Low pressure tracking relatively slow through the Great Lakes on the 18th and 19th resulted in flooding and damaging winds with 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE and sufficient effective shear across the region.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PBZ wrote it up.
Low pressure tracking relatively slow through the Great Lakes on the 18th and 19th resulted in flooding and damaging winds with 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE and sufficient effective shear across the region.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Pittsburgh, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 18, 12:54 PM EST, 2 hours 37 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 154 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and possible thunderstorms expected Wednesday afternoon and evening, some of which could be severe late Wednesday night. Thunderstorm chances will remain on Thursday with the approach and passage of a cold front. Dry weather returns Friday with excessive heat probability increasing through the middle of next week under high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Scattered showers/thunderstorms capable of heavy rainfall. - Another push of thunderstorms with severe threat possible tonight. --------------------------------------------------------------- With Tuesday's surface boundary now displaced to our east, we're left within a transitional zone ahead of low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes and a cold front sweeping through Indiana and Ohio. Quasi-zonal mid-level flow with still a southwest component has maintained the moist, stagnant airmass today. Observed PWAT value off our 12z sounding was 1.85" which is above the daily max. Recent PIT ACARS soundings also show a similar environment to Tuesday with tall, skinny CAPE and the widest CAPE profile below -10C, warm cloud depths to 14-15kft, and weak deep layer flow supporting slow moving showers and lower probability thunderstorms. Rates thus far through the morning have been slightly less than Tuesday but still falling in the 1-2 inch/hour range and couldn't rule out up to locally 3"/hour given the similar environment and what has been observed recently. Thus, localized flash flooding remains a threat today, especially in areas that see training and those who got hit the hardest yesterday. CAMs still want to diminish the coverage into the afternoon hours as a sinking subsidence inversion sets in. Not completely sold that we'll see a dry afternoon given the environment in place and lingering boundaries around, but it's plausible that the flooding threat should lessen given the lack of coverage to result in repeated rounds of heavy rainfall. Uncertainty then creeps in late tonight as what is likely to be an ongoing line of thunderstorms progresses across Indiana and Ohio along a pre-frontal trough. As typical, CAMs want to weaken it considerably after sunset and before it reaches our eastern Ohio counties as it outruns the best instability, but this could be a more pessimistic solution than reality, especially across eastern Ohio. Low and mid level flow is forecast to increase with the approach of an associated upper trough allowing effective shear to reach 25-30 knots with notable veering atop backed southerly flow. Forecast soundings from the CAMs still support 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE atop a stabilizing surface over that way. This environment would support maintenance of convection into the early overnight hours into eastern Ohio and with lesser confidence western Pennsylvania. If it can maintain, primary threat would be damaging wind punching through a weak surface inversion. Couldn't entirely rule out a tornado threat either with the veering wind profile and >150 m2/s2 of 0-1 SRH, but that threat will be highly dependent on how strong the surface inversion is and if the storms root at the surface. Most likely timing would be after 10pm into eastern Ohio and after midnight if it reaches into western PA. Accordingly, a Slight Risk (2/5) has been expanded to our eastern Ohio and WV panhandle counties while a a Marginal Risk (1/5) remains across to the east, again with the highest (but still lower) confidence in eastern Ohio. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Additional showers and thunderstorms with severe possibility on Thursday. - Drying out on Friday with above-normal temperatures. ---------------------------------------------------------------- The cold front itself is progged to punch through on Thursday coincident with the most notable height falls and upper support as surface low pressure crosses to our north. Most likely timing is the mid to late afternoon hours, after 3pm or so, but a few models do suggest a slightly later passage. The biggest question will be how much instability we're able to regenerate before its passage despite the passage itself being at a favorable time. The optimistic cloud coverage solution from the HREF still maintains areas of