Increased runoff and some snowmelt from the higher elevations around the southern John Day Basin resulted in rising river levels on the John Day river between John Day and Prairie City.
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The episode as NWS PDT wrote it up.
Increased runoff and some snowmelt from the higher elevations around the southern John Day Basin resulted in rising river levels on the John Day river between John Day and Prairie City.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Pendleton, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 3, 2:34 PM PST, 4 hours 26 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
234 PM PST Fri Jan 3 2025
.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...
Bottom Line Up Front
1. Mountains snow continues through Monday
2. Temperatures trending a bit warmer through Sunday
Current radar shows the majority of the precipitation to be slowly
moving northward out of the area with some lingering showers over
the mountains. This system has brought some decent totals across the
region varying from 0.11 inches to near 0.20 inches and still
counting. There will a brief reprieve between systems today before
another round of precipitation will cross the region tonight.
Models are in firm agreement with the surface warm front making its
way northeastward across the region. Once it passes over the region,
a short window of reprieve will arrive (mostly for the lower
elevations) while light lingering snow showers remain over the
mountains. Models then show another system hot on the heels of the
last one whipping through this evening bringing yet another round of
precipitation to the mountains. QPF amounts along the OR Cascade
Crests are relatively high with 50-70% of the raw ensembles in
agreement that Santiam Pass will receive near 8 inches with higher
amounts along the crests staring this evening and persisting through
Sunday. Models then show the system to continue shifting eastward
bringing increased chances of precipitation along the WA Cascades
later in Saturday morning. QPF totals also begin to increase and 40-
60% of the raw ensembles show Snoqualmie seeing 2-4 inches with
higher totals along the crests. While the Blues at this time are not
seeing advisory level snowfall amounts, we must mention that over
70% of the raw ensembles show the I-84 corridor over the Blues will
bee 1-1.5 inches of snow accumulation Saturday. A winter Weather
Advisory has been issued for the OR Cascades above 4000 feet
starting 10 PM tonight and another Winter Weather Advisory has been
issued for the WA Cascades beginning 10 AM Saturday. As for the
lower elevations, light rain will persist through the period with 80-
100% probabilities of 0.05-0.2 inches if rain across the lower
elevations tonight through Saturday. Models show bu Sunday some
westerly flow will form over the region allowing precipitation to
remain locked along the Cascades while rain shadowing the Basin.
Precipitation amounts on Sunday drop to below 0.10 for central/north
central OR and the foothills of the Blues, while the Basin will see
less than 0.05 inches with over 80% probabilities.
With the warm front moving across and the warm air advection,
temperatures across the region will be a bit above normal. EFI is
signaling above average daytime temperatures with models and based
on climatology of the region, temperatures are 5 to 7 degrees above
normal. With 80-100% of the raw ensembles in agreement temperatures
will be between 40-45 degrees across the John Day and Columbia
Basins, foothills and central OR. Bennese/90
.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...
Key Messages:
1. Rain and mountain snow chances Monday morning/afternoon.
2. Near to below normal temperatures through the period.
3. Rain and mountain snow chances return Friday
The extended period is characterized by a quickly passing shortwave
Monday followed an upper level ridge that builds offshore and
lingers through Friday afternoon. This will bring a drier period
across the area through much of the week, with above normal high
temperatures anticipated. There may also be a returning threat of
fog or freezing fog across the Basin, foothills, and east slopes of
the Cascades as high pressure will be dominant and lead to sinking
air and cold pooling. The fog and freezing fog threat are expected
to be the only concerns in the long-term that would warrant any
highlights. The initial system on Monday will bring rain across much
of the Basin through the morning before drying through the afternoon
and confining precipitation along the Blue Mountains and Oregon
Cascades until the evening. The system will be passing across our
area from the northwest to southeast, allowing high pressure to
follow closely behind the departing system. Skies will clear as a
result, dropping Tuesday morning low temperatures 5 to 10 degrees
from Monday morning - which is a result from efficient radiational
cooling. Rain amounts on Monday morning will be lacking, with only a
trace to 0.03" expected across the Lower Columbia Basin, Central
Oregon, and the Blue Mountain foothills. An inch of snowfall, at
most, is expected across the Cascade and Blue Mountains as snow
levels hover between 3500-4500 feet. Confidence in these rain and
snow amounts is moderate (60%) as 51% of ensemble clusters highlight
similar rain totals or slightly higher, with the remaining 49%
hinting at slightly less precipitation amounts.
Northwest flow aloft on Monday will lead to cooler high temperatures
reaching into the low to mid 40s across the Lower Columbia Basin,
Central Oregon, Blue Mountain foothills, Gorge, and the
Yakima/Kittitas Valleys. Flow will be briefly from the west on
Tuesday before shifting from the north on Wednesday and Thursday,
leading to highs dropping 1-2 degrees each day. The upper level
ridge builds on Thursday as north flow aloft enhances to bring high
temperatures down into the mid to upper 30s across the Lower
Columbia Basin, Blue Mountain foothills, and the Yakima/Kittitas
Valley, with low to mid-40s expected over Central Oregon. An upper
level shortwave weakens the ridge and moves along the the
US/Canadian border. This will help to warm high temperatures up 2-3
degrees from Thursday as flow aloft become more from the west due to
the passing shortwave.
The upper level shortwave on Friday will bring a chance for mountain
snowfall and lower elevation rain, primarily along the foothills.
Lower elevations of the Columbia Basin, Central Oregon, and the
Yakima/Kittitas Valleys look to stay dry. Ensembles are in fairly
good agreement with the flattening ridge Thursday as the shortwave
passes on Friday, but there are differences in how much the ridge
suppresses which correlates to the amount of precipitation expected
(stronger ridge = less rainfall/precipitation). 69% of ensembles
suggests a slightly wetter scenario than the current forecast as the
ridge is fairly well suppressed. Thus, there is good confidence (60-
80%) in the current long-term forecast of drier and more calm
period. 75
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...Varied conditions currently experienced at
all sites, with VFR at KDLS, MVFR at KYKM/KPSC, IFR at KRDM, and
LIFR at KPDT/KBDN/KALW due to reduced ceilings BKN/OVC002-004. This
is in response to the approaching system that will pass to our south
through the remainder of the day, leading to light rain lingering
across our northern terminals through the afternoon and early
evening. The only site that is expected to experience light snow
will be KYKM, leading to IFR/MVFR conditions continuing through this
evening due to visibilities of between 1-3SM. A ceiling of OVC010-
020 will be widespread through the afternoon, with little
improvement overnight. Upper level ridging will move into the area,
improving conditions late in the period. 75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 31 44 38 48 / 70 20 60 20
ALW 34 46 40 48 / 90 30 70 50
PSC 33 44 39 47 / 50 10 50 10
YKM 28 38 31 42 / 30 10 30 10
HRI 33 44 39 48 / 60 20 60 10
ELN 27 37 30 41 / 40 20 40 10
RDM 28 43 33 46 / 40 30 20 30
LGD 31 43 35 44 / 90 30 70 60
GCD 28 41 35 45 / 90 50 70 40
DLS 34 42 39 46 / 30 60 70 40
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST
Sunday for ORZ509.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM PST Sunday
for WAZ522.
&&
SHORT TERM...90
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Grant County Emergency Manager reported high water over the US Route 26 at milepost 173 between John Day and Prairie City.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, January 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1239550.