Wildfire in Oregon, June 20 to 27, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
200 PM PDT Fri Jun 20 2025

.DISCUSSION...Satellite image shows a strong upper low for this time
of the year moving into the area. The combination of a cold air mass
aloft moving overhead and max heating during the day will result in
isolated storms into early this evening. So far, no lightning
strikes have been observed in our area, but that will change as we
get into the nax heating of the day (which typically is from mid to
late afternoon into eatly evening).

Guidance shows areas along and west of the Cascades will have the
best chance of isolated storms into early this evening. Any isolated
storms will end this evening with showers lingering through the
overnight hours. Although, they will tend to diminish some during
the overnight hours. Despite a colder air mass moving overhead,
cloud cover will be plentyful with little breaks in the cloud cover.
This will keep temperatures from falling off too quickly, but a few
locations east of the Cascades that get periods of brief clearing
could get close to freezing towarrds daybreak Saturday.

Saturday will feel more like late March and early April with
isolated to scattered showers and afternoon temperatures averaging
around 20 degrees below normal! Showers Saturday morning will tend
for be more isolated, then the general consensus is for showers to
increase in the afternoon and mainly concentrated along and west of
the Cascades. Several of the high res CAMS (convective allowing
models) showing simulated radar returns supports this thinking in
addition to the operational models.

Showers will linger into Saturday evening, then gradually
diminishing overnight as the upper trough moves east and we get on
the backside of the upper low with a drier northerly flow. The
general consensus suggest ample cloud cover will remain, especially
along and east of the Cascades. There could be brief periods of
clearing since were not expecting overcast skies, but like tonight,
this should slow down the amount of cooling during the overnight
period, with a few locations east of the Cascades getting towards
freezing for an hour ot two towards daybreak Sunday.

Sunday, any showers will be isolated and ending towards mid morning
with dry weather likely for the afternoon. Clouds will also
gradually diminish with partly cloudy skies by the afternoon.
Afternoon temperature Sunday will rebound and will be warmer for the
interior.

Next week is expected to be dry with much warmer afternoon
temperatures for the interior. -Petrucelli

&&

.AVIATION...20/18Z TAFs...MVFR to low VFR is widespread at the coast
this morning as showers move into the area. Showers will spread
inland this morning and afternoon. Expect widespread showers, with
areas of MVFR, to develop for areas from the Cascades west today,
where there can also be isolated thunderstorms. East of the Cascades
and across northern California, expect mainly VFR with local MVFR in
showers. Gusty winds are likely today, with strongest winds this
afternoon east of the Cascades (peak gusts of 20-30kt). Thunderstorm
chances diminish this evening, but showers are likely to continue
with areas of MVFR and terrain obscuration Friday night into
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE....Updated 200 PM Friday, June 20, 2025...Low pressure will
bring unseasonably cool air, numerous showers and also isolated
thunderstorms, especially north of Cape Blanco, into this evening.
Light to occasionaly moderate west to northwest winds will continue
into tonight.

Moderate west winds and fresh swell dominated seas are expected for
the outer waters Saturday, then migrating into the inner waters late
Saurday afternoon through Sunday afternoon resulting in low end
Small Craft conditions. Cool, showery, unsettled weather continues
Saturday. A thermal trough returns Sunday through Monday with north
winds and steep seas likely south of Cape Blanco. -Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Saturday to 5
     PM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&