An abnormally dry September 2025 led to worsening drought conditions, especially across portions of northwest Middle Tennessee. Precipitation totals during the month generally ranged from 1 to 3 inches across northwest Middle Tennessee which saw the least amount of rain through September.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OHX wrote it up.
An abnormally dry September 2025 led to worsening drought conditions, especially across portions of northwest Middle Tennessee. Precipitation totals during the month generally ranged from 1 to 3 inches across northwest Middle Tennessee which saw the least amount of rain through September. The Clarksville ASOS measured only 1.09 inches of rain during the month which was 2.38 inches below normal. Drought conditions did briefly deteriorate to extreme drought across Stewart and Montgomery counties, however, some beneficial rain during the latter half of September improved conditions back to severe drought. By the end of September, about 26 percent of Middle Tennessee was in at least moderate drought with 10 percent of this in severe drought.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 15, 11:37 PM CST, 23 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1237 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1234 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 - Scattered showers and storms Tuesday. Gusty winds and small hail will be possible, though overall impacts should be very little. - Afternoon highs remain a few degrees above normal this week with temperatures in the 80s to mid 90s. - Low to medium rain chances (20-40%) Friday through Monday, with a decreasing trend in temperatures for the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Another pleasant and mostly dry day is drawing to a close. Temperatures will settle into the 60s overnight with only patchy fog possible, mainly near bodies of water and along the Plateau. The 00Z CAMs are coming in a little hotter tonight with possible convection tomorrow as we see another surge in moisture with continued NNE flow aloft. There's a low currently meandering up along the east coast, and our winds aloft are helping to pull that moisture back into the mid-levels. And, as mentioned by the previous forecaster, that ridge to our west do indeed be a dirty one, allowing for some rain and storms to develop tomorrow. Measured PWAT on tonight's sounding is 1.22"; model soundings for tomorrow have PWATs back in the 1.4"-1.5" range. Very similar environment as previous days with scattered storms: unstable with the aid of daytime heating, and insufficient shear and lapse rates. Gusty winds and small hail will be possible in the strongest storms, but those will likely be few and far between. Activity looks to largely dwindle beyond sunset tomorrow, though a few stragglers look to remain into the overnight hours. The whole area could see a pop-up shower or storm tomorrow, but the bulk of the activity is currently favored along I-65 and points east. Rain chances back off once again come Wednesday, though a small passing shower could occur. Very slim chance though, around 5% or less at this time. It will be another hot day with highs in the 80s to 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Not a lot of change through Friday. Hot and mostly dry conditions will continue with highs gradually creeping up by a degree or two each day. By Friday, a dome of high pressure will be directly overhead, leading to our hottest day this week with widespread afternoon temps in the mid 90s. A trough developing across the midwest will work its way east by this weekend, and this will bring our next chance for a more widespread rain. Still seeing some pattern differences at this point, but it does look like we will at least see a slight decrease in temperatures and a slight increase in rain chances, currently around 20-30% areawide through this weekend. This isn't looking like a false-fall type of temp decrease, but we'll take what we can get. QPF amounts are currently near a quarter inch or so, though that value will likely vary some between now and this weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 VFR conditions tonight, with low chances for radiational fog developing around SRB/CSV. There is a low chance (<20%) of a shower or storm impacting a terminal Tuesday afternoon. Winds will generally be 5 kts or less for the forecast and variable in direction. AMD NOT SKED will continue at SRB due to issues with the visibility sensor. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 91 66 92 63 / 20 20 0 0 Clarksville 93 64 93 61 / 20 10 0 0 Crossville 80 58 81 57 / 30 10 0 0 Columbia 91 65 91 62 / 20 20 0 0 Cookeville 83 61 84 58 / 20 10 0 0 Jamestown 81 59 82 58 / 20 10 0 0 Lawrenceburg 88 63 89 61 / 20 20 0 0 Murfreesboro 89 64 90 62 / 20 20 0 0 Waverly 91 65 91 63 / 20 20 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...Baggett LONG TERM....Baggett AVIATION.....Cravens
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe drought conditions developed across Stewart County during September 2025. During the week of September 23rd, drought conditions deteriorated to extreme drought conditions, but improved back to severe the following week.
Severe drought conditions developed across Houston County during September 2025.
Severe drought conditions developed across northern Humphreys County during September 2025.
Severe drought conditions developed across Robertson County during September 2025.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, September 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1288896, 1288897, 1288898, 1288899.