Heavy Snow and Winter Weather in Texas, March 8 to 9, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1106 AM CST Sat Mar 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1106 AM CST Sat Mar 8 2025

 - Widespread precipitation for much of the area today into this
   evening with accumulating snowfall likely for much of the far
   southern Texas Panhandle.

 - Low chances for thunderstorms exist across the Rolling Plains
   through this afternoon, and severe weather is not expected.

 - A warm, dry, and windy pattern is expected for much of
   next week potentially leading to several days of fire weather
   concerns.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 AM CST Sat Mar 8 2025

Thunderstorms have been added into the grids across most of the
Rolling Plains through 21Z. GLM data has detected consistent, low
strike densities over the last 90 minutes within the WAA-induced
convection that continues to advect northeastward. WSR-88D data
has also detected a couple of pulsating cores to 50 dBz, but are
confined to only a few range bins. Storms will remain localized
across the Rolling PLains, and severe weather is not expected.
The forecast remains on track otherwise. Please reference the
short-term discussion below for additional information.

Sincavage

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CST Sat Mar 8 2025

The storm that will bring widespread precipitation to the forecast
area is centered near Gallup, NM early this morning with a projected
path that will take it across the southern part of the forecast area
this afternoon and early evening. Satellite imagery is showing a
well developed system and blossoming cloud cover and cooling cloud
tops over the forecast area as deep lift is developing, in part
kicked off by low level frontogenetical forcing behind a cold front
that has moved from northeast to southwest across the forecast area.
Radar imagery is confirming with the development of precipitation in
an area of elevated convective instability to the south of the
forecast area from the eastern Permian Basin to the Big Country
while farther to the west closer to the upper low an area of light
stratiform precipitation is developing across east-central New
Mexico. Overall, the inherited forecast is in low with some
adjustments to account for the farther south and slightly slower
track of the upper low. This track will favor development of banding
of precipitation the north of the low now likely as far south as the
far southern Panhandle and northern South Plains/Rolling Plains with
an end to the event now expected deeper into the evening hours.
Precipitation phase remains problematic (as is typical in early
March). Post-frontal low level cold advection alone will not be
enough to get us to accumulating snowfall temperatures, but the
added benefit of evaporative and dynamic cooling mechanisms should
get us there on the Caprock and where those heavier bands develop.
To the east of the Caprock accumulating snowfall will be a bit more
problematic (although not out of the question) with models
suggesting there will be about 800 ft above the surface where the
column will be above 0C. That should enough depth to melt much of
the snow apart from the heaviest bands, and progged wet bulb zero
temperatures greater 0C near the surface support this idea as well.
Finally, there should be an orographic component as north to
northeast surface flow lifts onto the Caprock from Palo Duro Canyon
resulting in enhanced snowfall amounts just downwind from the rim
across parts of Swisher and Briscoe counties. We will be helped by
surface temperatures being at or slightly above 32F for most of the
event, but banding precipitation could be heavy enough to cause some
problems. Will issue a Winter Weather Advisory for Parmer to Briscoe
and southward into Hale and Floyd where 1-2 inches should be most
likely.

Have lowered high temperatures in line with the cloud cover,
widespread precipitation, and modest low level cold advection while
overnight lows need no adjustments at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 230 AM CST Sat Mar 8 2025

Quiet and dry weather is set to make a quick return to the region on
Sunday as a low amplitude upper level ridge builds overhead in the
wake of the departing upper low. The associated midlevel height
increases will result in a notable warm-up compared to today,
although lingering cool surface ridging will keep highs capped in
the upper 50s to mid 60s, which is near or just a bit below normal
for this time of year. Flow aloft will then become more
southwesterly during the first half of the upcoming week, bringing a
return of fairly persistent lee surface troughing over SE CO and NE
NM. This in turn will result in stronger southwesterly surface flow
and much warmer temperatures with highs in the 70s across most of
the forecast area Monday with some 80s off the Caprock on Tuesday,
with elevated to near-critical fire danger looking likely both days
as well. During the midweek period, models are in good agreement
depicting an initially closed upper low over SoCal transitioning into
an open wave as it shifts quickly eastward over the desert SW into
West Texas. This will bring a period of even stronger westerly
surface flow and critical fire danger to the region on Wednesday
before more modest southwesterlies return on Thursday. Late in the
week, yet another very potent upper level storm system will approach
the region, with models in excellent agreement for this lead time
depicting a sharp upper trough deepening over the Great Basin before
acquiring a slightly negative tilt as it ejects over the southern
and central plains states. Should this evolution come to fruition, a
high wind event would be possible over our area on Friday along with
widespread critical fire weather conditions, but this is still a low
confidence outcome at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1106 AM CST Sat Mar 8 2025

Poor flying conditions are expected through tomorrow morning. MVFR
CIGs will continue to lower into IFR at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW; and
LIFR will be possible at KCDS and KPVW. Confidence in LIFR remains
too low to warrant inclusion in the TAF at this time, but trends
will continue to be monitored. Rain/snow mix will also affect KCDS
and KPVW through late tonight, with precipitation coming to an end
before sunrise tomorrow. Winds will remain breezy while steadily
backing northward throughout the day. VFR is expected to return
prior to 09/12Z at all terminals.

Sincavage

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for
TXZ021>024-029-030.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...09

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1246 PM CST Sat Mar 8 2025

TXZ021>044-091900-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1246 PM CST Sat Mar 8 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until midnight tonight
for the far southern Texas Panhandle and northeastern South Plains.
Snowfall accumulations up to 1 inch are forecast, with some isolated
amounts of 3 to 4 inches possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions may develop each
afternoon from Monday through Friday. Strong winds may develop on
Friday.