NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 24, 3:42 AM AST, 53 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area forecast discussion, Dec 24, 3:42 AM AST, 53 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
342 AM AST Wed Dec 24 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 317 AM AST Wed Dec 24 2025
* A frontal boundary will be across the area through early
Thursday, increasing the frequency of showers, mainly overnight
and during the morning hours. Rainfall amounts are expected to
remain limited, with minor ponding of water on roads and in
poorly drained areas possible, today.
* Marine and coastal conditions will stay hazardous through the
weekend as increasing northeasterly winds and multiple pulses of
long-period northerly swell create choppy to rough seas and
hazardous conditions for small craft.
* Rip current risk remains high along exposed northern and eastern
beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra along with a High Surf
Advisory, as a northerly swell builds and persists through the
end of the week.
&&
.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 317 AM AST Wed Dec 24 2025
Persistent showers have moved in under a northeasterly wind flow
along Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. These showers, although
heavy at times, left just above half an inch of rainfall from
Luquillo to Naguabo, and much less amounts elsewhere.
A frontal boundary is currently approaching the local islands, hence
the showery pattern will persist through much of Christmas Eve. In
fact, the most recent precipitable water products show values just
shy of 1.5 inches, which is what it's expected for this time of
year. Behind the front, high pressure maintains the winds from the
northeast, at speeds of 15 to 20 knots, gusting up to 25 knots. This
breeze will make the showers move faster, reducing the risk of
flooding. Nevertheless, wet roads and ponding of water can be
anticipated today and tonight. Also, late in the afternoon, showers
will fire up along the southwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico. While
thunderstorms were not explicitly added into the forecast, mid
levels temperatures are cool enough to support some isolated
lightning.
On Christmas Day, lingering showers will persist in the early
morning hours, especially for portions of northern Puerto Rico and
also along the Virgin Islands. Later in the day, as the front
crosses the area, a much drier air mass will filter in. This will
cause showers to taper off, with the probability of precipitation
falling from 40-50% today to 10-30% tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Something extra to notice is that temperatures will cool down too,
with values nearly one standard deviation below normal. This will be
more noticeable in the mountains, with lows cooling down to the 50s
and 60s, and in the upper 60s and low 70s in higher elevations. A
similar pattern can be anticipated for Friday, with a low change of
rain, and cooler than normal temperatures.
&&
.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 317 AM AST Wed Dec 24 2025
The inherited forecast remains on track. Drier air behind a frontal
boundary will dominate the region through Monday, with
precipitable water (PWAT) values generally around or below 1.0
inch. However, isolated patches of moisture with PWAT values
reaching around 1.2 inches may occasionally move across the area,
promoting passing showers from time to time. Despite the overall
dry pattern, upper-level troughs will lift northeast of the area
during the latter part of the weekend, while a building surface
high over the western Atlantic and a frontal low over the north-
central Atlantic will promote a northeasterly steering flow at the
start of the period. Model guidance indicates that winds will
gradually veer early next week, promoting a southeasterly flow by
the end of the period. Minimum temperatures are expected to range
from the 50s to low 60s across higher elevations of Puerto Rico,
the upper 60s to mid 70s across lower elevations of Puerto Rico,
and the low to mid 70s across the U.S. Virgin Islands. Maximum
temperatures are forecast to reach the mid 80s across lower
elevations, with isolated urban areas slightly warmer. These
conditions will likely support the development of patchy fog,
particularly across portions of interior Puerto Rico, mainly
during the overnight and early morning hours.
Residents and visitors are encouraged to continue monitoring the
forecast into Tuesday, as model guidance continues to suggest a
gradual increase in moisture content, which could lead to a return
of more active weather conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 317 AM AST Wed Dec 24 2025
Persistent SHRA will continue to stream along the Atlantic and
Caribbean waters, reaching all the terminals at times, but
particularly, the USVI and TJSJ ones. Brief periods of reduced VIS
and low ceilings could occur near these showers. Winds will be from
the NE at 15 kts, gusting 20-25 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM AST Wed Dec 24 2025
A series of surface highs and frontal lows will continue moving
into the Atlantic during the period, resulting in moderate to
locally fresh northeast winds through at least Wednesday, becoming
moderate by Thursday. A long-period northerly swell, from the
above mentioned frontal low, will continue to spread across the
offshore Atlantic waters today. This will result in choppy to
rough seas, becoming hazardous for small craft. These conditions
will continue throughout the week as seas build to 6 to 10 feet,
spreading to the nearshore Atlantic Waters and local Passages.
Another pulse of swell will arrive by the end of the workweek and
support deteriorated conditions throughout the weekend.
&&
.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 317 AM AST Wed Dec 24 2025
The northerly long-period swell will continues to filter over the
regional waters maintain the risk of rip currents high for
exposed northern beaches through the rest of the week. A High Surf
Advisory will also be in effect with this swell event, which
could result in localized beach erosion and dangerous swimming
conditions. Another pulse of northerly swell will arrive later in
the workweek, supporting hazardous beach conditions through the
weekend. For further information, refer to the Coastal Hazard
Message (CFWSJU).
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for PRZ001-002-
005-008.
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Thursday for PRZ001-002-005-
008.
High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ010-012.
VI...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through late tonight for
VIZ001.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST Thursday night for
AMZ711.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST Thursday night for
AMZ712-723-741.
Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight AST Thursday
night for AMZ716-742.
&&
MIDNIGHT SHIFT...ERG/MMC