A very hot and unstable atmosphere across the Rolling Plains east of a dryline allowed scattered thunderstorms to develop. At the same time, a convectively reinforced cold front was moving southward through the southern Texas Panhandle.
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The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
A very hot and unstable atmosphere across the Rolling Plains east of a dryline allowed scattered thunderstorms to develop. At the same time, a convectively reinforced cold front was moving southward through the southern Texas Panhandle. Upper level ridging and a strong cap kept thunderstorms from becoming widespread and did not develop until early in the evening. A well mixed boundary layer within the hot surface temperatures allowed these storms to produce several severe wind gusts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 24, 4:58 PM CST, 1 hour 56 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 558 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this evening mainly east of the Caprock. - Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue throughout the upcoming week, with severe storms possible each day. - Cooler temperatures begin Monday and continue through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 A surface low in the vicinity of Childress has pulled the dryline eastward to near a Childress to Post to Lamesa line as of early afternoon. West of the surface low extends a cold front across the far southern Panhandle as far south as Plainview to Muleshoe. Despite hot temperatures in the moist air mass east of the dryline (note the 100/63 temp/dew at Aspermont), no cumulus has yet developed in the forecast area, a sign of the strength of the cap. Models have the cap hanging on strong and suggest it will be very late in the day into early evening before it will be broken. The best chances of that occurring per the models are along the dryline and will tailor the better chances for thunderstorms in the first part of the evening across the southeastern third of the forecast area. As the surface low weakens this evening south winds should surge northward through the Rolling Plains and adjacent parts of the South Plains, and moisture advection with that mechanism could see thunderstorms build northward toward the far southeastern Panhandle mid to late evening. Severe remains a threat but could be a bit more limited than previously anticipated with lessening instability in the post-sunset time frame. After retreating northward tonight, the cold front will make another appearance into the forecast area Sunday afternoon and will become the focus for thunderstorm development. The cap will likely be weaker tomorrow with some modest height falls the next 24 hours. Rich low level moisture to the east of the dryline and wrapping northward behind the cold front will result in very healthy instability and a noted increase in the severe risk over today. Temperatures across the northern zones should held a bit in check behind the cold front, but in general will again prefer the warmer NBM over MOS guidance for highs Sunday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 Next week is looking to be an active week with cooler temperatures and precipitation chances through next weekend. The first round of active weather will begin Sunday afternoon as a deepening upper trough moves through central CONUS bringing strong southwesterly flow aloft aiding in upper level ascent. By Sunday evening, a dryline will set up around the I-27 corridor as a frontal boundary pushes south into the region. Models depict the boundary to reach northern portions of the CWA by late tomorrow afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop east of the dryline and south of the frontal boundary. Severe thunderstorms are possible with soundings showing MUCAPE values exceeding 4500 J/kg and bulk shear magnitudes around 30 kt. Damaging wind, large hail, heavy rain, and an isolated tornado or two are possible with any severe thunderstorms that develop. Timing and location of thunderstorm development is uncertain at this time as it will depend on the timing and location of the frontal boundary. The upper trough will continue to track over the Central Plains Monday, strengthening southwesterly flow aloft in the morning through early afternoon before shifting to zonal flow by late afternoon as the trough moves off. Another round of thunderstorms is possible Monday. Although forcing aloft will be weak due to the wind shift, decent instability and bulk shear will support any convective development through the afternoon and evening. There will be a break in precipitation Monday night through Tuesday morning however a third round of convection is expected to develop over western portions of the FA and build eastward Tuesday afternoon as the dryline sets up near the TX/NM border. Thunderstorms for Monday and Tuesday is highly uncertain as development will be dependent on location of remnant boundaries from prior day convection which are not resolvable at this time therefore, slight chance to chance NBM PoPs were kept. Precipitation chances continue mid-week through the weekend although, confidence in occurrence is low. Models are not in agreement with the upper level pattern for the latter half of the week. Flow aloft seems to remain zonal with embedded shortwaves tracking over the region and lingering low level moisture supports precipitation chances through the rest of the week. Temperatures next week are expected to be cooler than the previous week with highs in the 70s to 80s through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 558 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 A band of storms continues to grow to the east of KLBB and KPVW, and will stay east of the terminals. KCDS has the best potential for STG-SVR storms tonight, and the PROB30 group has been maintained with this TAF cycle. LLWS will occur at all terminals tonight, with shear magnitudes near 35-40 kt as low as 300 ft AGL at KLBB and KPVW; and as low as 500 ft AGL at KCDS. SVR storms are forecast develop quickly by tomorrow afternoon, with the highest chances near KCDS, with more-isolated storm development farther southward into KLBB and KPVW. Timing will continue to be refined in the forthcoming TAF cycles. VFR prevails outside of TSTMs. Sincavage && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...09
Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED National Weather Service Lubbock TX 228 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 TXZ021>044-251930- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 228 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop or move into the South Plains area after 6 PM with storm chances continuing through the evening hours. The best chance for thunderstorms will be south and east of a Paducah to Tahoka line. The strongest storms will be capable or producing golf ball size hail and wind gusts up to 70 mph. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Severe thunderstorms are possible across most of the region on Sunday with the highest chance of severe weather focused off the Caprock. All severe hazards will be possible on Sunday, including very large hail, damaging wind gusts, heavy rain, and a tornado or two. Thunderstorm chances will continue across the entire region Monday through the rest of the week. Some storms may be severe. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed.
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 96 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:06 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind, 1 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.
LANDSPOUT. Location: 33.490N/100.920W. A storm chaser uploaded a photograph to social media of a brief landspout tornado west of Spur.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Spur measured a wind gust to 61 mph.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Guthrie measured severe wind gusts from 1952 CST through 1959 CST. A peak wind gust of 67 mph was measured at 1959 CST.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Graham measured a severe wind gust of 60 mph.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Aspermont measured a severe wind gust of 61 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1253643, 1253642, 1253644, 1253646, 1253645.