During the evening of the 28th/early morning hours of the 29th, a strong cold front pushed through west Texas and southeast New Mexico, bringing Arctic air back to the region. Meanwhile, our area ended up under the right entrance region of an upper-level jet.
Every event with a place to put it; 5 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
During the evening of the 28th/early morning hours of the 29th, a strong cold front pushed through west Texas and southeast New Mexico, bringing Arctic air back to the region. Meanwhile, our area ended up under the right entrance region of an upper-level jet. A narrow band of wintery precipitation formed from roughly Queen, New Mexico into the Permian Basin of west Texas towards Midland/Odessa. Snow eventually became the dominant precipitation type within this narrow band. The most snow fell in southeast New Mexico, particularly in Carlsbad, where up to 9.8 inches fell. Further east into west Texas towards Midland/Odessa, an inch was commonly reported.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 29, 5:52 AM CST, 1 hour 23 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
552 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 552 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
- There is a moderate to high chance (30-70 percent) of a light
wintry mix of precipitation transitioning to snow over southeast
New Mexico and portions of west Texas starting around or shortly
after sunrise and continuing through this evening.
- Strong northeasterly winds could bring reduced visibility and
white out conditions to the Guadalupe Mountains today. Snowfall
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are possible with this event in
the Guadalupe Mountains and parts of the Eddy County Plains.
There is also potential for accumulating snowfall accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches over Lea County NM, northern portions of the
Upper Trans Pecos, and the western Permian Basin.
- Below normal temperatures continue through Tuesday before
temperatures rebound to above normal readings late this week
into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 306 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
A strong cold front continues to surge southward toward the
Presidio Valley and southern Big Bend region early this morning.
Much colder air continues to filter into our region behind this
front with temperatures falling into the mid 30s to mid 40s over
most areas behind the boundary as of 2 AM CST. The coldest
temperature is 27 degrees at the Tatum mesonet as of this time.
Winds have gusted to 40-50 mph following the passage of the front
late Sunday evening into early this morning. Satellite imagery
shows mid and high level clouds continuing to thicken over our
forecast area early this morning, but surface observations
indicate that the lower levels of the atmosphere remain quite dry,
with surface dewpoints holding into the mid teens to mid 20s at 2
AM CST. Mid level ascent is starting to spread into portions of
west Texas in association with a shortwave and slight enhancement
in mid level wind speeds within the westerly flow aloft. Radar
imagery already shows some light precipitation attempting to
develop from the Upper Trans Pecos to the Permian Basin and we
have observed a few sprinkles at KMAF, but the lower levels have
remained too dry for anything but a trace of precipitation so
far.
Short range and high resolution model data coming in this morning
continue to show increased ascent and gradual moistening of the
atmospheric column from the Sacramento Mountains through the
Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains by sunrise and
continuing through the morning hours. Bands of precipitation
should develop over these areas between 12-18Z (6 AM CST/5 AM MST
through Noon CST/11 AM MST). Forecast soundings indicate that wet
bulbing effects should sufficiently cool the column for
precipitation to develop in the form of snow over most of these
areas through the morning, though cannot rule out a brief mix of
light rain/sleet/snow initially. Models have trended just a little
further north with the area of greatest forcing, with the heaviest
snowfall totals looking to be bullseyed over the Sacramento
Mountains into the northern portion of our Guadalupe Mtns zone in
NM and adjacent Eddy county Plains, including around Artesia/Carlsbad
as we go through the day today. We will maintain the Winter Storm
Warning for the Eddy County NM zone where total snowfall
accumulations of up to 3-5 inches and perhaps locally around 6
inches may fall, especially in the western/northwestern part of
the county. Heavy snowfall amounts still look to impact the
Guadalupe Mountains, especially on the NM side, while snowfall
amounts may taper down going toward the Guadalupe Mtns National
Park on the TX side. Overall expect snowfall amounts up to 3-5
inches in parts of the Guadalupe Mountains, while strong
northeasterly winds persist through the day, particularly through
gap areas. These strong winds may result in visibility reductions
with blowing snow, so plan on keeping the Blizzard Warning intact.
