Mid-level shortwave approaching the region, coupled with a low-level warm front, allowed for ample lift across central Pennsylvania during the late afternoon and evening hours of July 16, 2025. 20 range and very little deep-layer shear promoted slow-moving showers and thunderstorms with efficient rainfall rates across much of the area.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
Mid-level shortwave approaching the region, coupled with a low-level warm front, allowed for ample lift across central Pennsylvania during the late afternoon and evening hours of July 16, 2025. Ample moisture in place, with precipitable water values in the 1.80 to 2.20 range and very little deep-layer shear promoted slow-moving showers and thunderstorms with efficient rainfall rates across much of the area. Flooding across the hydrologically sensitive areas of northern Pennsylvania resulted in multiple instances of flash flooding across Potter County, with flooding also observed across the western highlands of Pennsylvania. Ample instability brought upon a secondary thunderstorm risk during the late evening hours, with lightning causing a structural fire in Cambria County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 3:25 PM EST, 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 425 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Elevated risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding this afternoon and evening * Scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rain will remain in the forecast forecast on Thursday; trending drier on Friday * Heat risk builds this afternoon and peaks on Thursday; modest cool down and less humid end the week && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Issued flood watch for flash flooding in two parts for the western and eastern portions of CPA until 10PM and midnight. The latest MPD #708 from WPC highlights the current met watch and emerging flash flood threat very well: Summary...Scattered thunderstorms should increase in coverage through the afternoon atop very sensitive local ground conditions especially in Pennsylvania. Flash flooding is likely - especially later this afternoon and into the early evening. Discussion...Recent radar/satellite imagery depicts a gradual increase in convective coverage especially across northern/northeastern Ohio into southwestern Pennsylvania. The cells in southwestern Pennsylvania are only loosely organized and appear to be tied to 1) increased surface heating/destabilization, 2) ascent from a mid-level shortwave trough currently centered over eastern OH, and 3) confluence on the northeastern extent of a 25kt 850mb jet along the Ohio River. The loose organization of the cells has led to minimal convective training/repeating that has largely held rain rates to less than 1 inch/hr in most areas despite only modest (~15-20 kt) southwesterly steering flow aloft. Flash flood potential is relatively isolated in the short term. Concern exists that with progression through peak heating, convective coverage will increase while spreading eastward across the discussion area, leading to cell mergers, modest upscale growth into clusters, and higher rain rates. Furthermore, the higher rain rates are likely to materialize across very sensitive locales especially across [central] Pennsylvania that have experienced 2+ inches of rain in the past 48 hours. FFG thresholds are relatively low - less than 1 inch/hr areawide and near zero in a few spots. These factors suggest an eventual increase in flash flood potential through the afternoon and early evening hours (extending through 00Z/8p EDT). Scattered instances of flash flooding are likely, and significant impacts may occur where ground conditions are most sensitive. Convection should gradually decrease in coverage and intensity into late tonight. Expect another muggy summer night with lows 65-75F. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... *No change to the SPC severe t-storm outlook for Thursday with slightly higher potential for sporadic damaging wind gusts in the strongest storms *Heat risk peaks Thursday afternoon across south central and southeastern PA with max heat index fcst to reach/exceed 100F in parts of the middle to lower Susquehanna Valley - a heat advisory may be needed in the next 1-2 forecast cycles *Slightly cooler and less humid end to the week with dry wx for most of CPA Previous Discussion Issued: 438 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 On Thursday, model guidance is coming into focus that as a northern stream short-wave (coming through MT this morning) tracks eastward, a surface wave will develop and track north of PA, from the Upper Great Lakes across upstate NY and into northern New England. As this occurs, a surface cool front will approach the Commonwealth from the NW and could impinge on the region by late in the day or during the evening. Daytime heating and some height falls aloft should lead to at least moderately unstable conditions once again. As opposed to today, the environmental flow looks stronger on Thursday (mid-level winds of 30-40 kt) and there also appears to be some drier air aloft to tap into. As a result, the threat of severe weather (damaging winds/hail) looks a little better as compared to today, with the flash flooding risk a bit reduced as compared to today, given somewhat lower precipitable water values with the aforementioned drier air aloft, and also faster cell motions to potentially limit residence time of any heavy downpours over a given location. The other potentially high impact weather issue on Thursday is the heat and humidity for PA's southern valleys, where heat indices could locally approach or exceed 100 degrees. However, due to uncertainty with convective timing and coverage (which could conceivably knock the heat down a bit in some areas), we'll take a wait and see attitude on any future Heat Advisories. On Friday, model guidance has generally trended faster with the passage of the above mentioned cool front, with indications now there that the front could be largely south of the Commonwealth prior to peak heating Friday afternoon. Our southern tier counties may still be close enough to the boundary for at least isolated afternoon convection, however, confidence is increasing that areas near and north of I-80 will see a rain-free day. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Still no real change to the large-scale pattern that has persisted now for a couple of weeks, featuring an expansive summertime upper ridge axis from the southwestern Atlantic across most of the southern U.S., and a more progressive, zonal northern stream belt of westerlies near the international border with Canada. As individual short-wave impulses within the northern stream flow periodically track north of the Commonwealth, they'll bring just enough height falls to steer surface frontal complexes across PA, with convective coverage maximized in the initial warm advection pattern with these waves, and also just ahead of approaching cool fronts, focused mainly during peak heating (afternoon/early evening hours). If individual cool fronts can push far enough south before stalling and/or washing out, we may also squeeze out an occasional day with little to no rainfall. At this early vantage point, it looks like the highest probability for showers and thunderstorms is from late Saturday through Sunday, with perhaps Monday as a mostly rain-free day. Medium-range guidance is also suggesting that the upper ridge may flex its muscle some by the middle of next week, perhaps leading to building heat and humidity by then, after a temporary break from such from late in the weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Late afternoon update. Timing of the main band of showers and storms not bad, some adjustments made this afternoon for isolated storms ahead of the main activity. Earlier discussion below For the 18Z TAF package, went with VCSH all areas, as activity has been forming on the radar screen the last few hours. Expect more widespread activity later this afternoon, so used a TEMPO group for thunder. For the overnight period, went with lower conditions and showers. The main upper level wave moves east of the area Thursday morning, so expect winds to shift more to the west and become gusty. Still some chc of lower clouds and showers up to 18Z. Thus used VCSH. Much of the area could be mainly hot but rain free and VFR by early afternoon on Thursday. The cold front will be well behind anything on Thursday, the front will be more of a feature later Thursday night. Outlook... Fri-Sat...Mainly dry. Sun...Showers and storms likely. Mon...Still a chc of a shower or storm. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for PAZ010>012- 017>019-024>027-033>036-045. Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ028-041-042-046- 049>053-056>059-063>066. && SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Jurewicz/Steinbugl LONG TERM...Jurewicz/Steinbugl AVIATION...Martin
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 1225 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 PAZ028-042-046-049>053-171630- Juniata-Sullivan-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia- 1225 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Isolated strong to locally damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Isolated strong to locally damaging wind gusts are possible Thursday afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ018-019-024>027-033-034-045-171630- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin- Somerset-Bedford-Southern Clinton- 1225 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Isolated strong to locally damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Isolated strong to locally damaging wind gusts are possible Thursday afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ056>059-063>066-171630- Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 1225 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Isolated strong to locally damaging wind gusts are possible late this afternoon and evening. Heat index values near 100 degrees will increase the risk of heat related illnesses and impacts including health systems and heat sensitive industries. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Heat index values may exceed 100 degrees and result in heat related illnesses and impacts to health systems and heat sensitive industries. Isolated strong to locally damaging wind gusts are possible Thursday afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ035-036-171630- Fulton-Franklin- 1225 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Isolated strong to locally damaging wind gusts are possible late this afternoon and evening. Heat index values near 100 degrees will increase the risk of heat related illnesses and impacts including health systems and heat sensitive industries. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Heat index values may exceed 100 degrees and result in heat related illnesses and impacts to health systems and heat sensitive industries. Isolated strong to locally damaging wind gusts are possible Thursday afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ041-171630- Northern Lycoming- 1225 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Isolated strong to locally damaging wind gusts are possible late this afternoon and evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ010>012-017-171630- Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- 1225 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Isolated strong to locally damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ004>006-037-171630- Warren-McKean-Potter-Tioga- 1225 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Isolated strong to locally damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall are possible this afternoon and evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. MRS
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service State College PA 253 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 PAZ033-034-162000- Somerset-Bedford- 253 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOMERSET AND BEDFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 4PM... Strong thunderstorms moving across the area will create * Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph * Very heavy rainfall with rates up to 1 inch per hour If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. MRS
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service State College PA 258 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 PAZ018-019-162000- Northern Centre-Southern Centre- 258 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRE COUNTY THROUGH 4PM... Strong thunderstorms moving across the area will create * Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph * Very heavy rainfall with rates up to 1 inch per hour If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. MRS
The State College radar (KCCX), 88 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:29 UTC.
4 flood, 2 flash flood, 1 lightning, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor flooding reported along New Granada Highway in Wells Twp.
Water over the roadway at the Laurel Avenue underpass and on Bridge Street in Johnstown.
Water was reported to be over the roadway on Seanor Road in Hollsopple.
Small bridge washed out on Cove Road near the Wells Tannery Community Park.
Flash flooding led to water over the roadway on Route 244 near Genesee.
Flash flooding pushed water across Route 244 near Oswayo.
Lightning struck a residence on the 500 block of East Horner Street in Ebensburg, causing a fire. No injuries reported.
A severe thunderstorm, producing downburst winds estimated near 60 mph, produced crop damage on the 1500 block of Spruce Road southwest of Shrewsbury.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1279128, 1279134, 1279137, 1279138, 1278805, 1278810, 1276615, 1279885.