Heat in Texas, July 27 to 30, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
630 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

 - A Heat Advisory has been expanded to include all of the Four
   State Region today from 10 AM through 8 PM.

 - Heat headlines will continue throughout much of the upcoming
   week as temperatures climb even higher by mid-week.

 - Increasing rain chances will eventually return by late week as
   the upper ridge shifts farther west as we flip the calendar
   from July to August.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Saturday's rainfall across much of the region was certainly a
welcome relief and provided a brief break from the intense heat,
but the heat will quickly crank back up over the next several
days. That warming trend will begin today as the northern Gulf
disturbance that aided in yesterday's convection has all but
dissipated while the upper-level ridge across the SE CONUS is
retrograding back toward our region. So expect temperatures to
push back toward the mid 90s this afternoon while dew points
aren't likely to mix out as much as what we saw last week so a
Heat Advisory is in effect for today across the entire region
although our northernmost zones where the advisory was expanded
will likely be more marginal compared to areas farther south.
That is because some isolated to widely scattered convection is
possible across our northern tier counties while sea breeze
activity may also encroach on our southernmost zones later this
afternoon. Otherwise, expect mostly dry conditions elsewhere in
the absence of any real forcing mechanism in place.

Moving into early to mid week, the heat will only become more
oppressive with upper 90s to lower triple digits making another
run as we move through the last few days of July. In addition, it
appears that we will continue to struggle mixing out dew points
such that heat advisories may require an upgrade to extreme heat
warnings for at least some portions of the region if heat indices
begin to exceed 110 degrees. This appears to be most probable on
Tuesday and Wednesday when much of the region may reach or exceed
the century mark for high temperatures. During this timeframe,
rain chances will remain slim to none for the vast majority of the
region with slightly better odds across our SE zones by Wednesday.

By late week and into next weekend, the upper ridge will further
retrograde out west and provide the opportunity for a rare summer
cool front to drop south into the region. The presence of this
boundary will provide an enhanced focus for convection during this
late week timeframe and likely on into next weekend. Temperatures
will generally moderate back to near seasonal averages for early
August with highs in the lower to mid 90s by Friday through next
weekend.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

For the 27/12z TAF period...VFR conditions across the TAF sites
at this hour, with a mid-deck of alto-cu over the region.
Originally thought there would be some MVFR cigs at the sites, but
I think the mid-deck will prevent that. Expect the clouds to erode
by the afternoon hours, but we should see some scattered CU across
the region.  It should be much drier today, as upper ridging
builds in. However, can't rule out an isolated shower or
thunderstorm this afternoon. Chances remain too low to include in
TAFs at this time. But, the one exception is at KLFK, where
models have some seabreeze activity moving into Deep East
Texas/Central Louisiana during the afternoon/early evening hours.
Expect VFR conditions, with few to scattered high cigs by the end
of the period. /20/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Spotter activation is not expected over the next several days as
thunderstorm chances will be greatly diminished.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  78  99  79 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  97  77  99  79 /  10  10   0   0
DEQ  93  72  97  73 /  20   0   0   0
TXK  97  76 100  76 /  10   0   0   0
ELD  94  74  98  76 /  10  10   0   0
TYR  94  75  97  75 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  95  75  97  74 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  95  74  97  74 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...20