Rip Current in Texas, October 14, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
630 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 630 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

 - Moderate risk of rip currents are expected through this evening
   and again this weekend along beaches of the lower Texas coast.

 - A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect until 7 AM Tuesday for
   narrow beaches and minor coastal flooding.

 - There is a medium (30 to 40 percent) chance of showers and
   thunderstorms through Tuesday.

 - Temperatures gradually warm above normal by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

A strong 500mb low swings inland along the West Coast and into
the Rockies by late this week, nudging the ridge across Texas out
into the northern Gulf. Weak low pressure and a passing shortwave
bring a brief medium (30-40 percent) chance of showers and
thunderstorms tonight into Tuesday afternoon under the ridge. POPs
then drop to below 10 percent Wednesday through Saturday. A
surface low develops across the Southern Plains over the weekend
and drops into East Texas by Sunday, dragging a cold front south
toward Deep South Texas, with a low (less than 25 percent) chance
of showers or thunderstorms.

Expect seasonal temperatures gradually warming through mid-week,
warming a couple of degrees above normal Friday, and then adding a
couple more degrees on Saturday and Sunday, bringing a moderate
(level 2 of 4) Heat Risk back to Deep South Texas and near triple
digit heat across the brush country and upper valley.

Life-threatening rip currents will continue along the lower Texas
coast Tuesday and return again this weekend into early next week.
Astronomical tides continue to diminish into mid-week with narrow
beaches still likely Tuesday night, but probably falling short of
any Coastal Flood Statement, especially with a lack of surf to
push high tide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

VFR will prevail through the forecast period at all TAF sites, but
brief periods of MVFR ceilings/visibility cannot be ruled out as
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms develop through
the day. The latest radar imagery reveals light showers over the
Gulf waters, and high res guidance indicates isolated to scattered
activity should develop along the immediate coast by mid to late
morning before coming to an end this evening. Otherwise, expect
east winds generally below 10 knots through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

The pressure gradient continues to weaken with generally light to
moderate onshore flow turning southeasterly into next weekend. A
weak cold front may work south through the coastal waters on
Sunday with light to moderate northeasterly winds. Coastal showers
and isolated thunderstorms are possible through Tuesday morning
and again Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             88  71  88  71 /  30   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               89  67  90  66 /  40   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 92  71  93  69 /  30   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         91  68  92  66 /  20  10   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      85  78  84  77 /  30   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     86  71  86  71 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...22-Garcia