Flood in Texas, August 15, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1228 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Continuing to monitor the influx of tropical moisture from Invest
98L. While the most of the activity has been located off the coast,
there is still time for the showers and thunderstorms to move
ashore. While the majority of the activity should be coming to an
end towards the end of the afternoon and into the early evening
hours, a stray shower or thunderstorm is still possible tonight.
Rainfall associated with these showers and thunderstorms could be
around 2 inches with some locations seeing up 4 inches possible.

A Flood Watch is still in effect for Southern Hidalgo and Cameron
counties through 6 PM, while the area of Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall has been trimmed down a bit to focus along the coast.

As for the temperatures, highs are expected to remain mostly in the
upper 90s to lower triple digits for the area. The Heat Risk for the
period is generally in the Moderate category (level 2 of 4), however
the heat indices for tomorrow in Kenedy and Willacy counties do get
over 111 for a few hours. This could potentially meet the criteria
for Heat Advisory, however confidence is not high enough to issue a
Heat Advisory at this current time. After, tomorrow the heat indices
do tend to stay under 110. Low temperatures are expected to be in
the 70s each night with some places approaching near 80.

Lastly, along the Lower Texas Coast, a moderate risk of rip currents
is in effect through tomorrow due to the increased waves and swell
from the low pressure system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

A mixture of MVFR to LIFR conditions remain possible through the
afternoon as bands of heavy rain move through the region. While
the MVFR conditions are generally due to the low-level clouds
moving through the area. Limited visibilities remain possible
with the heavy rainfall as well. By late in the afternoon and
towards the early evening hours, rain chances are expected to
decrease and the return of more VFR conditions by tonight. Light
southeasterly winds should also return around that time as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are currently impacting the Laguna Madre
and the Gulf waters bringing locally elevated winds and seas. Even
outside of the convection, southeasterly winds and seas are elevated
to around 15 knots and seas around 7 feet, resulting in the need for
a Small Craft Advisory for the Gulf waters and a Small Craft
Exercise Caution for the Laguna Madre. Winds and seas are expected
to become more favorable tomorrow, however a stray shower or
thunderstorm is still possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             80  96  80  96 /  10  10   0  10
HARLINGEN               77  98  76  98 /  20  10   0  10
MCALLEN                 80 101  79 102 /  20  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         78 103  77 103 /  30  10   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      82  89  82  89 /  10  10   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     79  94  79  93 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ253-255-355-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

SHORT TERM...64-Katz
LONG TERM....64-Katz
AVIATION...64-Katz