A frontal boundary stationed across western Pennsylvania allowed for showers and thunderstorms to form during the morning hours of June 27, 2025. Favorable instability and marginal shear across central Pennsylvania allowed for thunderstorm development to begin by late morning and continue into the evening hours.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
A frontal boundary stationed across western Pennsylvania allowed for showers and thunderstorms to form during the morning hours of June 27, 2025. Favorable instability and marginal shear across central Pennsylvania allowed for thunderstorm development to begin by late morning and continue into the evening hours. Ample moisture in place allowed for heavy rainfall in nearly stationary storms across portions of the Lower Susquehanna Valley to prompt flash flooding across northern Lancaster County, with multiple roadways closed. Slightly favorable shear became present across western Pennsylvania during the afternoon hours, allowing for strong-to-severe thunderstorms across the western third of the state, which caused an isolated instance of tree damage in Warren County before thunderstorm intensity decreased into the evening hours.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 27, 6:29 AM EST, 4 hours 56 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 729 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Isolated showers overnight with patchy fog possible in the valleys before daybreak Friday. * Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday, but max temps will be much cooler than what occurred Thursday. * Breaking heat gives way to drenching downpours into the last weekend of June; unsettled pattern continues to start July && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Rain showers dissipated overnight then have made a curtain call as a frontal boundary slowly slides west across central PA. While not widespread, the showers have popped up generally south of a US Route 22 line. Expect these isolated showers to speckle the area as dewpoints remain near 70 west of Route 322. A few locations have patchy dense fog but it is not widespread at this time. As the lower dewpoints move west today, expect a stratus/patchy drizzle scenario east of the Laurel mountains with more concentrated shower and convection over the higher elevations of Somerset and Cambria counties as the front bumps into the elevated terrain. Latest HRRR paints the heaviest afternoon QPF south of PA but with terrain influence, can not rule out a heavier downpour over my southwest. Coordination with surrounding offices will hold off on any headlines as Somerset and Cambria have seen a relative min in precip amounts over the past 72-96 hours - allowing for their FF guidance to rebound. But will watch if any convection forms earlier in the day. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Unsettled pattern continues through the last weekend/end of June with daily opportunities for drenching downpours. The cooler airmass will be short lived as it relaxes back to the northeast of the state this weekend. This will bring a return to the seasonably hot/humid summertime conditions through Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The anomalous upper-level ridge that brought heat to much of the eastern United States will continue to gradually be suppressed to the south in the extended period, and long range models suggest that it should be replaced by an upper level trough over the northeastern United States by the middle of next week. As for sensible weather...the unsettled pattern will persist into at least the first half of the upcoming weekend, with SHRA/TSRA likely on Saturday, especially in the afternoon and evening. Sunday looks like the better day of the weekend, with a small area of high pressure building in, and keeping PoPs less than 40 percent. An approaching cold front and upper trough will bring more widespread SHRA/TSRA later Monday into Tuesday. After that, we could be in for a welcome shot of cooler and drier weather for the middle to later part of next week. Surface high pressure is expected to take over on Wednesday, and the upper level trough will lift out of the mid-atlantic region. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Made a few changes here at the last minute. Main thing was to edge off a bit on the real low CIGS etc a bit here. Earlier discussion below. Unlike last night, the main concern today is lower CIGS. Last night was areas of fog. Some signal that we may get a brief break from the showers and storms by Sunday. Some showers near JST the next few hours, but most areas should be dry for much of the day. With limited heating today, the chc for storms will be lower. Outlook... Sat-Tue...Showers and t-storms with times of fog and low clouds overnight. Sunday looking like the best day to stay dry. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...Bowen NEAR TERM...Tyburski SHORT TERM...Bowen/Tyburski LONG TERM...Colbert/Bowen AVIATION...Martin
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</html>Special Weather Statement National Weather Service State College PA 1014 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025 PAZ059-066-271600- Lebanon-Lancaster- 1014 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025 ...SLOW MOVING HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN LANCASTER AND SOUTHERN LEBANON COUNTIES... Heavy rain from slow moving showers and thunderstorms will bring * Very heavy rainfall of 1 to 2 inches in an hour. * Localized straight line wind gusts up to 40 MPH. The training heavy showers and thunderstorms could produce flooding in poor drainage areas and in low spots along some small stream and creek, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from your National Weather Service. Lambert
The Sterling radar (KLWX), 156 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:26 UTC.
2 flash flood, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Standing water closed a section of Mount Joy Rd (PA-772) in Rapho Township.
A section of North Colebrook Road was closed along a flooded creek in Rapho Township.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked a large tree down on Conewango Avenue at Mader Drive approximately 1 mile south of Russell.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, June 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1266687, 1266688, 1261603.