A narrow stripe of heavy rain lifted northward across central Adams County the morning of May 15, 2025, producing localized flash flooding issues.
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The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
A narrow stripe of heavy rain lifted northward across central Adams County the morning of May 15, 2025, producing localized flash flooding issues.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 15, 4:58 AM EST, 32 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA Issued by National Weather Service Binghamton NY 558 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Daily chances for thunderstorms continue through Saturday with potential for damaging winds and localized flooding. * Temperatures trend warmer Friday and Saturday with a notable uptick in humid/sticky weather. * A cold front will bring much colder temperatures and less rainy/more sunny weather later this weekend and early next week with breezy conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Low ceilings, reduced visibility and some drizzle evident all across Central PA this morning as persisent southeast flow continues to keep moisture locked into place. Weak ridging aloft has contributed to a decrease in shower activity overnight and daybreak temperatures are generally in the 50s. Later today, the upper low that has enveloped the region over the past couple days will continue to lift northeast, but will be replaced by an approaching and rather vigorous northern stream upper- level wave. Lingering energy aloft from the opening up and former cutoff low could still well produce diurnally favored showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, with most of the coverage probably occurring near and east of US-15. Although precipitable water values look a little lower today than previous days, any sustained convection over hydrologically sensitive areas will have to be watched. Fortunately, most of the rain/storms today should fire up east of the areas that got hit hard by rainfall the last couple days. A Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall is in place for all of PA, but the most vulnerable locations are in Somerset and Bedford County. Good news is we should see more sunshine by this afternoon as winds turn more southerly and ridging builds in. Highs today will moderate nicely compared to yesterday, generally in the 70s across the region (+10F day over day). By this evening, a warm front will lift through the Commonwealth and bring the potential for more showers and storms overnight. The best shear/instability is not expected to make it into central PA, but decaying storms will roll through during the predawn hours and linger into Friday morning. SPC has hoisted a MRGL risk for the western half of PA where a few storms could produce some gusty winds or small hail. Daybreak temperatures on Friday will be around 60F areawide. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Latest guidance indicates a lull in the precipitation during the late morning and afternoon on Friday following the passage of the warm front. Southwest flow will continue to funnel moisture up into the northeast US as dewpoints reach their highest values so far this year (in the mid to upper 60s). It will feel noticeably humid as well. Highs in the 80s across the area appear likely with the only exception being if thunderstorms can fire up in the afternoon. Another round of convection appears likely Friday night into Saturday morning (yet again decaying as it moves across Pennsylvania from the Midwest). Severe weather appears a bit more likely with this round as 2500J/kg of MLCAPE overlaps with sufficient shear in the evening. The SPC Slight Risk gets into southwest PA, but would not be surprised to see an eastward expansion across southern PA with subsequent updates. By Saturday, a cold front will approach the Commonwealth with a convective outflow boundary likely surging out ahead of it from the previous night's convection. The outflow boundary will encounter a warm and moist airmass that could lead to development of sustained strong thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon. Still some uncertainty with how quickly a line of thunderstorms will congeal Saturday afternoon, but southeast PA would be favored for a primarily damaging wind threat, as outlined by SPC's Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) that covers York and Lancaster County. With all 3 rounds of storms, progressive storm motions should limit the risk of signficant flooding, but cannot rule out some isolated issues for locations who's soil moistures/creeks are already running high. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The latest model timing now brings a surface cold front through PA a little faster than earlier model runs (by later Saturday night). Although some upper-level energy could still produce isolated showers on Sunday, an overall drier trend should be underway. Early next week (Monday and Tuesday), a confluent NW flow pattern aloft over the Commonwealth will encourage the approach of expansive surface high pressure and a dry, cooler air mass. By the middle of next week, once the upper ridge line passes off the coast, the approach of the next disturbance aloft and surface warm front should bring a renewed threat of showers. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Reduced ceilings and visibility evident across the entire area this morning as southeast flow continues to keep low clouds/moisture locked in. Conditions should gradually improve into this afternoon as winds turn to come out of the south. VFR conditions should prevail by this evening everywhere. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, but predicability remains too low to prevail any thunder. Conditions will deteriorate again tonight. A decaying line of thunderstorms could bring some restrictions to western airfields before daybreak Friday with gusty winds possible. Outlook... Fri...Morning storms (some could be strong), improving conditions in the afternoon. Sat...Mainly VFR, isolated PM showers/storms. Sun...Some improvement, as a series of cold fronts move southeast of the area. Mon...Mainly dry with VFR conditions. Perhaps a shower early at BFD and JST, with MVFR CIGS early at these sites. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...Jurewicz/Banghoff NEAR TERM...Jurewicz/Banghoff SHORT TERM...Jurewicz/Banghoff LONG TERM...Jurewicz/Banghoff AVIATION...Banghoff/Martin
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA Issued by National Weather Service Binghamton NY 447 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025 PAZ028-037-041-042-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-160900- Juniata-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Lycoming-Union- Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill- Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 447 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible Friday and Saturday. Isolated flooding may also occur. In addition to typical afternoon thunderstorms, a few strong storms may occur overnight. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>027-033>036-045-160900- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin- Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Southern Clinton- 447 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible late tonight into early Friday morning. Locally heavy rainfall from thunderstorms could produce flash flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible again Friday afternoon and overnight. Flooding is possible in locations that have had significant rainfall recently. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.
The Sterling radar (KLWX), 103 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 10:31 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Localized heavy rain led to a bridge being washed out near the intersection of York Road and Centennial Road in Straban Township.
Heavy rain led to the intersection of Swift Run and New Chester roads in Straban Township becoming flooded and impassable.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1246367, 1246368.