Drought in Texas, March 18 to 31, 2025

Name: Drought in Texas, March 18 to 31, 2025
Start: 2025-03-18T00:00
End: 2025-03-31T23:59
Location: Texas

March 18 to 31, 2025 · NWS BRO · 7 events in 7 counties and zones

Another week of extremely dry conditions between March 11-17, combined with periodic gusty winds and occasional heat spikes, worsened drought to Extreme (D3) across Starr, Jim Hogg, and Zapata Counties, and expanded Severe (D2) conditions to parts of all counties in Deep South Texas. Relative humidity averaged below 15 percent for the week leading up to March 18th for most of the region.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 7 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 7

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.

Some good fortune smiled on the region toward the end of March, as a historic flood impacted much of the Lower Rio Grande Valley, with welcome but lesser rains across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains. While much of the rain was not completely absorbed by parched soil (due to runoff), the rains would reduce the drought footprint by April 1st.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 17, 11:43 PM CST, 17 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 17, 11:43 PM CST, 17 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1243 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

We expect warm and dry weather to continue through the short term
period. Upper-level ridging shifting eastward from the Central US
to the East Coast looks to support a surface high over the
Southeastern US and Central Gulf. A the same time, an upper level
trough crossing the front range of the Rockies looks to support
the development of a surface low over the High Plains Tuesday
morning. The interaction of these pressure systems will tighten
pressure gradients along the Texas Coast extending into the
Midwest. A 30 kt LLJ looks to develop along the Texas Coast
Tuesday morning, with stronger winds mixing down to the surface
through Tuesday evening.

Wind gusts will likely exceed Wind Advisory criteria for Southern
Hidalgo County, Cameron County, and much of Willacy County
Tuesday afternoon. A Wind Advisory has been issued for Southern
Hidalgo, Inland Willacy, and Inland and Coastal Cameron Counties
from noon Tuesday until 7 PM Tuesday evening.

Additionally, the stronger winds combined with low afternoon RH
values and dry fuels will support enhanced fire weather concerns
through the afternoon across Deep South Texas. A Red Flag Warning
for the eastern half of the CWA, except for the immediate coast
and barrier islands, will go into effect at noon Tuesday and
continue through 8 PM. The western half of the CWA will likely see
slightly lower wind speeds, however a Fire Danger Statement will
be needed for those counties Tuesday afternoon. See the Fire
Weather section for more info.

Finally, stronger winds offshore will support building seas
tonight and Tuesday, resulting in a Moderate Risk for Rip Currents
tonight, and a High Risk of Rip Currents Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Key message:

*  There will be an elevated fire weather threat Wednesday in the
   wake of a cold front (see the Fire Weather section below).

Summary: Loaded the NBM without significant adjustment. A dry cold
front will arrive Wednesday morning, prolonging fire weather
concerns but also ushering in a couple of days (Thursday and
Friday) of milder weather with temps nearer normal. Temperatures
will trend higher again this weekend, with the next cold front
slated for next Monday morning.

A Plains storm system will move rapidly east over the Central Plains
Tuesday into Wednesday, with a front reaching the CWA Wednesday
morning. We don't expect much (if any) rain with the front, but a
few coastal showers could develop as the front moves offshore.
High temps will be in the mid to upper 80s. Dry, desert high
pressure and H5 ridging building in behind the front will do
little to nothing to ease the current drought and elevated fire
weather threat.

However, temperatures will cool for Thursday morning through Friday
while high pressure spreads over the area. Lows will be in the 50s
and 60s. Thursday high temps will be a skosh (2 to 3 degrees) lower
than normal (upper 70s) and Friday high temps will be a skosh above
normal (lower to mid 80s), with normal being around 80. Temps will
trend higher this weekend, with low temps in the 60s and high temps
in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Breezy onshore winds will develop again on Friday as the pressure
gradient tightens in response to another weather system tracking
through the Plains. A third, somewhat deeper storm system moving
into the Northern Plains with an H5 ridge building over the West
will support a cold front pushing through the Southern High Plains
into Texas on Sunday. This front should reach the Gulf of America
Monday morning, with a few showers showing up over the Lower RGV
Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

