November precipitation was below average with rainfall being sparse in the first three weeks of the month, with most falling later on. The limited November rain slowed or partially offset improvements achieved by rainfall in October, however, because October had been wetter than average, drought did not fully redevelop in much of the immediate Memphis metro by month’s end.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
November precipitation was below average with rainfall being sparse in the first three weeks of the month, with most falling later on. The limited November rain slowed or partially offset improvements achieved by rainfall in October, however, because October had been wetter than average, drought did not fully redevelop in much of the immediate Memphis metro by month’s end. All of West Tennessee improved to Abnormally Dry conditions or no drought conditions by December.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 31, 10:36 PM CST, 1 hour 24 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1136 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1014 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025 - Dry conditions will remain through Saturday morning with highs in the low to mid 60s. - Rain showers will move into the region Saturday afternoon, lasting into Sunday morning. - Dry conditions will return Sunday afternoon through much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1014 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025 Cool weather continues to persist across the region as surface high pressure remains. This will allow for overnight lows to stay in the 40s and low 50s. The dry weather, however, will be short- lived with a new trough axis swinging through the region Saturday. Upper height falls will encourage shower development which is already occurring over southern Missouri and eastern Kansas. These showers will advect east into the Mid-South by Saturday afternoon alongside the upper height falls. Rainfall accumulations amongst guidance are rather low with only up to .5" across portions of Western Tennessee. This is likely due to the scattered nature of precipitation and the fast motion of the upper forcing. Rainfall will end sometime early Sunday morning with the upper trough amplifying just to the north and east of the region. Colder air will begin to filter into the region with lows dropping back to the upper 30s and low 40s Sunday. This trend only continues into Monday morning with areas east of the Mississippi River having a 60%-80% chance of seeing temperatures at or below 35 F per the latest NBM. This will allow for widespread frost Monday morning as many areas will approach 32 F for the first time since last winter. Highs will drop accordingly with much of the region in the upper 50s to low 60s Sunday and Monday. Ridging will increase behind this weekend's upper trough as it moves out and into the Atlantic. Therefore, temperatures are expected to warm through next week with dry weather. Highs will start in the upper 60s Tuesday, quickly warming above 70 Wednesday, and hitting plateau through the end of the week. Ensemble spread is reasonably high through this time period with the upper pattern becoming zonal which would keep weather benign through the end of the period. A few GEFS members do show a low- amplitude shortwave bringing some height falls into next weekend, and some increase in rain chances, but this scenario is still subject to change. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025 No significant changes are planned for the 06Z TAFs. Late afternoon SHRA appear on track, with greatest coverage expected north of MEM. This light rainfall will fall mainly behind a cold front. A brief MVFR CIG will be possible at JBR. Otherwise, main impact will be a wind shift associated the afternoon cold frontal passage. PWB && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1014 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025 Low fire weather danger forecast through the period. Minimum relative humidity values will remain above 40% with light 20 ft winds. Wetting rains will return Saturday afternoon, lasting through Sunday morning. Rain accumulations will generally be light with only up to a half inch possible across portions of West Tennessee. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...PWB
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
A small swath of Severe (D2) Drought conditions improved by 2 classes by month's end.
A small swath of Severe (D2) Drought conditions improved by 2 classes by month's end.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, November 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1300084, 1300085.