clouds with only pockets of clearing while the most likely solution keeps mostly cloudy skies across the area through the afternoon hours. Thus, probability for >1000 J/kg SBCAPE peaks around 60-70% south of Pittsburgh and <50% to the north. Deep layer shear will be in place with ensemble mean of 30-40 knots of 0-6 km. Some development is possible by early afternoon along a pre-frontal trough/as convective temperatures are met which could muddy the picture further. Given the environment, think that the highest severe probability likely lies from Pittsburgh and south coincident with the best overlap of CAPE and shear. The primary threat will be damaging wind in any congealed line segments with straight hodographs. Machine learning suggests this area for a lower end threat as well, and SPC has maintained the Marginal Risk (1/5) across our area. Friday should finally see a drier day in the wake of the boundary, though a change in airmass doesn't appear too likely with a brief bout of northwest flow quickly flipping west to southwest again as high pressure builds in across West Virginia. NBM MaxT spread is pretty small with highs likely in the low to mid 80s and the start of a significant warm up headed into the weekend and next week. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Turning drier with excessive heat threat ramping up into next week. ------------------------------------------------------------------- The story of the long term period is going to turn from rain and flooding to a prolonged period of dangerous, excessive heat. Saturday will be dry with highs ramping up into the mid to upper 80s and dew points in the upper 60s. Sunday begins the period of excessive heat. Longer range ensembles exhibit quite a bit of certainty on a strong upper ridge building across the eastern CONUS with a 90+% chance of 500 mb heights >590 dam. NBM probability for highs >95F peak at 70-80% in the urban areas and valleys Monday and Tuesday. Combined with dew points into the 70s, heat indices are likely to top the 100-105F range for multiple days. Climatological tools point toward heights 2-3+ SD above normal for late June. While we can get plagued by diurnally driven clouds and precipitation in these patterns with localized effects, a significant warm up to well-above normal temperatures is likely, and the threat may be long lived over the course of several days with little relief at night. Probability for lows >70F is 80- 90+% Monday-Wednesday nights. The takeaway message at this point is that several days excessive, dangerous heat is increasing probability across the entire area and compounding effects could be significant. If trends hold, heat headlines will be likely. Record lows and highs may be in jeopardy as well... see the climate section for more. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Shower activity wanes towards evening as weak subsidence overspreads the area from the west, with the exception being FKL/DUJ as hi-res models continue to suggest ongoing convection along the Lake Erie shoreline eventually pushes southeastward into northwest PA. Gradual improvement in ceilings has occurred over the course of the afternoon, with most terminals now at high-end MVFR or VFR. Widespread improvement to VFR should continue to occur through the rest of the afternoon. A potentially decaying MCS will approach the region from the west after 02z with uncertainty on its ability to maintain lighting/heavy rain/gusty wind potential. Probabilities of such impact are highest at ZZV but notably drop off toward western PA. Moisture convergence ahead of the main surface boundary and the upper trough favors MVFR to localized IFR cig development just prior to 12z lasting into mid Thursday morning. West- southwest winds increase Thursday mid to late morning as the local pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching front. Scattered development of showers and storms is also likely during that time with the onset of daytime heating/mixing. Outlook... The passage of a surface front and upper trough axis will generate scattered to numerous showers with isolated thunderstorms Thursday afternoon; probabilities favor MGW/LBE as most likely to experience highest gusts/rainfall rates and lightning impact. Outside of lingering moisture fueling isolated to scattered showers Friday, the outlook favors a prolonged period of VFR Friday afternoon into next week under the influence of high pressure and large ridging overhead. && .CLIMATE... Daily record high maximum (left) and daily record high minimum (right) temperatures will be in jeopardy starting this coming Sunday: Sunday June 22nd Pittsburgh, PA: 98F (1988) 75F (1988) Zanesville, OH: 99F (1988) 71F (1997) Morgantown, WV: 96F (1923, 1988) 73F (1988) Dubois, PA: 92F (2024) 69F (2024) Wheeling, WV: 95F (1923, 2024) 72F (2011) New Philadelphia, OH: 97F (1988) 71F (1997) Monday June 23rd Pittsburgh, PA: 95F (1894) 76F (1888) Zanesville, OH: 96F (1899) 70F (1975) Morgantown, WV: 95F (1899) 71F (1957) Dubois, PA: 88F (1966) 66F (2017) Wheeling, WV: 94F (1948) 69F (2013) New Philadelphia, OH: 97F (1988) 72F (1948) Tuesday June 24th Pittsburgh, PA: 96F (1882) 72F (1884) Zanesville, OH: 98F (1930) 73F (1937) Morgantown, WV: 94F (1921, 1949) 76F (1924) Dubois, PA: 88F (1966) 67F (2013) Wheeling, WV: 98F (1933, 1943) 73F (1908) New Philadelphia, OH: 94F (1964) 70F (1975) Wednesday June 25th Pittsburgh, PA: 98F (1988) 75F (1952) Zanesville, OH: 101F (1988) 72F (1952) Morgantown, WV: 94F (1921, 1952, 1988) 74F (1952) Dubois, PA: 91F (1966) 67F (2000) Wheeling, WV: 97F (1943) 75F (1952) New Philadelphia, OH: 92F (1966, 2002, 2005) 68F (2013) Thursday June 26th Pittsburgh, PA: 95F (1966) 75F (1952) Zanesville, OH: 97F (1952) 73F (1952) Morgantown, WV: 96F (1952) 74F (1952) Dubois, PA: 91F (1966) 66F (2000) Wheeling, WV: 96F (1943, 1952) 73F (1952) New Philadelphia, OH: 99F (1988) 71F (2022) && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && SYNOPSIS...MLB NEAR TERM...MLB SHORT TERM...MLB LONG TERM...MLB AVIATION...Cermak/Frazier CLIMATE...MLB
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1257 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025 PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078-WVZ021-509>514-191700- Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver- Allegheny-Armstrong-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland- Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Fayette- Higher Elevations of Fayette-Indiana-Higher Elevations of Indiana- Marion-Monongalia- Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston- Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker- 1257 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. There is a Marginal Risk for both severe thunderstorms and flash flooding today. Most likely timing for severe thunderstorms will be after midnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. There is a Marginal Risk for both severe thunderstorms and flash flooding again on Thursday. Building heat and humidity may cause temperatures to climb into the low to mid 90s Sunday through Tuesday, with heat indices near or above 100 degrees possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-WVZ001>004-012-191700- Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH- Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall- Wetzel- 1257 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, and northern West Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms and a Marginal Risk for flash flooding again on Thursday. Most likely timing for severe thunderstorms will be after 10pm. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms again on Thursday. Building heat and humidity may cause temperatures to climb into the low to mid 90s Sunday through Tuesday, with heat indices near or above 100 degrees possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. MLB
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 350 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025 PAZ007>009-013>016-022-077-078-182300- Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA- Armstrong-Indiana-Higher Elevations of Indiana- Including the cities of Sharon, Hermitage, Grove City, Oil City, Franklin, Tionesta, New Castle, Ellwood City, Butler, Clarion, Punxsutawney, Brookville, Kittanning, Ford City, Indiana, and Armagh 350 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025 ...THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WIND THIS AFTERNOON... A line of thunderstorms will move across the region through late afternoon. Wind gusts from 40 to 50 mph will be possible in the strongest storms, along with brief heavy rain. With saturated soil, this could result in a few downed trees, and ponding of water on roads. Small tree limbs could also be blown down. Use caution when encountering these storms. WM
The Pittsburgh radar (KPBZ), 82 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:31 UTC.
18 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A utility pole was reported down on Stanton Street.
A tree was reported down at Fourth Avenue and Reed Street.
A tree was reported down across State Street that knocked power lines down.
A tree was reported down on Old Mercer Road.
A tree was reported down on Creek Road.
A tree was reported down at Village Park Drive.
A tree was reported down on West Market Street.
Trees were reported down at Sovereign Street and Ivory Avenue.
Wires were reported down in North Buffalo.
A tree was reported down on North Good Hope Road.
A tree was reported down along Route 62.
Trees were reported in Adams Township.
A tree was reported down on Laurel Ave.
A tree was reported down in Butler.
A power line was down along Otto Road.
Trees were uprooted in Homer City.
A tree was reported down on Lucerne Road.
A tree was reported down.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, June 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1278710, 1278706, 1278704, 1278702, 1278701, 1278700, 1278699, 1278697, 1278696, 1278694, 1278693, 1278690, 1278692, 1278689, 1278691, 1278685, 1278687, 1278686.