Heat in Texas, June 20 to 24, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1038 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

...New UPDATE, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1037 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

No wholesale updates are needed to the forecast package this
morning. Temperatures are quickly climbing into the upper 80s and
dewpoints remain high, already pushing heat indices above the
century mark at some sites. On track to highs in the mid to upper
90s with heat indices of 105 to 109 possible across most of the
region. The subsidence of the upper level ridge looks to inhibit
much in the way of showers and storm development across the ArkLaTex
today. Ingested the most recent several hours worth of temperature
and dew point observations and interpolated through to 00Z.

/26/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Fair skies and a warm southerly breeze for us this morning. We
are still holding on to a couple of 80s this hour with some lower
70s for the coolest readings, north of I-30 where the wind is
calm. Our dew points are well up there in the low to mid 70s for
most of us. And it's these muggy dew point readings when coupled
with low to mid 90s afternoon heat, that will give us a daily
rise on the heat index to over 105 feels like degrees. Much of
our area is in our first Heat Advisory today from 11 am to 7 pm,
and right ahead of our summer solstice this evening at 9:42 pm
this evening.

The upper ridge is going to be wrapping up overhead through out
the day peaking a core of 593dam over S AR early this afternoon.
The ridge will not be stopping by for long, but will ease across
the MS River by tomorrow and build the summer heat into the fringe
of the Ohio River Valley and much of the SE U.S. All thanks to the
next digging long wave trough over the inter mountain west which
will be forcing the upper ridge to vacate our air space. So we
will likely see a few more middle 90s around today with heat index
calculations some 10-15 degrees more oppressive.

So be aware of your plans today in the outdoors and hydrate
before, during and after exposure to the dangerous heat as our
perspiration will see an uptick and this process of dehydration
is the beginning of heat stress and eventually much more dangerous
heat stroke. The chance for rainfall is slipping away under the
turning upper ridge with some showers just to our north in central
AR and parts of MS. The models all get a little carried away with
QPF, but all of them consistently shift this convection away to
the NE and not really in our area. So even though the ridge moves
away, the summer heat will remain intact without widespread
convection once again. We will remain stuck in the mid 70s for
most lows and we'll be seeing more mid 90s for highs this
weekend and into next week as well. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Once we move through the next couple of days, the upper ridge will
hold position over the mid Atlantic states with a heat wave
building there for early next week. The long wave trough will
fill (weaken) and build over the ridge into the plains and
midWestern states. We should begin to see the sea breeze push make
a better daily push up across I-20 late in the days to come of
next week. Our best chance for rainfall will be late day and
generally brief with not much in the bucket. The SPC has us posted
in a running General Risk category with heat like this and rain
cooled air most likely to bring down some damaging winds. The WPC
has very little to no QPF for us the next few days, but lift in a
tenth to quarter inch amounts many days next week as the ridge
sets up shop in the SE U.S with the trough sweeping over the
plains and into the midWestern States. In addition, we will be
keeping an eye on the tropics in this pattern as we wrap up June,
with the favored cyclone development zones across the Gulf and
Caribbean, most eager to swing any disturbances under the ridge
and into the western Gulf coastal regions. At least for the next
week, the Hurricane Center is not looking at anything likely at
this time. Meanwhile, we will keep average to just above average
on our lows and highs throughout the long term period. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Seeing some IFR/MVFR ceilings moving northward across NE TX and
extreme NW LA this morning. These ceilings will hang around
through 14-16z this morning before scattering out by mid to late
morning with VFR conditions returning. Isolated storm coverage is
possible today, especially across Deep East Texas into Northern
Louisiana and South Central Arkansas but coverage will not warrant
a mention in this TAF package. Look for S to SSW winds today with
speeds near 10kts with stronger gusts possible, mainly at the TYR
and GGG terminals. Wind speeds will decouple this evening through
the overnight hours tonight.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1037 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  77  96  76 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  96  76  96  76 /  10   0   0   0
DEQ  93  74  92  73 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  96  77  95  76 /  10   0   0   0
ELD  95  74  96  73 /  10   0   0   0
TYR  93  76  92  74 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  94  74  93  73 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  95  74  95  73 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ059>061-070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ097-112-126-137-
     138-150>153-165>167.

&&

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...13