High Wind in Oregon, March 19, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1049 AM PDT Wed Mar 19 2025

...New Aviation Section...

.AVIATION (12Z TAFs)...

A strong front will move through the region today bringing breezy
to gusty winds and precipitation to all terminals. This will
result in predominately MVFR conditions, but we may need to
consider IFR conditions overnight into Thursday morning. Current
guidance suggests around a 10-20% chance for IFR visibility and/or
ceilings. Models might not be handling the low level moisture
from precipitation today very well, so we may have to reevaluate
this in subsequent TAFs. For now, confidence was higher for a
predominately MVFR forecast. Otherwise, wind speeds will pick up
this afternoon and early evening in association with the front.

-Guerrero

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 917 AM PDT Wed Mar 19 2025/

DISCUSSION...Satellite image shows the cold front still offshore.
Observations along the coast show light to occasionally moderate
southeast winds. Stronger winds are being observed over the higher
terrain along the coastal mountains in southwest Oregon. We still
expect winds to increase along the coast, but they are not expected
to be as strong as once though. Part of the reason is the pressure
gradient are well below the range where we would expect high winds
at the coast. For example, the pressure gradient between Arcata and
North Bend peaks out around 6.2 mb late this afternoon which is
right around the time the front is expected to reach the coast.

Therefore it's likely the strong winds at the coast will be confined
to the headlands and exposed areas along highway 101 from about Gold
Beach to Cape Blanco for about a 3-6 hour period late this morning
until late this afternoon. The winds will quickly shift southwest
and diminish early this evening.

Even though the winds along the coast won't be as strong, it still
looks like moderate to strong winds will materialize in the Shasta
Valley into early this evening, with moderate winds likely in the
south end of the Rogue Valley from about Talent to Ashland and
Portions of the eastside.

The bulk of the precipitation along and just ahead of the front
will be from late this afternoon into early this evening and amounts
were adjusted lower for this afternoon, and adjusted higher for this
evening. Not much in the way of precipitation is expected in a post
frontal environment which is typical late this evening and overnight
tonight.

Updates to the forecast have been made to reflect the above
thinking. -Petrucelli

AVIATION...19/12Z TAFs...LIFR in the Umpqua Valley, including
Roseburg, is the current exception to VFR. Upper level clouds are
increasing ahead of a very strong front that will weaken slightly as
it moves inland late today into tonight. Southerly winds will
increase this morning, and mix out the Umpqua Valley stratus.

Strong, gusty winds today will peak in the afternoon and early
evening. Gusts of 25 to 35 kt are expected to affect area terminals.
Areas along the coast, may see a period of stronger gusts up to 60
mph as this front pushes onshore.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the coastal waters during
the afternoon and evening, particularly from around 21-03Z.
Inland, some areas may also see strong, gusty winds up to 60 mph
with best chances in the Shasta Valley, including near Montague.
MVFR conditions will develop along the coast late this afternoon as
rain moves onshore. Then, areas of MVFR and local IFR will spread
inland early this evening. Widespread mountain obscurations are
likely from late afternoon into tonight. -DW

MARINE...Updated 900 AM Wednesday, March 19, 2025...South winds
will build to a peak for about a 3-6 hour period late this morning
into this afternoon ahead of a very strong front. Steep seas
become very steep this morning with gale to storm force winds
developing. The storm force winds are expected for areas within 30
nm of shore while gales are expected to continue beyond 30 nm
from shore. Guidance suggest sustained winds will be in the high
gale range with storm force gusts for about a 3-6 hour period
late this morning and afternoon. We'll leave the Storm Warning
out, but most hours were just looking at high end gales. 500mb
temperatures close to -30 C will move into the waters late this
afternoon and early this evening, therefore isolated thunderstorms
are possible.

Winds ease early this evening, though very steep seas will
continue into Thursday morning. Steep seas and Advisory strength
southerly winds follow Thursday, at least into Friday night with
another weaker but slower moving front. The strongest winds and
steepest seas will likely occur north of Cape Blanco.

Swell dominated seas are forecast to nudge slightly higher Saturday,
then lower on Sunday. A ridge with near shore thermal trough
develops later Sunday with dry weather and winds shifting to the
north. This may produce steep seas late Monday into Tuesday.
-DW/Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT
     Thursday for ORZ027-028.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ021-022.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ026-029>031.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT
     Thursday for CAZ080.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ081.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Storm Warning until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-
     376.

     Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM PDT
     Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&