Additional bands of light snow may spread into Lea County NM, and
into the western Permian Basin/Upper Trans Pecos later this
morning and into this afternoon/evening. There is still potential
for 1-3 inches of snow to impact parts of Lea County, with at
least 1 inch possible extending into parts of the western Permian
Basin, Upper Trans Pecos, and northern Culberson County. Currently
do not plan to make any change to the current advisory
configuration, but will monitor trends to potentially discontinue
the advisory over the Van Horn/I-10 corridor zone as most wintry
precipitation potentially stays to the north of this zone. Some
high-resolution solutions suggest we could get light snow in the
Odessa/Midland area this afternoon/evening, but accumulations
still look to be a trace to a dusting (less than 1") here at this
time, so will keep Ector/Midland out of the advisory and monitor
trends closely.
Ascent will weaken later this evening with precipitation chances
quickly decreasing by late evening. We have dry weather conditions
indicated after midnight. Highs today will be cold with readings
in the 30s at best over much of southeast New Mexico into the
Permian Basin and Upper Trans Pecos. Mountain areas likely stay
below freezing today. Temps along the Trans Pecos, Big Bend, and
Rio Grande areas will be chilly in the 40s and 50s. Much colder
temperatures can be expected tonight with lows in the 20s and 30s.
It's possible for some areas with snowpack in the Guadalupe
Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains to fall into the upper
teens. Dry conditions are expected on Tuesday, with temperatures
to only trend slightly warmer in the 40s and 50s over most areas,
though temperatures may be cooler than guidance where snow is
still on the ground.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 306 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Ridging aloft will strengthen from the Desert Southwest/Four
Corners into the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night. The ridge axis
is forecast to build eastward across our forecast area Wednesday
and Wednesday night. Periods of zonal flow with embedded ridging
aloft will generally prevail over our forecast area through the
latter part of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Dry weather
conditions will prevail through the extended forecast period with
this pattern. Temperatures will return back to about 10 to 15
degrees above normal late this week and this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
VFR conditions are expected to remain prevalent at most sites
today with overcast decks with bases between 4-6 kft AGL. A period
of MVFR ceilings may develop over KCNM later this morning into
this afternoon as areas of light snow develop. Visibility may be
briefly reduced to MVFR to IFR thresholds if heavier snow develops
at KCNM. Bands of light rain mixed with a few sleet pellets or
flurries may also develop near KHOB, KINK, and KMAF through the
morning before transitioning to light snow this afternoon.
Precipitation should end by this evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 39 29 54 31 / 30 10 0 0
Carlsbad 35 24 48 29 / 70 40 0 0
Dryden 48 35 54 36 / 0 10 0 0
Fort Stockton 42 31 56 37 / 20 10 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 32 27 47 35 / 50 30 0 0
Hobbs 34 24 47 28 / 60 30 0 0
Marfa 39 22 53 28 / 10 10 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 37 29 51 33 / 40 20 0 0
Odessa 36 29 50 33 / 40 30 0 0
Wink 38 28 50 31 / 50 30 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Blizzard Warning until midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight for
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
Mountains.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for Andrews-
Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Loving-Reeves County Plains-Van
Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Winkler.
NM...Blizzard Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
Mountains of Eddy County.
Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for Eddy
County Plains.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for Central
Lea-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.
&&
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...21The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
5 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
Law enforcement reported 1 inch of snow about 10 miles east of the Texas/New Mexico state line, along SH 128 at 0132 CST. Light snowfall continued later into the afternoon, and the total time of occurrence is partially estimated by radar.
Andrews law enforcement reported a half an inch of snowfall, though mentioned some had already melted. The total time of occurrence is partially estimated by radar.
An NWS employee measured 1 inch of snowfall near Sherwood Park in Odessa. The total time of occurrence is partially estimated by radar.
An NWS employee measured 1.1 inches of snow at his house. The total time of occurrence is partially estimated.
One inch of snowfall was measured at the Midland WFO. The total time of occurrence is partially estimated by radar and ASOS observations.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, December 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1299998, 1300000, 1299788, 1299991, 1299658.