Mostly clear skies and light to moderate southeast winds prevail
across Deep South Texas early this morning. VFR conditions will
continue for the next 24 hours. Winds will remain moderate to
occasionally gusty overnight. Today will be a very windy with
southeasterly winds increasing after daybreak. Strong winds of 25
to 30 kts are likely by the afternoon, with gusts to or exceeding
35 kts, especially at BRO and HRL.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Tonight through Tuesday night...Pressure gradients along the
Lower Texas Coast look to tighten tonight and through Tuesday
night, thanks to the interaction of a strengthening surface high
pressure system over the Central Gulf and a developing surface low
pressure system over the High Plains. Additionally, tightening of
the pressure gradients is possible Tuesday afternoon and evening,
ahead of a cold front associated with the aforementioned surface
low. Wind speeds will increase in response to the pressure
gradient, resulting in building seas through the period. Small
Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines will likely be needed for
the coastal waters tonight, and a Small Craft Advisory will
likely be needed Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Wednesday through Saturday night...

Key message:

*   Enhanced marine winds and seas in the wake of a Wednesday cold
    front will prolong less than optimal marine conditions through
    Thursday.

Fresh to strong north to northeast marine winds will develop on
Wednesday in the wake of a cold front, rebuilding seas. The result
will be low end small craft advisory conditions Wednesday through
Thursday. Thursday night through Saturday night will be a recovery
period with weaker winds and lower seas.|

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Tuesday: The Fire Weather Watch Tuesday has been upgraded to a
Red Flag Warning for Hidalgo, Brooks, Inland Kenedy, Inland
Willacy, and Inland Cameron counties from noon Tuesday until 8 PM
Tuesday evening.

Relative humidity values look to recover to around 80% tonight
across the area. Sustained southeasterly winds will continue to
advect some additional moisture to the area. This will keep minimum
relative humidity values slightly higher Tuesday afternoon than they
were today, around 20-30% across Zapata, Jim Hogg and Starr
Counties, and 30-45% across the eastern half of the CWA, excluding
the immediate coast and barrier islands. However, tightening
pressure gradients along the Texas Coast look to support higher wind
speeds Tuesday, with 20 ft winds reaching at least 25 mph across the
eastern half of the CWA. Wind speeds across the western half of the
CWA looks to remain slightly lower, topping out around 20 mph
Tuesday afternoon.

In spite of the higher humidity values Tuesday, these higher wind
speeds will lead to increased fire weather conditions Tuesday,
requiring a Red Flag Warning for Hidalgo, Brooks, Inland Kenedy,
Inland Willacy, and Inland Cameron counties Tuesday afternoon.
Zapata, Jim Hogg, and Star counties are more borderline, with
conditions favoring a Fire Danger Statement Tuesday, however if wind
speeds increase for these counties, the Red Flag Warning may need to
be extended westward.

Key message:

*   We expect an enhanced fire weather threat on Wednesday.

Wednesday: A dry cold front will move through the CWA Wednesday
morning, bringing breezy northwest winds and lower relative
humidity air. Along with critically dry to extremely dry surface
fuels, the situation will support a high potential for wildfire
activity. The fire weather threat will be greatest for the Brush
Country and Upper Valley, essentially everything west of the I-69C
corridor. We have medium to high confidence that conditions will
meet Rangeland Fire Danger (RFD) criteria from late Wednesday
morning through mid- Wednesday afternoon due to dry fuels, low
relative humidity values, and post-frontal 15 to 20 mph 20 ft
winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             67  86  58  72 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               64  89  53  75 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 66  91  55  80 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         62  87  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      66  76  61  67 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     65  82  58  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ250-251-253>255-353.

     Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ253>255-355.

     High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through this
     evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 7 AM CDT
     Wednesday for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....54-BHM
AVIATION...63-KC

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

7 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Zapata

When: March 18, 12:00 AM CST to March 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Zapata forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 27.001, -99.169 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The combination of humidity averaging near 10 percent each afternoon for a week (March 9-17), occasional heat spikes, and gusty winds moved conditions into flash drought territory, and the drought monitor was adjusted to Extreme (D3) on the 18th. These conditions would continue until March 26th, before heavy rains arrived and ultimately improved drought somewhat but not until April 1. Detailed agricultural (ranch/livestock) impact was not known, but pastures were completely brittle and overall cattle herds were culled, with water hauling likely in the Deep South Texas ranch country.

