A strong upper-level storm system tracked through the eastern portion of the United States on December 18, 2025. A very strong jet and potent cold front was associated with this system.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OHX wrote it up.
A strong upper-level storm system tracked through the eastern portion of the United States on December 18, 2025. A very strong jet and potent cold front was associated with this system. As it neared Middle Tennessee, southerly winds strengthened ahead of it during the afternoon hours and continued to strengthen as the cold front and a line of showers with isolated thunderstorms swept east through the area. Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph were common with some sporadic wind gusts over 50 mph with these showers. This caused several reports of downed trees, mainly across central portions of Middle Tennessee. Meanwhile, one particular thunderstorm strengthened as it moved through Warren County. It caused a swath of damaging straight-line winds near McMinnville which caused tree and structural damage there.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 18, 11:54 AM CST, 5 hours 27 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1154 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1154 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 - High rain chances with periods of showers through this evening. Chances for thunderstorms are low. - Breezy through this evening with gusts around 35 mph at times. - Above-normal temperatures are favored through the Christmas holiday. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1153 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Late Thursday morning, a cold front was pushing eastward toward the Ms River. Widespread warm advection ahead of this front had created bands of showers and gusty winds across the region. This pattern will continue through this evening with the front crossing Middle TN between 6 PM and 11 PM CST. BNA has already had a gust of 35 mph. Most of the winds today will peak around 35 mph, keeping us below wind advisory levels. Between the showers this afternoon we may briefly "mix down" a few gusts near 40 mph. Otherwise, thunder chances will be on the low side with barely any cape (max values around 300 J/kg in our far southwest). Some cape distributed aloft is shown dissipating as the showers and few embedded storms approach the Mid State. With saturated soundings, any available convective energy will tend to enhance downpours rather than pose any severe threat. Rain will taper off quickly late tonight after the front passes and wind gusts will begin to settle down. Dry, cool high pressure will move in dropping temps to the upper 20s and lower 30s by daybreak. Friday will be chilly with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. There will be a west northwest breeze, but much less than today. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1153 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Zonal flow aloft through the weekend will allow temperatures to rebound to the mild side of normal. A weak front will move through with very small shower chances Saturday night. Otherwise, the wx will be quiet. Temps will warm well into the 50s to around 60 Saturday, a little cooler behind the front Sunday, then up again Monday. Looking ahead through the Christmas holiday week, a low amplitude ridge will build up over the plains then move eastward. This will create a warming trend with highs climbing well into the 60s (maybe lower 70s) by Christmas. A couple of weak shortwave will bring some on and off low chances for showers, but nothing hazardous and nothing to significantly impact travel. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Generally MVFR/IFR cigs overspread Middle TN today ahead of a strong low pressure system. A tight surface pressure gradient is associated with this low, resulting in gusty southerly winds. Sustained speeds are near 15 kts with gusts up to 30 kts. The strongest gusts should come to an end after 05Z, though gusts between 15 to 20 kts will remain likely through Friday morning. A line of heavier rain will move in from west to east after 22Z, bringing periods of reduced vis. There will be some SW low-level wind shear that will occur as this line is moving through. There is a very low chance for any thunder, so have not included this in the taf. Cigs will gradually lift to VFR thresholds behind the line of rain this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 61 30 44 30 / 100 100 0 0 Clarksville 61 28 42 30 / 100 90 0 0 Crossville 56 26 39 26 / 100 100 0 0 Columbia 60 30 45 30 / 100 100 0 0 Cookeville 58 27 39 28 / 100 100 0 0 Jamestown 56 25 38 26 / 100 100 0 0 Lawrenceburg 60 30 45 30 / 100 100 0 0 Murfreesboro 61 30 44 29 / 100 100 0 0 Waverly 59 27 42 30 / 100 90 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION.....Baggett
The Ft Campbell radar (KHPX), 57 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:18 UTC.
11 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Mesonet measured 60 mph in Dover and 50 mph in Brownsfield, reported by Emergency Manager. Around 500 power outages also reported.
Several trees were reported down in the Cross Plains and Orlinda areas of Robertson County. Damages are a rough estimate. A 50 mph wind gust was also reported by the emergency manager earlier in Springfield.
An AWOS station at John Tune Airport in west Nashville measured a brief wind gust up to 59 mph. Various weather stations across Davidson County measured wind gusts ranging from 40 to 50 mph which caused sporadic tree damage. Damages are a rough estimate.
Numerous trees were reported downed in the Spring Hill area with one tree falling on a vehicle along Clara Mathis Road and Green Mill Road. Damages are a rough estimate.
A tree fell on a house along Jill Drive east of Lawrenceburg. Several other trees down reported across the county. Damages are a rough estimate.
Several trees were downed in the Gallatin and Westmoreland areas. Damages are a rough estimate.
Trees were reported down on N Chapel Road between TN 96 and Wilson Pike in Franklin. Damages are a rough estimate.
Several trees were blown down in the Chapel Hill area along with a blown in garage. Damages are a rough estimate.
Several trees were reported down in the Murfreesboro area with some blocking roads. Multiple instances of trees falling onto homes were reported, causing structural damage. Damages are a rough estimate.
Strong thunderstorm winds broke a power pole on Frank Hold Lane near Bradyville. Damages are a rough estimate.
A swath of damaging wind occurred across portions of Warren County on the evening of December 18th. Damage was sporadic across the area, consisting of trees and tree branches down, some broken power powers, several sheds blown over at a local business, and|several other farm outbuildings with metal roofing peeled off by the wind. There were also a few trees that fell on either houses, farm outbuildings, or sheds. Winds were generally 60-70 mph,|though a few areas likely reached 80 mph. Damages are a rough estimate.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, December 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1305980, 1303384, 1303387, 1303386, 1303382, 1303388, 1303392, 1303390, 1303393, 1297825, 1297828.