Drought in Texas, November 18 to 30, 2025

Name: Drought in Texas, November 18 to 30, 2025
Start: 2025-11-18T00:00
End: 2025-11-30T23:59
Location: Texas

November 18 to 30, 2025 · NWS BRO · 5 events in 5 counties and zones

Persistent dry and near-record warm conditions into mid November exacerbated already low soil moisture levels across the South Texas Brush Country over to Kenedy County, resulting in expansion of Severe (D2) Drought toward the coast, including Padre Island National Seashore, and introduction of Extreme (D3) Drought in northeast Jim Hogg, northern Brooks, and northwest Kenedy on November 18th.…

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 5 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 5

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.

The extent of cattle impacts, such as herd culling and water shortages, were unknown as of this writing.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 17, 10:53 PM CST, 1 hour 7 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

Updated at 1047 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 * Very warm, breezy, rain-free weather conditions are expected to persist through early next week. * Record to near record-breaking temperatures will take place through this week. * South-southeast winds 10-20 mph gusting up to 30 mph will take place nearly each day through early next week. * A nearby frontal boundary and a couple of mid-upper storm systems will result in low rain chances generally ranging between 15-30% across the region Thursday through early next week. * Moderate to breezy winds will result in at times adverse marine and coastal conditions through early next week.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 17, 10:53 PM CST, 1 hour 7 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1053 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1047 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

* Very warm, breezy, rain-free weather conditions are expected to
  persist through early next week.

* Record to near record-breaking temperatures will take place
  through this week.

* South-southeast winds 10-20 mph gusting up to 30 mph will take
  place nearly each day through early next week.

* A nearby frontal boundary and a couple of mid-upper storm systems
  will result in low rain chances generally ranging between 15-30%
  across the region Thursday through early next week.

* Moderate to breezy winds will result in at times adverse marine
  and coastal conditions through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1047 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Very warm temperatures and mainly rain-free weather conditions
will persist through the forecast period or through next Tuesday.
Located on its northwestern flank, a strengthening 591-588 dam
heat ridge will drive record to near record-breaking temps through
this week with anomalies on the order of 10-15F degrees above
average (see CLIMATE SECTION).

An enhanced pressure gradient courtesy of a nearby weak shortwave
trough over the Sierra Madre and a sfc high pressure system to
our east coupled with a couple of mid-upper low pressure systems
that will dive into the Desert Southwest before translating
eastward will activate low level jet (LLJ) winds and increase
kinematics or wind energy over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
valley through early next week. South-southeast winds 10-20 mph
with gusts up to 30 mph will almost be a daily occurrence through
next Tuesday. These winds will result in at times slightly
adverse marine conditions with moderate wave heights and rip
current risk through early next week (see MARINE SECTION).

Midweek through early next week, an approaching or nearby frontal
boundary associated with a couple of mid-upper level troughs that
will dive into the Desert Southwest before translating eastward into
the southern Plains could trigger a daily or near daily threat of
showers and thunderstorms. Jet dynamics and other forcings are more
supportive further to the north across central and north Texas.

That said, we continue to maintain a general low risk/probability
(15- 30%) of showers and thunderstorms each day from Thursday to
Monday night. On Thursday, the greatest probabilities will be
located over the Northern Ranchlands. Afterwards, the best or
highest chances for precipitation will be closer to the coast.
Saturday presents a more widespread chance for showers and storms
with probabilities ranging between 20-40%. Chances will be
slightly higher during this time period over the Gulf Waters.

Daytime high temperatures will range from the upper 80s to the mid
90s Tuesday through Friday across Deep South Texas and the Rio
Grande valley. Saturday through early next week, temperatures will
be slightly cooler but still above normal levels as the mid-upper
trough shifts eastward towards the region resulting in increased
cloud coverage and rain chances. Daytime highs Saturday through
Tuesday of next week will be in the 80s across Deep South Texas.
Overnight lows through Sunday night will be in the 60s and 70s.
Monday night through Tuesday night, overnight lows will be in the
50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1047 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Through 06z Wednesday.....VFR conditions will by and large prevail
through the 06z TAF cycle. MVFR ceilings are possible from time
to time. Cloud coverage will range between SCT-BKN during the day
and FEW-SCT at night.