Drought, Jim Hogg

When: March 18, 12:00 AM CST to March 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Jim Hogg forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 27.043, -98.697 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The combination of humidity averaging 10-15 percent each afternoon for a week (March 9-17), occasional heat spikes, and gusty winds moved conditions into flash drought territory, and the drought monitor was adjusted to Extreme (D3) on the 18th for all but the eastern one-fifth of Jim Hogg County. These conditions would continue until March 26th, before heavy rains arrived and ultimately improved drought somewhat but not until April 1. Detailed agricultural (ranch/livestock) impact was not known, but pastures were completely brittle and overall cattle herds were culled, with water hauling likely in the Deep South Texas ranch country.

Drought, Starr

When: March 18, 12:00 AM CST to March 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Starr forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 26.562, -98.738 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The combination of humidity averaging 10-15 percent each afternoon for a week (March 9-17), occasional heat spikes, and gusty winds moved conditions into flash drought territory, and the drought monitor was adjusted to Extreme (D3) on the 18th for all but the eastern one-tenth of Starr County. These conditions would continue until March 26th, before heavy rains and local flash flooding arrived and ultimately improved drought somewhat but not until April 1. Detailed agricultural (ranch/livestock) impact was not known, but pastures were completely brittle and overall cattle herds were culled, with water hauling likely in the Starr County brush country.

Drought, Inland Kenedy County

When: March 18, 12:00 AM CST to March 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Inland Kenedy County forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 26.928, -97.636 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Severe (D2) level drought expanded to most of inland Kenedy County on March 18th, and would further expand to all but a sliver of (southeast) inland Kenedy County on March 25. These conditions continuing until March 26th before heavy rains put a dent into the drought - with the change noted on April 1st.

Between March 10-17, relative humidity averaged around 20 percent during the afternoon. Prior to the rains, flash drought conditions were in full swing. Agricultural impacts were unknown, but dry rangeland extended into this region, though not quite as parched as locations in the Brush Country and mid/upper Rio Grande Valley.

Drought, Southern Hidalgo County

When: March 18, 12:00 AM CST to March 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Southern Hidalgo County forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 26.397, -98.181 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Severe (D2) level drought expanded to cover all of southern Hidalgo County on March 18th, with these conditions continuing until March 26th before heavy rains put a notable dent into the drought. Between March 10-17, relative humidity averaged around 15 percent during the afternoon. Prior to the rains, flash drought conditions were in full swing. Dry rangeland/pastures were common during this period, and newly planted spring row crops were showing early-season stress with water shortages worsening.

Drought, Willacy

When: March 18, 12:00 AM CST to March 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Willacy forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 26.477, -97.592 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Severe (D2) Drought expanded into western Willacy County on March 18th, courtesy of very dry conditions (afternoon humidity averaging around 20 percent from the 10th-17th), persistent breezes, periodic hot temperatures, and increasing evaporation. The drought area would expand into central Willacy County on the 25th. Torrential rains and local flash flooding on the 27th would improve conditions by April 1st.

Texas Agrilife reported that south Texas row crops - a staple of Willacy County agriculture - suffered early-season stress with water shortages prior to March 27th becoming critical. Rangeland/pastures became very dry, peaking around March 25th.

Drought, Cameron

When: March 18, 12:00 AM CST to March 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Cameron forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 26.152, -97.453 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Severe (D2) Drought expanded into a sliver of western Cameron County, including Santa Rosa and La Feria, on March 18th, with the area nudging slightly eastward on the 25th. Torrential, historic rainfall induced widespread flash flooding on the 27th which would improve conditions by April 1st.

Texas Agrilife reported that south Texas row crops suffered early-season stress with water shortages prior to March 27th becoming critical. Rangeland/pastures became very dry, peaking around March 25th.

What these are

Drought: A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Texas in 2025 Every state in 2025 This day in weather history Warnings in Texas, March 2025

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1249469, 1249470, 1249471, 1249472, 1249473, 1249475, 1249476.