What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Birmingham, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 17, 11:35 AM CST, 6 hours 45 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Issued at 1227 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
- Heavy Rainfall: A wet pattern will be in place with periods of rainfall expected at times across Central Alabama. Rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches, with localized higher amounts possible by Friday with the tropical system and cold front. Total amounts of 3 to 6 inches are possible through Monday.
- Severe Weather Threat: There is a marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe weather on Thursday. The main threat will be damaging winds and brief spin up tornadoes.
- There is also a marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe weather on Friday as the cold front works south into the area. The main threat will be damaging winds.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 17, 11:35 AM CST, 6 hours 45 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1235 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
- Heavy Rainfall: A wet pattern will be in place with periods of
rainfall expected at times across Central Alabama. Rainfall
totals of 2 to 5 inches, with localized higher amounts
possible by Friday with the tropical system and cold front.
Total amounts of 3 to 6 inches are possible through Monday.
- Severe Weather Threat: There is a marginal (level 1 out of 5)
risk for severe weather on Thursday. The main threat will be
damaging winds and brief spin up tornadoes.
- There is also a marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe
weather on Friday as the cold front works south into the area.
The main threat will be damaging winds.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1110 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
We are currently seeing a boundary lift northward from the Gulf
coast. Showers and storms will stream into the south through the
afternoon and then slide northward through the state by the
evening. Activity should remain under control for the most part.
Rainfall will be efficient and could be heavy with the stronger
storms through the afternoon, with a lull in activity through
midnight. The NHC has officially named the system in the Gulf
Tropical Storm Arthur. The outer rain shield from the remnants of
Arthur should begin moving into the southwest after 1 to 3 AM.
The exact extent of the rain shield will be determined by the
track of Arthur over the next 12 hours. A few models indicate a
more southern route, while others stay across the central section
of the state for Thursday. We will need to continue to monitor
for brief, spin-up tornadoes and damaging winds Thursday morning
into the afternoon as the system slides east while dissipating in
strength. The current forecast from the NHC still has the system
weakening to a depression by the time it reaches western
Louisiana before crossing into Mississippi. Besides the low
tornado threat, flash flooding may also be possible with any
banding features as the system moves through.
High rain chances linger into Friday as a surface front moves
into the area and interacts with the remaining tropical moisture.
The main concerns are flash flooding and damaging winds. There is
a marginal risk through the afternoon on Friday.
As the front pushes through on Friday afternoon, rain chances
will persist through the weekend due to the boundary stalling and
returning onshore flow. Another cold front may slip into the
northern half of the area Sunday night into Monday, which could
bring stronger storms. There is currently no consensus on how far
south the front will penetrate, so confidence remains low
regarding potential impacts. Temperatures will slowly creep back
up, contributing to diurnal convection into the first part of
next week.
16
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
A small line of showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving the
south right now and will impact the north in the next few hours.
This convection will clear by 23 to 00z, with a lull in rainfall
through 5 to 7z. The eastern edge of the rain shield from the
tropical system will slide into the western side of the area by 9
to 11z and then slowly edge east through the morning. Winds will
also increase through morning to generally 12 to 15 kts with
higher gusts. Ceilings will drop to IFR as well and should
persist through the rest of the TAF cycle. Confidence in
thunderstorms on Thursday is too low to include at this time.
16
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Increased rain chances continue as we will remain in a wet
pattern through early next week. Ample moisture in place will keep
MinRH values above 50% through the entire forecast period.
Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 74 80 71 85 / 30 90 60 70
Anniston 73 78 71 83 / 30 90 70 70
Birmingham 74 79 71 85 / 50 90 70 80
Tuscaloosa 74 81 72 85 / 70 100 60 90
Calera 73 78 71 86 / 50 100 70 80
Auburn 73 77 71 83 / 30 100 90 90
Montgomery 74 78 72 85 / 60 100 90 90
Troy 74 78 72 84 / 50 100 100 90
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Friday evening for the
following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Calhoun-
Chambers-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Greene-Hale-
Jefferson-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-
Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-
Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa.
&&
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 17, 12:49 PM CST, 5 hours 31 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
149 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026
ALZ050-171930-
Barbour AL-
149 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN BARBOUR COUNTY
THROUGH 230 PM CDT...
