Texas, 2025

Drought in Texas, March 18 to 31, 2025

March 18 to 31, 2025 · NWS FWD · 3 events in 3 counties and zones

Severe drought conditions developed across portions of Bell, Lampasas, and Mills counties during the middle of the month.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
3

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.

Severe drought conditions developed across portions of Bell, Lampasas, and Mills counties during the middle of the month.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 17, 11:57 PM CST, 3 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

  • Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will continue most afternoons this week, mainly west of the I-35 corridor.
  • A dry cold front Wednesday will drop temperatures below normal for a day or two before quickly warming up late in the week.
  • Storm chances return on Sunday for areas along and east of I-35.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 17, 11:57 PM CST, 3 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1257 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will continue most
  afternoons this week, mainly west of the I-35 corridor.

- A dry cold front Wednesday will drop temperatures below normal
  for a day or two before quickly warming up late in the week.

- Storm chances return on Sunday for areas along and east of I-35.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday Afternoon/

Breezy conditions can be expected today ahead of a progressive
upstream trough that will lead to the development of a strong
surface low on the lee side of the Rockies. This system will serve
to tighten the pressure gradient through this afternoon,
resulting in sustained wind speeds anywhere from 20 to 30 mph.
Afternoon gusts through today will likely approach 40 to 45 mph,
therefore a Wind Advisory will be issued to account for these
winds. Be sure to secure any outdoor lawn furniture or any other
loose items that may be impacted by these increased winds.

Another warm afternoon can be expected for all of North and
Central Texas, with highs once again climbing into the upper 70s
to mid 80s. A few locations out west may approach the 90 degree
mark. These warm afternoon temperatures along with breezy
conditions will continue to keep our fire weather threat elevated
to critical, especially along and west of the I-35 corridor. The
dry line will push east into our region through the evening and
overnight hours Tuesday leading up into Wednesday, which will
knock overnight humidity values across our west below 20%. Any
fire activity that initiates through the evening may linger into
the overnight hours as humidity values drop behind the dry line. A
strong cold front will be ushered in behind the dry line as the
strengthening surface low to our north moves across the region.
This will bring temperatures down through Wednesday morning,
resulting in highs across North and Central Texas anywhere from
the low to upper 60s and low 70s. This cold front will pass
through the region rain-free, with wind speeds behind the front
increasing to around 25 mph and gusts upwards of 35 mph. An
elevated fire weather threat will persist through Wednesday.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 335 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

An intense shortwave trough and equally strong surface cyclone
will sweep east through the Plains Tuesday night/Wednesday,
dragging our next cold front through the area around midweek. A
narrow surface pressure gradient associated with the deep low
pressure center will generate strong and gusty winds both ahead of
and behind the cold front. Will likely end up using the NBM 75th
percentile for wind speeds as the operational NBM numbers tend to
under-forecast velocities. In either case, gusty south winds
Tuesday/Tuesday night will become gusty northwest winds on
Wednesday behind the front. The difference on Wednesday will be
temperatures, which will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler across Central
Texas, and generally 10-20 degrees cooler across North Texas
compared to Tuesday.

The upper level pattern will remain quite progressive through the
weekend. Strong post-frontal winds will continue into Wednesday
night, before finally subsiding on Thursday as the surface ridge
axis passes northwest to southeast through the area. The reprieve
will be brief, however, as return flow quickly develops ahead of
the next shortwave. Breezy conditions will subsequently return by
Friday as the shortwave emerges in the Plains. A weak attendant
cold front will make its way slowly through North & Central Texas
Friday night as the upper level system heads for the Arklatex
region. A narrow band of rain showers may accompany the front, but
odds are that measurable precipitation will remain east of the
forecast area.

The front will stall on Saturday, then return north Saturday
night, as one disturbance exits to our east and yet another
shortwave trough simultaneously approaches from the northwest.
This system may actually acquire enough moisture to produce
measurable rain chances across some of the forecast area on
Sunday. That being said, conditions will still be borderline for
any significant convection, and rain chances may end up being
limited to areas east of I-35 and south of I-30 where 1 inch PWATs
will briefly exist. For the rest of the region, the fire weather
threat will continue to be the primary concern for the mid to
late week period.

Precipitation will exit into Southeast Texas and Louisiana along
with another cold front Sunday night, followed by dry and
seasonable weather for the start of next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

Concerns...Breezy conditions today, FROPA through Wednesday.

VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through the
entire period. Southerly winds will persist overnight with gusts
upwards of 25 knots. Wind speeds will increase from the south
starting tomorrow morning as gusts approach 35 to 40 knots through
the afternoon. The dry line will push in overnight Tuesday into
early Wednesday morning, shifting winds from the west. Some patchy
blowing dust may be possible as this feature moves east, which
could lead to very minimal visibility reductions. There is a low
chance for MVFR ceilings ahead of the dry line, but these will be
shunted off to the south and east of all TAF sites. A strong cold
front will move in through Wednesday morning into the afternoon,
leading to breezy northerly winds.

Reeves

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    58  68  42  68  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                58  72  41  68  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               57  66  38  63  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              53  65  36  66  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            56  66  38  65  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              59  68  44  68  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             57  68  39  65  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           60  72  42  69  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              56  75  40  70  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       53  67  36  70  44 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
evening for TXZ091-100-101-115-116-129-130-141>143.

&&

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

3 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Bell

When
March 18, 12:00 AM CST to March 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Bell forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
31.038, -97.478 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Severe drought conditions impacted portions of the county during the second half of the month.

Drought, Lampasas

When
March 18, 12:00 AM CST to March 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Lampasas forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
31.196, -98.241 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Severe drought conditions impacted portions of the county during the second half of the month.

Drought, Mills

When
March 18, 12:00 AM CST to March 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Mills forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
31.495, -98.595 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Severe drought conditions impacted portions of the county during the second half of the month.

What these are

Drought
A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Texas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, March 2025

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1248716, 1248718, 1248719.