A deepening upper-level low pressure over the north Great Plains with a strong jet streak extending southwest from this feature produced high winds across the Guadalupe Mountains.
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The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
A deepening upper-level low pressure over the north Great Plains with a strong jet streak extending southwest from this feature produced high winds across the Guadalupe Mountains.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 15, 1:45 PM CST, 53 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 245 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 145 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 - High winds are possible, mainly in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains, as soon as Saturday afternoon. These winds could last intermittently through Tuesday afternoon. - Severe thunderstorms are possible late Saturday afternoon and night over the Western Low Rolling Plains, southeast Permian Basin, and lower Trans Pecos. - At least elevated fire weather conditions are possible through next week, mainly in areas along and west of the Pecos. Increasing winds beginning Saturday may result in critical fire weather conditions in these areas, especially Sunday and Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 A weak cold front swept into our area earlier this morning, resulting in highs about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday. However, westerly and southwesterly winds return this afternoon and subtle ridging begins to move in within the upper levels. Lows tonight settle into the 50s over portions of southeastern New Mexico, the northwestern Permian Basin, and the higher elevation in Texas. 60s are expected for most, while those near the Rio Grande hover in the 70s. Friday, hotter temperatures begin to make a comeback as an upper ridge progresses over our area. Highs in the 90s become more common and triple digit heat expands in coverage in our southern counties. Although, lee troughing brings another weak cold front in the morning into southeastern New Mexico, keeping highs in the 80s. Friday night sees lows mainly in the 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Saturday, an upper trough is forecast to reside over Baja, while a secondary, stronger trough will be making landfall on the west coast in NoCal. As this secondary trough digs southeast, leeside troughing on the Front Range will begin increasing southwesterly flow out west, w/the NAM developing a marginal mountain wave signature over the Guadalupes during the afternoon. Winds look right on the fence for warning criteria and, being the 4th period, we'll hold off on a watch for now, saving our powder for Sunday. BLDU looks possible either way, however. Even so, these increased winds will add a downslope warming component to already-increasing thicknesses, with afternoon highs topping out ~ 5-7 F above climatology. These winds will also sharpen up a dryline on the eastern fringes of the CWA. If convection initiates on this feature before it is shunted east, deep layer shear looks sufficient for a few cells to go severe. Sunday, the trough begins tilting negatively, w/the mountain wave signature over the Guadalupes. This looks to be the beginning of a long-fused high wind event in the mountains that could last until Tuesday, when the trough clears West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Soils continue to dry out, so BLDU is a given. Increased downslope winds may add a degree or so to Saturday's highs, making Sunday the warmest day this forecast. This could be a critical fire weather day, as well. See Fire Weather Discussion below for further details. A dryline will reside on the eastern periphery of the CWA, maintaining a slight chance of convection there. Monday, the trough arrives at the Four Corners by early afternoon, and a Pac front pushes through late. This will start a downtrend in thicknesses, and shave maybe a degree off Sunday's highs. Tuesday, the trough finally moves through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, dropping a cold front in behind it late. This will be the coolest day of this forecast, as highs struggle up to right around normal. Wednesday/Thursday look uneventful, with temperatures recovering slightly under zonal flow aloft. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 VFR conditions look to prevail this afternoon. Easterly and northeasterly winds at HOB and CNM should become slightly breezy out of the southwest over the next couple of hours. Southwesterly winds are expected at all terminals this afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Despite recent rains, NASA SPoRT moisture products suggest soils are drying out very quickly, and any benefits from the past couple of weeks is quickly diminishing. As a result, single-digit relative humidity is forecast for most of the area through at least next Wednesday, coinciding with poor recovery each night. At least elevated fire weather conditions will be possible each day, mainly west of the Pecos. Concerns begin to increase beginning Saturday as 20-ft winds begin increasing w/the approach of the next upper trough. This activity could peak Sunday afternoon as high temperatures/low RH tag-team with increased 20-ft winds to yield extreme RFTI (7-8) over most of the area along/west of the Pecos. However, the trough has slowed slightly in the past 24 hours, and Monday now looks almost as critical as Sunday. ERCs continue to increase, and by Sunday, most of the area west of the Pecos should be in the 75th percentile or higher. Stay tuned... && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 63 95 65 95 / 0 0 0 10 Carlsbad 59 92 65 91 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 71 101 71 100 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Stockton 67 95 70 96 / 0 0 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 58 82 63 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 56 88 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 56 87 61 88 / 0 0 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 65 94 68 95 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 64 92 68 93 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 60 93 65 95 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && SHORT TERM...95 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...95
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A maximum wind gust of 64 MPH was measured at the West Texas Mesonet site, GDBT2, The Bowl.
A maximum wind gust of 60 MPH was recorded at the West Texas Mesonet site, Guadalupe Mountains National Park, near Guadalupe Pass.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1254773, 1254774.