Lake-Effect Snow and Winter Weather in Ohio, January 3 to 4, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1238 AM EST Fri Jan 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move east through the Ohio Valley tonight
into Friday morning, extending a cold front south across the
region. A trough will then linger across the Lower Great Lakes
into Sunday. A stronger low pressure system will move east
across the Lower Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
9:27 PM EST Update...

Most of the forecast remains valid, including for the upcoming
synoptic snowfall overnight tonight into Friday morning.
However, did decrease lake-effect snow-related POP's through
midnight tonight and decreased our snowfall forecast to 1" or
less for the 7 PM Thurs to 1 AM EST Fri time period to account
for the ongoing lull in lake-effect snow (LES). Still expect an
uptick in LES coverage and intensity to begin shortly after
midnight tonight. See discussions below for further details.

7:27 PM EST Update...

Forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model
guidance. No changes appeared necessary. Lake-effect snow (LES)
intensity has decreased significantly over/downwind of Lake Erie
due to a decrease in synoptic moisture and increase in vertical
wind shear, especially directional shear, in the low-level
atmospheric column. These negative factors have caused lake-
induced CAPE to decrease and lake-induced equilibrium levels
(EL's) to plummet to near 5kft above Lake Erie. However, after
approximately midnight tonight through daybreak Friday morning,
expect lake-induced CAPE to increase and lake-induced EL's to
rebound to near 8kft above Lake Erie as synoptic moisture
increases and vertical wind shear decreases considerably in the
low-level atmospheric column. Thus, LES is expected to
re-intensify and fall moderately at times since model soundings
indicate the potential for moderately-strong/maximized ascent
to be collocated with a lake-effect cloud temperature of about
-10C, below a cloudy DGZ at least 0.5 km thick. LES is expected
to stream generally E'ward or ESE'ward and impact the primary
snowbelt and vicinity through daybreak Friday as mean low- level
flow varies between W'erly and WNW'erly. Please see discussion
below for further details.

Previous Discussion...

An active weather pattern is in store for the near term period
with another round of heavier lake effect snow set to return
behind a cold front by Friday and into the weekend with
primarily northwest flow expected. In this package, upgraded a
portion of the Winter Storm Watch (Cuyahoga/Summit/Portage) to
Lake Effect Snow Warnings, with corresponding adjacent Winter
Weather Advisories (Lorain/Medina/Stark/Mahoning/Trumbull). Less
confident in snow totals for Summit/Portage, although do think
there will be a combination of impacts and totals, particularly
in the northern portions of the counties, to warrant issuance of
Lake Effect Snow Warnings.

For the rest of today and tonight, lake effect snow will
continue to persist across the primary snowbelt east of
Cleveland. Recent satellite and surface observations indicate
that the most organized lake effect snow remains confined to
Erie County, PA this afternoon with snowfall rates of 1 to 2
inches per hour. The current pattern favors lake effect snow to
persist tonight into Friday morning, though with perhaps
becoming gradually less intense. Attention then turns towards
the southern half of our area tonight into Friday morning where
a fast-moving low pressure system, aided by strong low-level
frontogenesis, will bring a fresh 1 to 2 inches of snow
generally along and south of the US-30 corridor. This synoptic
snow will primarily be light, but brief bursts of moderate snow
are expected as the low-level frontogenesis allows moderately-
strong and maximized ascent to be collocated with a cloudy DGZ
about 1 km thick. Roads may briefly become slippery and could
impact the Friday morning commute.

Behind this low pressure system, a mid-level trough axis will
dive south across the Great Lakes, ushering in a colder air mass
and steepening low and mid-level lapse rates. Will need to
monitor areas outside of current headlines for potential snow
squalls Friday morning and afternoon with a favorable
environment in place. Snow squalls can result in reduced
visibilities of a quarter mile or less and quickly coat area
roadways. Behind this trough axis, mid-level lapse rates will
steepen, resulting in lake-induced equilibrium levels to rise
to over 10kft by Friday afternoon, resulting in heavy lake
effect snow bands, capable of producing rates of 1 to 2 inches
per hour. The coldest portion of the air mass will arrive Friday
night into Saturday morning, with 850 mb temperatures falling
to around -18 degrees C coinciding with primarily northwest
boundary layer flow.

