Surface cold front stationed north of the region gradually drifted southward across the northern half of Pennsylvania during the afternoon hours of July 3, 2025. A localized jet maximum stationed across the Great Lakes gradually shifted eastward in this same timeframe, allowing for portions of northeastern Pennsylvania to be stationed in the left exit region of the jet, with upward velocity in a…
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The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
Surface cold front stationed north of the region gradually drifted southward across the northern half of Pennsylvania during the afternoon hours of July 3, 2025. A localized jet maximum stationed across the Great Lakes gradually shifted eastward in this same timeframe, allowing for portions of northeastern Pennsylvania to be stationed in the left exit region of the jet, with upward velocity in a highly unstable environment allowing for scattered convection to form. Low-level shear remained sufficient to allow for strengthening updrafts, allowing for damaging winds across portions of Tioga, Columbia, and Schuylkill counties with large hail reported in eastern Schuylkill County. Strong-to-severe thunderstorms persisted into the evening hours, knocking a tree down in Harrisburg.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 3, 11:20 AM EST, 2 hours 10 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1220 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Scattered storms late this afternoon and very early evening as a cold front moves through. Some may be accompanied by strong gusty winds and hail. * Drier/less humid/more comfortable conditions are likely for Independence Day. * Trending warmer and more humid but rain-free this weekend * Hot and unsettled weather returns next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Weak sfc ridging and deep layer subsidence across much of PA that was located between 2 jet segments and within the descending portions of one thermally indirect circulation (100 kt jet diving SE across the Glakes) and the thermally direct branch (mid Atlantic Piedmont to Coastal Maine jet segment). Plenty of morning sunshine has allowed sfc based CAPE to grow to around 2500 J/KG across Western PA with a temporary relative min over the Eastern Third of PA. The left exit region of the Glakes Jet max will brush across the NE third to half of the CWA late this afternoon and early this evening, interacting with the approaching sfc cold front/Lake Erie Breeze and accentuating UVVEL for some fast, southeast- moving discrete TSRA (Supercells and mini-bows) capable of producing localized 60-70 mph downburst gusts and a few instances of quarter to golfball sized hail. Strong low level storm relative inflow and slightly curved 0-3 KM hodographs along relatively cool mid level temps and a Wet Bulb Zero level of about 9 KFT AGl supports the threat for large hail. Pertinent parts of the Previous Disc... Deep layer shear of 40-50KTs at the peak could be enough to make some supercells, but mostly clusters. However, we will be under the descending area of the curved jet max at 5H. That is the ingredient which could keep the convection suppressed somewhat. SPC has continued the Day1 Outlook exactly as the old Day2 = most of the CWA is in the MRGL risk area with a SLGT risk barely touching the far eastern two cos. Will continue to mention TS with small hail and gusty winds. The worst of the storms will likely be off to our east. Some lingering SHRA will last until just after sunset in the SE, but it's only worth a 20 PoP for isolated coverage. After the front passes, which will be mid aftn in the N, and early evening in the S, the air will dry out with sfc dewpoints into the 50s by sunrise Friday. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Friday looks like a stellar Independence Day. No risk of any precip, and humidity getting very low during the afternoon. Have strayed from the NBM dewpoints for Fri and Sat aftns, with Friday being the largest deviance. Light N wind and good sunshine Fri. Very dry air just above the sfc in the AM and mixing to ~5kft in the aftn could drop dewpoints into the 40s across the Allegheny Plateau and M50s in the SE. That may not be enough of a move, but will start with that. Maxes on Friday of U70s to M80s are very seasonable, and we'll probably see a few degs of uptick in temps Sat aftn. High pressure will provide a dry time for both days. A little fog will be had in the valleys since it gets close to 50F in the nrn mtns Fri AM, but the dry airmass will work against it. Dewpoints are going to be low enough on Sat AM that there won't be much, if any, fog. Then, the wind turns Swrly, and humidity levels start to creep upward during the long holiday weekend, but no rain. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Compared to previous guidance, today's model runs have slowed down with the arrival of precip associated with a shortwave trough late Sunday. Most of the day looks hot and mostly sunny with highs in the upper 80s. PoPs increase into Monday as the trough arrives. Monday should be the hottest day with L90s SE of the Allegheny Front. Forecast uncertainty increases Tuesday and Wednesday, as several ensemble members show showers/storms lingering as the front slows down, while much of the deterministic guidance has drier air pushing in. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The main focus through the 12Z Friday will be a shortwave that will traverse the region and bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to portions of the area this afternoon. The surface cold front associated with this upper level shortwave will move in during the afternoon and will trigger a few thunderstorms over eastern PA. This cold front will be largely moisture starved; however, given the instability in the eastern portion of PA it is possible isolated to scattered storms may cause some impacts. These thunderstorms will have the best chance of impacting IPT, MDT, and LNS, while areas farther to the west likely remain dry. Confidence still remains low on development and coverage of afternoon convection. Outlook... Fri-Sun...AM fog possible; otherwise VFR. Mon-Tue...Thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Dangelo NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo SHORT TERM...Lambert/Dangelo LONG TERM...Colbert AVIATION...Lambert/Bauco/Bowen
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 159 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 PAZ037-041-042-046-049>053-058-041800- Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder- Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill- 159 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 484 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Severe Thunderstorm Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>036-045-056-057-059-063>066- 041800- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin- Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Southern Clinton-Perry- Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 159 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service State College PA 118 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 PAZ006-011-012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-031900- Potter-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre- Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset- Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan- Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon- Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 118 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS... Scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be developing across the region and moving to the East-Southeast at 30 to 35 mph. The storms will impact the Northern Mountains and Laurel Highlands through 5 pm, and across the Central Mountains and Susquehanna Valley through early this evening. * West to Northwest wind gusts up to 55 MPH. * Hail up to nickel size. * Brief heavy rainfall. If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. The storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from your National Weather Service. Lambert
The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 89 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:29 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked multiple trees down between Lawrenceville and Millerton.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked tree limbs down onto power lines on the 2200 block of Village Road approximately 2 miles east-southeast of Orwigsburg.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked a tree down in Briar Creek.
A severe thunderstorm produced quarter-sized hail approximately 3 miles south-southwest of McAdoo.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked a tree onto a car on State Street in Harrisburg.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1274997, 1274998, 1274999, 1275000, 1275006.