Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developed during the afternoon and evening hours of the 23rd. The slow moving nature of these storms resulted in heavy rains and notable flooding near the I-26 corridor between Kingsport and Johnson City.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MRX wrote it up.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developed during the afternoon and evening hours of the 23rd. The slow moving nature of these storms resulted in heavy rains and notable flooding near the I-26 corridor between Kingsport and Johnson City.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Morristown, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 23, 1:02 PM EST, 4 hours 28 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 202 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 135 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Key Messages: 1. Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorm through this evening with showers continuing. Localized flash flooding is possible through this evening. 2. Strong frontal boundary moves through Sunday. Scattered showers and possibly embedded thunder again. 3. Much cooler, pleasant and dry conditions for much of next week. Discussion: SPC meso-analysis shows MLCAPES of around 1000 with DCAPES near 600. Little to no shear. A theta-e ridge axis is evident over the Plateau along a surface trough axis. PWs are near 1.8 inches along this axis. If training of showers occur, localized flash flooding is possible. Conditions are not favorable for severe storms but isolated gusts up to 40 mph possible. REFS and HREF show the greatest coverage of showers and storms across the Plateau, central Tennessee valley and southwest Virginia through this evening. A slow moving 925mb/Surface front-genetic forcing remains across the region through Sunday. Strong cool front will move across the region late tomorrow moving the theta-e ridge axis east of the area. Until then scattered to occasional widespread showers and embedded thunder will remain. For Monday through next Saturday, ensemble cluster analysis and deterministic models show a deep upper trough over the eastern third of the nation. Below normal temperatures. much drier airmass, and mostly dry conditions are expected. NBM probabilities show low chance of showers across southeast Tennessee for late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Latest deterministic GFS depicts showers as well but confidence is too low to include in the forecast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 123 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm will be the main concern through this evening. REFS and HREF show the greatest coverage across TYS. For early Sunday morning, fog and low-cloud development can be expected. IFR/LIFR due to low ceilings is possible especially at TRI and TYS. A gradual improvement in flight conditions are anticipated for Sunday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 87 63 82 / 60 20 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 85 62 80 / 60 30 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 68 85 59 79 / 70 30 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 82 59 77 / 50 40 10 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && DISCUSSION...DH AVIATION...DH
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Morristown TN 137 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002- 005-006-008-241745- Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins- Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen- Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene- Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter- Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount- Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe- Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee- Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA- 137 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 /1237 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Scattered showers and storms are likely this afternoon and evening. Due to recent heavy rainfall and abundant moisture, localized flash flooding is possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Reports of flooding are encouraged this afternoon and evening.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
535 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025
TNZ017-044-VAZ005-232215-
Sullivan TN-Washington TN-Scott VA-
535 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN SULLIVAN...NORTHEASTERN
WASHINGTON AND SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...
At 534 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Oak Grove, or near Johnson City, moving north at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Johnson City, Kingsport, Bristol Tn, Bristol Va, Gray, Oak Grove,
Walnut Hill, Spurgeon, Colonial Heights, and Bluff City.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3632 8236 3635 8256 3666 8251 3662 8231
3660 8229 3660 8222 3659 8219
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 195DEG 11KT 3641 8243
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPHThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Social media photos showed water over roads, in addition to several feet of water in a low spot next to the road.
Photos from social media showed water coming into the first level of a house near Cedar Valley Blvd, likely due to fast rises on nearby South Fork Cedar Creek.
Social media photo showed Boones Creek Road closed near the railroad crossing due to flooding.
Photos from social media showed flooding in the Oak Grove Village mobile home park in Oak Grove. Based on the photo, water depth is estimated to be at least 1 foot deep.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, August 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1291177, 1291178, 1291179, 1291180.