Isolated thunderstorms developed over the Coastal Plains in deep tropical moisture and moved into the I-35 Corridor. One of these storms produced strong wind gusts.
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The episode as NWS EWX wrote it up.
Isolated thunderstorms developed over the Coastal Plains in deep tropical moisture and moved into the I-35 Corridor. One of these storms produced strong wind gusts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 15, 12:57 PM CST, 1 hour 28 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 157 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Disorganized Invest 98L pushes inland along the South Texas and Mexico border, providing low to medium (20-40%) rain chances for portions of the area today and Saturday - Isolated pockets of locally heavy rain up to 2 inches and gusty winds possible - Elevated heat indices of 104 to 108 along and east of the I-35 corridor through the next several afternoons - Rain chances diminish early next week before increasing through mid to late week && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Disorganized Invest 98L, with the lack of a closed low-level circulation, ran out of time and is now starting to push ashore across coastal Deep South Texas. While the greatest rainfall from this disturbance through this afternoon focuses over South Texas, the outer outflow of the disturbance should continue to aid in a broken band or two of isolated to scattered shower and storm activity for the eastern half of the region. While this activity should be rather quick moving in these bands, the tropical airmass with PWATs as high as 1.7 to 2.1 inches will be able to support downpours with locally heavy rainfall. Gusty winds may accompany this activity as well with gusts around 30 mph or more. As mentioned within the previous discussion, the short term model guidance continues to show a brief lull regarding activity after sunset. Then, increasing low-level flow on the eastern side of the disturbance as it progresses farther inland would likely result in some re-development of isolated to scattered tropical showers and storms overnight. This concentration of activity would likely be slightly more inland, where models show greater probability for a corridor from around highway 90 to the I-35 corridor near San Antonio. Like with the bands this afternoon, a few heavier downpours could occur. Generally, rainfall amounts are forecast to range from 1/10 to 1/3 of an inch on average across the region. Locations could get left out entirely, especially across portions of the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau. However, with the isolated heavier downpours mentioned within the paragraphs above, there may be pockets of 1 to 2 inches, but confidence continues to remain low on placement of higher amounts. WPC (Weather Prediction Center) will continue to feature a level 1 out of 4 risk for excessive rainfall that could lead to flash flooding across the Coastal Plains, I-35 corridor, and Hill Country. The rain chances decline into and through Saturday night. Air temperatures will remain seasonable but with the more tropical air mass, dew points would be a bit more elevated compared to the previous several days this afternoon and again during Saturday afternoon. This would result in some elevated peak heat indices in the range of 104 and 108 degrees for locations that are along and east of the I-35 corridor. Overnight lows will otherwise trend warm and humid in the low to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 The rain chances diminish early next week as ridging centered over the Ozarks region becomes slightly more established across Texas with dissipation of the remnant tropical disturbance. Temperatures are forecast to trend near to slightly above average. Peak heat indices will remain a bit elevated as well, especially along and east of the I-35 corridor, through at least Monday. The ridge axis will then shift westward and strengthen across the Four Corners region. This could potentially open an opportunity for a front to advance southward into Texas on the eastern periphery of the ridge axis. Additionally, an inverted trough may also become embedded within the weakness of the mid-level pattern. This should lead to increasing rain and storm chances over the region from mid to late next week. The daytime high temperatures also slightly lower with the greater moisture and cloud cover across the region. Morning lows remain seasonal and humid. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Tricky flying conditions expected as invest 98L moves near and possibly over the I-35 TAF sites. Initial wave of convection has moved into the Coastal Plains for the start of the TAF cycle. Did include a mention of showers for KSAT and KSSF with VCTS. Current storm motions puts these storms near the 5 mile ring of KSAT around the 1815z-1830z. Potential of showers making it to KAUS is low as drier air has been wining out. Will monitor trends this afternoon as increase moisture in the lowest levels increases. Outside of terminals being impacted by the above mentioned showers, expect VFR cigs to prevail through the overnight hours before clouds start to increase with the approach of the center of invest 98L. Then expect MVFR cigs with ISOLD SHRA/TSRA for the I-35 sites for Saturday into and possibly beyond Saturday afternoon. Depending on the track 98L takes could see PROB30s extended much longer or shorter than currently forecast. Will monitor radar and model trends for possible inclusion in later forecasts. Right now have PROB30s from 11Z/12Z to 18Z for all TAF sites except KDRT. Also depending on the track of this system KDRT could not see any PROB30s as most of the moisture would be displaced well to the east of the center. Expect E-SE winds for all TAF sites prior to the arrival of 98L with higher gusts up to 25kts expected as the system gets closer. Will continue to monitor trends and update as needed as this is a relatively low confidence forecast period as models are handling this system poorly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 77 97 78 99 / 10 40 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 97 76 99 / 20 40 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 76 96 75 99 / 20 40 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 74 93 75 96 / 10 30 10 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 78 98 79 101 / 10 20 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 77 97 75 99 / 10 30 10 10 Hondo Muni Airport 75 97 74 99 / 30 30 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 76 97 75 100 / 20 40 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 97 76 98 / 20 40 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 77 97 77 99 / 30 40 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 78 99 78 101 / 30 40 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && Short-Term...62 Long-Term...62 Aviation...CJM
The Austin/San Antonio radar (KEWX), 65 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:25 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A thunderstorm produced wind gusts measured at 52 kts by the ASOS at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1290849.