An abnormally dry December 2025 resulted in worsening drought conditions across Middle Tennessee. Rain totals across the area generally ranged from 1 to 3 inches which was below normal for the month.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OHX wrote it up.
An abnormally dry December 2025 resulted in worsening drought conditions across Middle Tennessee. Rain totals across the area generally ranged from 1 to 3 inches which was below normal for the month. But the biggest rain deficit was measured across the far eastern Cumberland Plateau. Crossville measured only 1.44 inches of rain during the month which was 3.90 inches below normal. By the end of December, 44 percent of Middle Tennessee was classified as moderate drought with about 2 percent of that in severe drought.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 29, 10:41 PM CST, 1 hour 19 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1041 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1035 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 - Expect very cold conditions through Tuesday night with highs tomorrow in the 30s and lows tonight and Tuesday night in the teens and 20s. - Look for rain-free weather with temperatures near seasonal norms on NYE and New Year's Day. - Our next rain chances won't happen until Friday and Friday night. No hazardous weather is expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 931 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Surface high pressure centered over the Great Plains is already ridging into Middle Tennessee, hence the stable atmosphere that has settled over the region. An upper trough has just exited the mid state, so we are left with a northwest flow aloft and still a broad swath of low-level moisture left to rotate through. Already, we are seeing low ceilings at most Middle Tennessee locations, and these will stick around for most of the night. This is helping to reduce the effects of radiation cooling, so, although we're expecting a cold night, temperatures won't drop as low as they otherwise would. We'll maintain our northwest surface flow on Tuesday, so highs tomorrow will be similar to today's. However, warmer weather will soon be on the way. Although we won't experience meaningful return flow until the end of the week, the cold advection pattern we're currently "enjoying" will break down Tuesday night and Wednesday, and this will at least allow for warmer temperatures. So readings on Wednesday and Thursday will more or less return to seasonal normals. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 931 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 The next active weather system will bring rain chances to Middle Tennessee Friday, Friday night and perhaps into Saturday as a low pressure system takes an easterly track just to our south. So we will stay on the cool side of this system, and that means we likely won't experience much in the way of convective activity, and temperatures from Friday onward look to level off just above seasonal norms. Storm total QPF resulting from this system ranges from less than 1/4" across northwest portions of Middle Tennessee to more than 1/2" over southeast areas of the mid state. So we should receive a little more rainfall with the upcoming system than from last night's cold front. There is the possibility of a more impactful low pressure system affecting the region mid to late next week as we reach the end of the 10-day NBM forecast. The current 6-10 day outlook favors above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall across Middle Tennessee, while the 8-14 outlook favors above normal temperatures and near normal rainfall. At this time, it is safe to say that hazardous weather is not expected in Middle Tennessee for the foreseeable future. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1035 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Low clouds will continue to impact Middle Tennessee during the overnight period and early Tuesday. Generally, ceilings should remain VFR west of the Cumberland Plateau, and MVFR along the Plateau. Winds will remain 6+ kts overnight and much of the day tomorrow, but should relax by late afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 22 37 27 49 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 21 36 27 46 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 16 32 21 43 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 21 38 24 49 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 18 33 22 43 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 16 31 22 41 / 0 10 0 0 Lawrenceburg 21 38 23 49 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 21 37 23 49 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 20 36 26 46 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....Rose
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe drought conditions developed across eastern Cumberland County at the end of December 2025.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, December 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1304332.