High Wind in Texas, March 14, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
624 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 611 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

- Critical/Extreme Fire Weather Conditions, Strong/Damaging Winds,
  and Blowing Dust Today

- Fire Weather Concerns Continue Through Next Week

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Models show upper system moving across the SW U.S. lifting NE into
the Central Plains today. At the sfc, a low pressure will deepen
increasing the pressure gradient across the region. Models show the
pressure dropping to around 975 mb with the sfc low moving across
KS. Models then show a front moving into northern parts of the fa
starting later this afternoon or early evening and continue to move
across the region tonight.

Strong/Severe Winds Today: The increasing pressure gradient along
with mixing into strong winds aloft will likely lead to sustained
winds of 30 to 45 mph across a good portion of the fa today with
wind gusts over 58 mph possible. Models are showing about a 30-50%
probability of severe wind gusts (>=58 mph or 50 knots) today with
much higher probabilities of 50 mph or greater wind gusts. Right
now, it looks like the window for the strongest winds will occur
starting around mid-morning and continuing into mid-afternoon as the
LLJ moves across the region. These winds could also reduce
visibility due to blowing dust. A High Wind Warning and Wind
Advisory are in effect for today. The winds could make travel
difficult by reducing visibility and causing a crosswind especially
if in high profile vehicles. The strong/severe winds will also
likely move loose outdoor items such as lawn furniture so take steps
to prevent this.

The winds are expected to decrease tonight with lighter winds (10-20
mph) expected behind the frontal boundary.

Critical/Extreme Fire Weather Conditions Today: In addition to the
strong/severe winds, much drier air is expected to move into the
region ahead of the frontal boundary with dewpoints in the teens
expected to spread into parts of the area. MinRH values less than
20% are expected across the entire fa. This dry airmass combined
with the strong/severe winds and drying vegetation will lead to
Critical to Extreme fire weather conditions across most of the fa
today. Higher dewpoints are expected behind the frontal boundary so
RHs are expected to improve along with lighter winds when the front
moves through. However, the front will cause a wind shift to the NW
which could be problematic to any ongoing fires. A Red Flag Warning
is in effect for the entire fa. Please take steps to prevent fire
starts today and pay attention to your local officials for any
evacuations, etc.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Cooler temperatures and northwest winds are expected Saturday with
highs in the 60s which will generally be at or just a few degrees
below average. The NW winds will be lighter compared to today at 10-
20 mph. Cool/cold conditions expected Saturday night with lows
across much of the area in the 30s. Temperatures are expected to
drop to or below freezing mainly in parts of northern and western
OK.

Elevated to Near Critical Fire Weather Conditions Saturday: RH is
expected to drop to 14-20% across western OK and western north TX
Saturday afternoon. The low RH combined with winds at 10 to 20 mph
with higher gusts and dry vegetation could lead to the increased
fire weather concerns. However, one mitigating factor will be cloud
cover that is expected over much of the fa.

Sfc high will move across the region Sunday. Temperatures will be
slightly warmer than Saturday with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s.
Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Sunday afternoon
across portions of northwest and west central OK due to low RH.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Southerly sfc flow returns to the entire fa by Monday with an
increased pressure gradient causing breezy southerly winds both
Monday and Tuesday. The breezy winds combined with low RH, warmer
temperatures, and dry vegetation will lead to a larger area of Near
Critical to Critical fire weather conditions Monday and Tuesday.

Models show an upper system approaching and moving across the Plains
towards the middle of next week. This system will cause a cold front
to move across the region bringing cooler temperatures to the later
half of next week compared to the first half with highs in the 70s
and 80s Monday and Tuesday compared to mostly 60s and 70s the rest
of the week.

Breezy/gusty NW winds are expected behind the front Wednesday. These
winds along with min RH of 18 to 30 percent across the fa and dry
vegetation will continue the potential for Near Critical to
potentially Critical fire weather conditions into Wednesday.

Unfortunately, currently models don't show an opportunity for any
decent rain chances that could bring some relief to the ongoing fire
weather concerns across most of the fa next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Very strong winds are already spreading across parts of far West
Texas early this morning. Blowing dust and reduced visibility is
also being reported. Low-level wind shear will continue through
about 14-15Z, before mixing results in stronger winds.  By late
morning into the afternoon, southwest winds will gusts to at least
45-50 knots. How far east the dust (that will lower visibility)
will make it into Oklahoma and northern Texas is a little
uncertain. Will mention dust at CSM and WWR with other areas
seeing dust suspended high in the air. A cold front will enter
northwest Oklahoma during the late afternoon which will shift
winds to the west and northwest. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions
are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  45  60  36 /   0   0  10   0
Hobart OK         69  41  62  33 /   0   0  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  73  46  65  36 /   0   0  10   0
Gage OK           68  36  60  29 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     72  44  60  32 /  10   0  10   0
Durant OK         76  52  68  40 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>048-
     050>052.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>030-
     033>041-044>046-050.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ031-032-042-
     043-047-048-051-052.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...06

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
1004 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 SW Gage               36.30N 99.78W
03/14/2025  M60 MPH          Ellis              OK   ASOS

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
1012 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0931 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 SE Frederick          34.36N 98.98W
03/14/2025  M58 MPH          Tillman            OK   ASOS

&&