Showers and thunderstorms developed ahead of a weak cold front during the afternoon hours on Tuesday (7/08) and tracked through east-central and northeast Wisconsin. The strongest storms produced damaging winds and large hail up to quarter size.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GRB wrote it up.
Showers and thunderstorms developed ahead of a weak cold front during the afternoon hours on Tuesday (7/08) and tracked through east-central and northeast Wisconsin. The strongest storms produced damaging winds and large hail up to quarter size.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Green Bay, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 8, 1:13 PM CST, 1 hour 23 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 213 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered storms will gradually diminish this evening. Isolated hail up to 1" or gusty winds could occur, mainly across far northeast Wisconsin. - Additional showers/storms likely (60-80% chance) late Friday into Saturday. Confidence in severe storms is low, but locally heavy rain may occur. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Scattered Storms Through This Evening... Broad mid-level trough will pass across the northern Great Lakes this afternoon into early evening. Overall, limited synoptic forcing and modest low-level convergence should tend to keep convection isolated to scattered and fairly disorganized, with the higher chances along the WI/MI border. Mid-level lapse rates should be rather weak, but RAP/SPC mesoanalysis suggest MLCAPE reaching 1000-1500 J/kg across eastern Wisconsin this afternoon. With 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear, hail or gusty winds could not be ruled out with any more persistent cores, especially across far northeast Wisconsin where temps aloft are cooler and forcing from the shortwave may be a bit stronger, but the overall threat looks quite limited. SPC did add a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe storms for a small area of northeast Wisconsin to account for this risk. Storms may persist into the evening before diminishing as instability wanes. Mid Week into Early Next Week... Surface ridging will provide dry weather for the mid-week period. The next period of focus for more impactful weather comes Friday into Saturday as a shortwave trough emerging from the central Rockies interacts with a broader trough approaching from the northern plains. Rich moisture will be advected northward in advance of this system with precipitable water values forecast to exceed the 90th percentile relative to climo, based on the NAEFS. Although synoptic and mesoscale details remain unclear, the environment would support the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Right now, the NBM shows the footprint of highest probabilities for at least 1" of rain during this time (30-50%) across parts of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The degree of destabilization remains unclear on Friday, and with relatively weak deep layer wind shear expected, the overall severe weather threat looks rather low for now, with the various machine-learning outputs showing general 5-15% probabilities for severe weather across the area on Friday. The timing of the wave could impact rain/storm chances heading through Saturday. Otherwise, a typical mid-July weather pattern will continue late this weekend into early next week with quasi-zonal flow across the northern tier of states and any showers/storms tied to lower predictability shortwave troughs. No clear precipitation signal is evident at this time. Temps generally look seasonable over the next week with a slow climb for mid to late week along with increasing humidity levels late this week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1159 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Scattered storms (30-60% chance) will develop by mid-afternoon before weakening in the evening. Some uncertainty in coverage exists, although the highest chances appear to be focused across far northeast Wisconsin. Updates likely will be needed, based on afternoon trends. Otherwise, a weak front will slide through this afternoon and evening with winds becoming light overnight. As low-level flow shifts northerly overnight, some guidance suggests MVFR/IFR stratus developing for a period overnight into Wednesday morning, so have trended that direction for this issuance. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MARINE...None. && DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...JM
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Green Bay WI 208 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-091915- Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln- Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano- Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago- Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County- Southern Oconto County- 208 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...Tonight Scattered thunderstorms are possible through the evening. Organized severe storms are not expected, but isolated hail or gusty winds are possible, mainly across far northeast Wisconsin. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday Additional thunderstorm chances return Friday into Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall is possible Friday afternoon and Friday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation should not be needed tonight. LMZ521-522-541>543-091915- The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan- 208 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake Michigan and the waters of Green Bay. .DAY ONE...Tonight Scattered thunderstorms will diminish through the evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday There is a chance of thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday.
The Marquette radar (KMQT), 97 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:37 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind, 3 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds downed trees and power lines near Aurora. The time of this report is an estimate based on radar data.
Thunderstorm winds downed trees and power lines down in Aurora.
Thunderstorm winds downed multiple trees in Pembine. The time of this report is an estimate based on radar data.
Quarter size hail fell near Pembine.
Quarter size hail fell near Suring.
Quarter size hail fell in McAllister. The time of this report is an estimate based on radar data.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Wisconsin in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Wisconsin, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1263523, 1263524, 1263526, 1263516, 1263518, 1263519.