Winter Weather in Texas, February 22, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
140 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 128 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

- Winter Weather Advisory continues through 9 AM for portions of the Hill
  Country, I-35 corridor and coastal plains for freezing rain and
  drizzle with the main impacts on elevated surfaces, bridges and
  overpasses.

- Temperatures warm back above freezing mid-morning and stay above freezing
  through the short term period.

Drizzle and light rain can be seen on radar early this morning,
mainly from the coastal plains to eastern portions of the Hill
Country. Overcast skies are keeping temperatures rather steady in
the low or mid 30s, with temperatures only dropping a few degrees by
sunrise. In most areas with precipitation, wet bulb temperatures are
likely at the freezing mark now and we should see an uptick in icing
through the overnight hours. In the north where light precipitation
is falling, dewpoints are still in the low 20s but may increase as
low levels continue to moisten and icing may begin closer to
sunrise. Total ice amounts are still expected to only be a few
hundredths of an inch, with only some isolated locations seeing up
to a tenth of an inch. The main impacts remain on elevated surfaces
with slick spots possible on untreated bridges and overpasses. The
Winter Weather Advisory remains through 9 AM for the central portion
of the CWA.

Temperatures will rise above freezing areawide around 9 AM ending
the freezing rain threat with a cold, light rain continuing through
the day mainly along and east of I-35. Thunderstorms over the
coastal plains will also be possible this afternoon through Sunday.
Temperatures this afternoon will be warmer than those of yesterday,
but still cold for most in the upper 30s and 40s under cloudy skies.
A mid-level short wave moves over Central Texas tonight into Sunday
shifting a coastal trough east and ending precipitation chances
Sunday morning. A big warm-up is seen by Sunday afternoon along with
clearing skies from west to east. Highs will be in the upper 50s to
mid 60s east and into the upper 60s and low 70s west.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 138 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Key Messages:

- Dry with above normal temperatures Monday through Wednesday.

Next week will be a distinct change of pace from the current period
of cold weather. With ridging aloft in the wake of the weekend's
troughy activity, skies will be mostly clear Monday and Tuesday with
dry weather prevailing. Lows Monday morning are expected to be
generally in the upper-30s to low-40s with the coldest spots in rural
low-lying areas given the efficient radiational cooling. Highs
Monday range from the low-70s over the Coastal Plains to the low 80s
over the Rio Grande Plains. Tuesday should be a touch warmer with
lows in the 40s and highs in the mid-70s to mid-80s for most of the
region. Wednesday morning looks warmer still with lows around 50F.
With a light southerly wind gradually increasing dew points over the
region, patchy fog and low stratus may develop each of these mornings
over the Coastal Plains.

On Wednesday, a shortwave trough is expected to move across the
Central US. This could set up a push of a weak cold front through
our area sometime late Wednesday into Thursday, though there is a
fair bit of uncertainty from the synoptic guidance regarding timing
and the strength of the cooler air behind it. Wednesday's highs look
quite similar to Tuesday's, provided that the front arrives after
peak heating. With the shortwave being so distant and moisture
transport being meager, the front should be mostly dry and the
forecast does not include rain at this time. Should the front move
across the entirety of our region, temperatures Thursday and Friday
look to be slightly more seasonable.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

MVFR conditions will begin the TAF period with the I-35 TAF sites
all slightly above freezing with the start of light drizzle. Forecast
remains tricky overnight into Saturday morning at those same sites
as lowering temperatures and moisture advancing northward will result
in a chance for -FZDZ. The San Antonio terminals (KSAT and KSSF) has
a slightly better chance along with the slightly longer duration of
this potential. Mid-morning Saturday, the temperatures warm above
freezing and any remaining area precipitation will become all
liquid. Remainder of the period will highlight drizzle and/or PROB30
groups for -SHRA at the I-35 terminals. Ceilings will remain MVFR
through the afternoon before ceilings lower Saturday night into the
IFR range towards the end of the TAF period. KDRT will be expected to
remain dry through the forecast period with primarily MVFR ceilings.
Winds remain light out of the north-northeast before becoming more
light and variable into Saturday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              41  38  62  42 /  20  30  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  41  36  62  40 /  20  30  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     40  38  63  41 /  30  30  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            42  37  65  40 /  10  10   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           51  38  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        42  37  63  41 /  20  30   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             44  38  69  40 /  20  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        40  36  62  40 /  30  30  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   40  38  58  39 /  50  50  20   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       42  39  65  43 /  30  20  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           42  39  65  42 /  40  20  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for Bandera-
Bexar-Blanco-Caldwell-Comal-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Kendall-Travis-
Wilson.

&&

Short-Term...27
Long-Term...Tran
Aviation...27