At 149 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Abbeville to 7 miles southeast of Blue
Springs to 7 miles southwest of Blue Springs State Park. Movement was
northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Clio, Louisville, Blue Springs, Tyler Crossroads, Osco, Texasville,
Gaino, Richards Crossroads, Blue Springs State Park, Millers Ford,
and Baker Hill.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3183 8553 3189 8519 3187 8513 3183 8514
3183 8513 3179 8513 3178 8514 3176 8513
3177 8515 3174 8521 3170 8522 3171 8541
3162 8542 3162 8562
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 209DEG 26KT 3154 8526 3159 8540 3156 8556
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
86/MartinSpecial weather statement, Jun 17, 1:41 PM CST, 4 hours 39 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
241 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026
ALZ023-172030-
Tuscaloosa AL-
241 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN TUSCALOOSA COUNTY
THROUGH 330 PM CDT...
At 241 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Moundville, or 14 miles southwest of Tuscaloosa, moving northeast at
30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Tuscaloosa, Northport, Holt, Moundville, Brookwood, Coker, McFarland
Mall, Shelton State Community College, Tuscaloosa Amphitheater,
Bryant Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa Regional Airport, Lake Wildwood,
University Mall, Deerlick Creek Campgrounds, Binion Creek Landing,
Lake Tuscaloosa, Englewood, Cottondale, East Brookwood, and Little
Sandy.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3341 8761 3328 8728 3300 8756 3301 8771
3302 8771 3302 8776
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 210DEG 24KT 3302 8767
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
12/RobinsonSpecial weather statement, Jun 17, 2:29 PM CST, 3 hours 51 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
329 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026
ALZ015-023-024-172115-
Walker AL-Jefferson AL-Tuscaloosa AL-
329 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL WALKER...
NORTHEASTERN TUSCALOOSA AND SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES THROUGH
415 PM CDT...
At 329 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Deerlick Creek Campgrounds, or near Holt, moving northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Brookwood, Sylvan Springs, Maytown, Gorgas Steam Plant, Bull City,
Gorgas, Deerlick Creek Campgrounds, Bankhead Lock And Dam, Binion
Creek Landing, Whitson, Lake Tuscaloosa, East Brookwood, Windham
Springs, Lake Harris, Lake Nicol, Wiley, Highway 69 Bridge,
Goodsprings, Fleetwood, and Sexton Bend.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3360 8747 3360 8742 3366 8743 3367 8742
3371 8731 3356 8699 3320 8733 3334 8766
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 210DEG 25KT 3332 8746
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
12/RobinsonSpecial weather statement, Jun 17, 3:49 PM CST, 2 hours 31 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
449 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026
ALZ044>046-172230-
Montgomery AL-Macon AL-Bullock AL-
449 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BULLOCK...WESTERN
MACON AND EAST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM CDT...
At 449 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pike Road, or 12 miles northeast of Meadville, moving northeast at 30
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Tuskegee, Milstead, Shorter, Franklin, Hardaway, Liverpool,
Victoryland, Davisville, Lake Tuskegee, Cross Keys, Mitchell, and
Cecil.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3212 8600 3222 8613 3244 8595 3245 8593
3245 8588 3247 8587 3248 8585 3249 8580
3253 8579 3238 8558
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 223DEG 27KT 3222 8603
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
12/RobinsonSpecial weather statement, Jun 17, 4:06 PM CST, 2 hours 14 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
506 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026
ALZ033-034-172300-
Bibb AL-Perry AL-
506 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN PERRY AND SOUTHERN
BIBB COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM CDT...
At 505 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Heiberger, or near Marion, moving northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Brent, Marion, Centreville, Heiberger, Eoline, West Centreville,
Trio, Morgan Springs, Folsom, Ellards, and Bibb County Airport.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3263 8736 3269 8745 3312 8722 3296 8693
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 215DEG 25KT 3272 8736
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
12/RobinsonSpecial weather statement, Jun 17, 4:29 PM CST, 1 hour 51 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
529 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026
ALZ045-047-172315-
Lee AL-Macon AL-
529 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LEE AND
NORTHEASTERN MACON COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM CDT...
At 529 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Tuskegee, moving northeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Auburn, Opelika, Tuskegee, Notasulga, Franklin, Waverly, Lake
Tuskegee, Auburn University, Tuskegee National Forest, Loachapoka,
Robert G. Pitts Airport, I 85 Rest Area, Uphapee Creek, Chewacla
State Park, Moton Field Municipal Airport, and Mount Jefferson.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3238 8571 3248 8585 3249 8580 3260 8570
3273 8561 3273 8543 3274 8543 3273 8533
3263 8521
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 225DEG 29KT 3245 8576
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
12/Robinson