An abnormally dry September 2025 led to worsening drought conditions, especially across portions of northwest Middle Tennessee. Precipitation totals during the month generally ranged from 1 to 3 inches across northwest Middle Tennessee which saw the least amount of rain through September.
Every event with a place to put it; 9 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OHX wrote it up.
An abnormally dry September 2025 led to worsening drought conditions, especially across portions of northwest Middle Tennessee. Precipitation totals during the month generally ranged from 1 to 3 inches across northwest Middle Tennessee which saw the least amount of rain through September. The Clarksville ASOS measured only 1.09 inches of rain during the month which was 2.38 inches below normal. Drought conditions did briefly deteriorate to extreme drought across Stewart and Montgomery counties, however, some beneficial rain during the latter half of September improved conditions back to severe drought. By the end of September, about 26 percent of Middle Tennessee was in at least moderate drought with 10 percent of this in severe drought.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 1, 11:06 PM CST, 54 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1206 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1201 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 - Low to medium rain chances in the forecast through Thursday. Severe weather is not expected. - Temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s for highs through the forecast period. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1036 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Clouds continue to be present after the shower activity died off tonight. There's plenty of moisture in the area that will stick around through mid-week, meaning more rain chances to come. Tuesday into Wednesday still looks to be the best chance for rain, with the NBM showing a medium chance of a tenth on an inch (50 - 70%) and a low to medium (30 - 40%) chance of half an inch. Judging from the showers today that produced over an inch of rain in some locations, I would say this is underestimating the moisture available to these showers and storms. I would not be surprised to see more 1 - 2" plus accumulations by mid-week. As for temperatures, won't be as cool tonight as last night. Only dipping into the low to mid 60s tonight, with highs on Tuesday in the mid to upper 70s on the Cumberland Plateau to the mid 80s further west. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1036 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Thursday brings another opportunity for low to medium rain chances, as a cold front makes its way through the area. After that, things dry out thanks to the drier air behind that front and a secondary cold front guidance shows coming through Friday night. Temperatures look to stay in the upper 70s to mid 80s through the work week, adding to days with below normal temperatures for this time of year. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 Due to rainfall from yesterday, patchy fog has already developed across portions of southern and eastern Middle TN. This will result in MVFR to IFR visibilities through about 13Z to 14Z, mainly impacting CSV and SRB. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will redevelop by late Tuesday morning and into the early afternoon. Probabilities in impacts to terminals is highest at BNA, MQY, and CKV, and thus have continued the mention of PROB30 at these sites. Storm coverage will likely taper off between 00Z and 02Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 85 64 86 66 / 60 40 20 30 Clarksville 88 61 88 64 / 40 30 10 40 Crossville 75 57 76 60 / 40 40 50 20 Columbia 84 62 86 65 / 60 50 30 20 Cookeville 78 59 79 61 / 50 50 40 30 Jamestown 75 58 78 61 / 40 40 50 20 Lawrenceburg 82 61 84 63 / 60 50 30 20 Murfreesboro 83 61 86 64 / 60 50 30 20 Waverly 86 61 87 63 / 50 40 10 30 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....Clements
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
9 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe drought conditions briefly developed across Maury County during the first week of September 2025.
Severe drought conditions briefly developed across Hickman County during the first week of September 2025.
Severe drought conditions briefly developed across northern Perry County during the first week of September 2025.
Severe drought conditions developed across Dickson County during the first half of September 2025.
Severe drought conditions developed across Montgomery County during September 2025. Drought conditions did deteriorate to extreme drought briefly during the middle of the month, but improved back to severe before September ended.
Severe drought conditions developed across Cheatham County during September 2025.
Severe drought conditions developed across northern Davidson County during September 2025.
Severe drought conditions developed across eastern Sumner County during September 2025.
Severe drought conditions developed across Overton County during the first week of September 2025.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, September 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1288887, 1288888, 1288889, 1288890, 1288891, 1288892, 1288893, 1288894, 1288895.