Abundant moisture and instability led to the development of scattered thunderstorms across Middle Tennessee on July 22, 2025. One particular thunderstorm near Lawrenceburg downed several trees in the area.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OHX wrote it up.
Abundant moisture and instability led to the development of scattered thunderstorms across Middle Tennessee on July 22, 2025. One particular thunderstorm near Lawrenceburg downed several trees in the area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 22, 5:20 PM CST, 40 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 620 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 614 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 - Hot and humid conditions will continue through the week. A Heat Advisory is in effect through Wednesday. - Chances for showers and storm will decrease through the next couple of days (10 to 20 percent midweek), then increase again late week (20 to 50 percent this weekend). - Widespread severe wx is not expected, but a few storms each afternoon will produce very heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and localized gusty winds. && .UPDATE... Issued at 614 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 There are some isolated showers and storms still out there at update time, but very few. This trend should continue through the rest of the night, with radar clearing up in the next hour or two. That means the only thing left to talk about for the overnight period is any fog that may develop. Best chances for this to occur is if you saw rain this afternoon. Otherwise, warm and humid conditions will persist overnight. As far as extending the Heat Advisory to Thursday, I expect I will have to. Will allow this evening's model suite to come in, but the chances are high, as of right now. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1112 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 The oppressive heat continues across the region. Currently at this hour temperatures are in the 80s with dew points spanning the 70s resulting in heat index values in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. Heat index values should top out in the 105-110 range west of the plateau this afternoon. As far as any chances of storms temporarily cooling things off today, the best chances will be in the south and west. Looking at visible imagery, the Cu field is developing along and south of a boundary draped from NW to SE from Humphreys Co toward Lincoln Co. CAMs have been focusing potential afternoon activity in this vicinity. Patchy fog will develop again tonight with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. There isn't a whole lot that changes for Wednesday besides less convective coverage with some stronger subsidence. Dew points will remain in the 70s with afternoon heat index values around the 105-110 range west of the plateau. The heat advisory will continue for Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1112 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 The pattern remains pretty stagnant in the extended period with hot temperatures and persistent humidity. NBM heat index values slightly decrease for Thursday and Friday but I'm not sold on this given a lack of convective coverage. Still, we have some time, so I won't extend the Heat Advisory into Thursday at this point. The diurnal PoPs will be low 10-30% for Thursday and Friday before increasing to 20-50% for the weekend. The upper high looks like it will strengthen over the plains late this weekend into early next week which means temperatures may get even warmer locally early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 600 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Isolated thunderstorms over the region at 23Z were dissipating, so the evening will bring nice VFR conditions and light winds to all terminals. Later tonight, patchy fog will form with brief vsby impacts at CKV/MQY and several hours of impacts for SRB/CSV, including periods of LIFR. Fog will lift at all sites by 14Z. Isolated storms are possible Wednesday, but with a strong ridge pattern, coverage will be too limited to include anything in tafs attm. Winds will be light from the east to south with scattered cumulus clouds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 74 97 76 96 / 0 10 0 10 Clarksville 74 95 77 94 / 0 10 0 10 Crossville 67 89 69 89 / 0 30 0 20 Columbia 73 94 74 94 / 10 10 0 20 Cookeville 69 91 72 91 / 0 20 0 20 Jamestown 67 89 70 90 / 0 20 0 20 Lawrenceburg 72 94 73 93 / 0 20 0 20 Murfreesboro 72 96 74 95 / 0 10 0 20 Waverly 74 94 75 94 / 10 10 0 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TNZ005>009-023>030- 056>063-075-077-093>095. && UPDATE.......Unger SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....13
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
654 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025
TNZ094-230030-
Lawrence TN-
654 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY
THROUGH 730 PM CDT...
At 654 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lawrenceburg, moving south at 5 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Lawrenceburg, Loretto, and Leoma.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3523 8748 3527 8727 3508 8722 3505 8747
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 348DEG 6KT 3522 8736
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
13The Northeast Alabama radar (KHTX), 119 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:03 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Several trees were downed in the Lawrenceburg area, including one that fell on a car along 4th Street. Damages are a rough estimate.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1265811.