Showers and thunderstorms tracked through central and east-central Wisconsin during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday (7/16) as a mesoscale convective vortex tracked along a cold front through southern Wisconsin. This system brought a brief period of heavy rainfall with rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches and locally higher amounts exceeding 5 inches across the area.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GRB wrote it up.
Showers and thunderstorms tracked through central and east-central Wisconsin during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday (7/16) as a mesoscale convective vortex tracked along a cold front through southern Wisconsin. This system brought a brief period of heavy rainfall with rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches and locally higher amounts exceeding 5 inches across the area. The heavy rain in a short period caused flash flooding as streets were covered in flowing water with multiple streets closed and vehicles stranded.
Some of the highest rainfall totals included 5.57 inches in Two Rivers (Manitowoc Co.), 5.52 inches in Poy Sippi (Waushara Co.), 4.95 inches in Manitowoc (Manitowoc Co.), 4.75 inches in Wautoma (Waushara Co.), and 3.95 inches in Menasha (Winnebago Co.).
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Green Bay, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 1:22 PM CST, 33 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 222 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Heavy rain across portions of central and east-central WI will taper off this evening. A Flood Watch is in effect for central WI until 7 pm and portions of east-central and northeast WI until 10 pm. - Small risk of severe storms continues through late afternoon across central and east-central WI. Damaging winds would be the primary risk along with torrential rainfall and possible flooding. - The warm and humid weather will come to an end tonight. Cooler and less humid on Thursday and Friday. - Small craft should exercise caution on the bay of Green Bay through late this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the bay and nearshore areas of Lake Michigan tonight into Thursday morning. - An active pattern is expected Friday night through the middle of next week with periodic chances of thunderstorms. Stronger storms and heavy rain are possible at times. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 219 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 A Mesoscale Convective Vortex continues to move across the region this afternoon, bringing showers and scattered thunderstorms to the region. Some of the strongest storms could produce strong or damaging winds, an isolated tornado and torrential rainfall across central and east-central WI. This feature will also bring in additional moisture as precipitable water values at Green Bay are expected to increase to 2.11 inches late this afternoon or near the daily record supporting the likelihood of heavy rainfall. The movement of the mesoscale convective vortex will support a nearly west to east band of heavy rain across portions of central into east-central Wisconsin. The greatest rainfall is expected to fall in a corridor from Marshfield to Wisconsin Rapids to Waupaca and Wautoma to Appleton and Oshkosh east to Kewaunee and Manitowoc. For locations south of Highway 29, HREF probabilities indicated a 50-90% chance of 1 inch of rain, 30-60% chance of 2 inches and a 10-30% chance of 3 inches. The greatest risk of heavy rain and flooding will continue for the remainder of the afternoon into early this evening. Rainfall rates in the heavier showers and storms could be as high as 1 to 3 inches per hour, resulting in urban street flooding and ponding of water on area roads while creeks and ditches may rise rapidly. Fishermen and boaters on rivers should anticipate river rises and faster flows from runoff Thursday and Friday. On the backside of the vortex, gusty northerly winds and building waves will result in hazardous conditions for small craft into Thursday morning. Also, low stratus is expected tonight, combined with northerly winds should keep any dense fog away. The big change will be the cooler weather and much less humid conditions. Highs on Thursday will only be in the upper 60s to middle 70s. The dewpoints will continue on Friday and then will increase again over the weekend. The westerlies will linger along the U.S./Canadian border through the rest of the forecast period. This will result in an active period with periodic chances of showers/storms next week. The potential exists for stronger storms and heavy rainfall at times. The first round of storms arrive Friday night into Saturday morning with dry conditions expected Saturday night into Sunday night. The chances of showers and storms return Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will be close to normal this weekend, then rise above normal for much of next week. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 115 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 An area of showers, with IFR cigs, was located in north-central WI early this afternoon as isolated showers and storms, with MVFR cigs, began to develop across central and east-central WI. Anticipate the area of showers and IFR/LIFR cigs to continue across north-central WI through this evening, followed by a brief lull in precip, with additional showers occurring through late tonight. The central and east-central WI TAF sites, including KOSH, will see the greatest risk for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening as a complex of showers and thunderstorms moves from WSW to ENE. The thunderstorms will bring heavy downpours causing reduced vsbys, gusty winds, and MVFR/IFR cigs. Have all of the storms ending at the central and east-central WI TAF sites around 00-01z Thu, but a few showers may linger for a few hours after the storms end. IFR cigs are expected to continue at all TAF sites through early Thursday morning before slowly lifting and dissipating towards the end of the TAF period. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for WIZ030-031-035>037- 045. Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for WIZ038>040-048>050. && DISCUSSION.....Eckberg AVIATION.......Kruk
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Green Bay WI 216 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-171930- Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln- Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano- Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago- Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County- Southern Oconto County- 216 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...Tonight Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across the area for the rest of the afternoon into this evening. A few strong or severe storms are possible through late afternoon, generally south of Highway 29. Damaging winds and heavy rain will be the main threats along with flooding. An isolated tornado is also possible. A Tornado Watch is in effect until 6 pm for portions of central and east-central WI. The cluster of showers and storms will also contain locally heavy rainfall. Some of the stronger storms could produce rainfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour, resulting in localized flooding. A Flood Watch is in effect into this evening across central and east-central WI. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday There are on and off chances for thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday and then again towards the middle of next week. It is too early to determine if or when any severe storms are possible. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible at times. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are requested to report any flooding or wind damage to the National Weather Service in Green Bay. LMZ521-522-541>543-171930- The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan- 216 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake Michigan and the waters of Green Bay. .DAY ONE...Tonight Thunderstorms will pose a significant hazard to mariners for the rest of the afternoon into this evening. Some of the storms will produce strong winds and heavy rainfall that could reduce visibilities below one mile for a brief period of time. Small craft should exercise caution on the bay for the rest of the afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the bay and nearshore areas of Lake Michigan tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the bay and nearshore areas of Lake Michigan through Thursday morning. Thunderstorms are possible Saturday, and again at times next week that would pose a hazard to mariners. Eckberg
The Green Bay radar (KGRB), 118 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:56 UTC.
4 flash flood, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds downed multiple trees in Richford. The time of this report is an estimate based on radar data.
Rainfall of 4 to 5.5 inches in a short time caused flash flooding on highway 21 between Coloma and Wautoma as well as in the city of Wautoma. Highway 21 was closed between Coloma and Wautoma with multiple roads closed in Wautoma due to street flooding. Multiple vehicles were stalled with passengers rescued by boat. The time of this report is an estimate based on radar.
Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches in a short time caused flash flooding in the city of Oshkosh and just south of Neenah. The time of this report is an estimate based on radar data.
Rainfall of around 2 inches in a short time caused flash flooding near Stockbridge off WI-55. The time of this report is an estimate based on radar data.
Rainfall of 4 to 5.5 inches in a short time caused flash flooding in the city of Manitowoc and south of Shoto. Multiple roads were closed with vehicles stranded. The time of this report is an estimate based on radar data.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Wisconsin in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Wisconsin, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1263791, 1263792, 1263794, 1263793, 1263795.