Southeast winds will remain elevated through much of the forecast
period. Tonight winds will weaken slightly with speeds between 5-10
kts. During the day on Tuesday, southeast winds will strengthen with
speeds between 10-15 kts gusting as high as 25 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1047 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

An enhanced pressure gradient will result in moderate to breezy
southerly winds through the forecast period. These winds will
result in moderate rip current risk and seas with wave heights
ranging between 3-6 feet. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC)
conditions will at time be met during the forecast period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1047 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

A record high of 93F degrees was set at McAllen today. This broke
the previous record of 92F degrees set in 2024. A strengthening 588-
591 dam mid-level heat ridge will continue to drive record to near
record-breaking temperatures through at least the middle parts of
this week. Below are a list of records over the next few days for
Brownsville, Harlingen, and McAllen.

Tuesday, November 18, 2025 Record High Temperatures
Brownsville: 92F in 2024
Harlingen: 91F in 2024
McAllen: 96F in 2024

Wednesday, November 19, 2025 Record High Temperatures
Brownsville: 92F in 1964
Harlingen: 92F in 2011
McAllen: 94F in 1988

Thursday, November 20, 2025 Record High Temperatures
Brownsville: 88F in 2013 & 1900
Harlingen: 93F in 1988
McAllen: 92F in 1994

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             88  73  89  73 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN               90  69  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 93  72  93  73 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         94  70  94  71 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      82  76  83  76 /   0   0   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     87  70  87  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...23-Evbuoma
LONG TERM....23-Evbuoma
AVIATION...23-Evbuoma

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

5 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Brooks

When: November 18, 12:00 AM CST to November 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Brooks forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 27.032, -98.219 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme (D3) Drought developed across the northern tier of Brooks County, including ranches along State Highway 285, on November 18th and continued through and beyond month's end. The combination of dryness, warm to hot temperatures, and very low soil moisture contributed to the worsening condition. Severe (D2) Drought continued elsewhere, except the southeast corner, of the county.

Drought, Inland Kenedy County

When: November 18, 12:00 AM CST to November 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Inland Kenedy County forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 26.928, -97.636 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme (D3) Drought developed across the northwest tier of Kenedy County, including Sarita and ranches just south of State Highway 285, on November 18th and continued through and beyond month's end. The combination of dryness, warm to hot temperatures, and very low soil moisture contributed to the worsening condition. Severe (D2) Drought continued elsewhere across northwest Kenedy County.

Drought, Jim Hogg

When: November 18, 12:00 AM CST to November 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Jim Hogg forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 27.043, -98.697 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme (D3) Drought developed across the eastern third of Jim Hogg County, including Hebbronville and ranches along and south of State Highway 285, on November 18th and continued through and beyond month's end. The combination of dryness, warm to hot temperatures, and very low soil moisture contributed to the worsening condition. Severe (D2) Drought continued elsewhere in the county.

Drought, Coastal Kenedy

When: November 18, 12:00 AM CST to November 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Coastal Kenedy forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 26.928, -97.636 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme (D3) Drought developed across the the northern third of coastal Kenedy County, on November 18th and continued through and beyond month's end. The combination of dryness, warm to hot temperatures, and very low soil moisture contributed to the worsening condition here.

Drought, Kenedy Island

When: November 18, 12:00 AM CST to November 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Kenedy Island forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 26.928, -97.636 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme (D3) Drought developed across the the northern third of the Kenedy County portion of Padre Island National Seashore (PINS), on November 18th and continued through and beyond month's end. The combination of dryness, warm to hot temperatures, and very low soil moisture contributed to the worsening condition here.

What these are

Drought: A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Texas in 2025 Every state in 2025 This day in weather history Warnings in Texas, November 2025

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1302351, 1302352, 1302353, 1302354, 1302355.