Snowfall amounts will vary widely depending on where specific
bands develop and can become established. This will also be a
fairly long-duration event (persisting into Sunday) with
occasional "lulls" in the heavier snow expected. The highest
snowfall totals of 1 to 1.5 feet will likely be found across
portions of southern Lake, northern Geauga and inland Erie
County (PA) with isolated higher spots up to 2 feet possible,
particularly near the PA/NY border. Elsewhere in the warning
areas, totals will likely near the 1-foot mark, with lesser
amounts in the adjacent Advisory areas.

Net CAA at the surface and aloft will impact our region through
Friday night. Overnight lows are expected to reach mainly the
lower to mid 20's around daybreak Friday. Abundant cloud cover
and the aforementioned CAA will greatly limit daytime warming on
Friday. Afternoon highs are expected to reach the mid 20's to
lower 30's. Friday night's lows are expected to reach mainly the
15F to 20F range around daybreak Saturday. These low temperatures
and breezy winds are expected to yield minimum wind chills near
0F to 10F. The coldest wind chills are expected inland from
~38F Lake Erie, especially in interior NW PA and in Mid OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Lake effect snow will be ongoing Saturday, although there will
likely be a slow downward trend in snowfall intensity as
inversion heights lower to 8kft-10kft. Bands of snow will begin
to lift north as flow backs to the west by Saturday afternoon
with the majority of the snow focusing into the primary snowbelt
by Saturday night. By that point, dry air will begin filtering
into the region as a ridge begins to build in from the west so
generally expect a downward trend in snowfall rates/organization
late Saturday into early Sunday. Any remaining lake effect snow
showers should be confined to NW PA and perhaps far NE OH by
Sunday afternoon as the best lift exits to the east and upstream
moisture becomes cut off.

Snowfall totals for this event are discussed in detail in the near
term discussion above since the heaviest snowfall rates will occur
before the short term period, but impacts will continue well into
Saturday. In addition to potential for moderate to locally heavy
snowfall rates in more intense bands of snow, northwest wind gusts
to 25 to 35 mph will result in areas of blowing snow which will
produce reduced visibility and possibly slick travel in falling and
fallen snow. Winter Weather Advisories in the secondary snowbelt
will end once snow lifts north Saturday afternoon and Lake Effect
Snow Warnings will gradually taper off from west to east Saturday
night through Sunday

Locations outside of the snowbelt could receive some light snow
showers off of Lake Michigan (primarily southwestern zones), but
otherwise impactful precipitation is not expected through the
daytime hours Sunday. The breezy winds will also result in single
digit wind chills areawide Saturday into early Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
On Sunday night, an upper trough or low will traverse across the
Middle Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio/Tennessee valleys with a
surface low deepening over the Ohio Valley and moving east into
Monday. The forecast track of the low has trended northward today
which has resulted in higher QPF/snowfall totals across southern
zones. As of now, the forecast has 2 to 5 inches of snow
accumulation along and south of U.S. Route 30 Sunday night through
Monday with a swath of 7+ inches just to the south of the local
area. Will need to closely monitor this system in the upcoming
hours/days; Winter Weather Advisories may be needed in the southern
reaches of the CWA based on the current forecast, but even a slight
northward shift in the low/QPF could result in significantly higher
snow amounts and impacts.

Northwest flow will develop on the back side of the low and lake
effect snow will likely develop across the snowbelt Monday night
through the remainder of the long term period. The lake effect setup
doesn't look particularly impressive early on, but there may be an
uptick in coverage/intensity as a reinforcing trough/cold front
pushes southeast across the area on Wednesday.

Temperatures remain cold through mid to late week with highs in the
20s expected each day. Thursday may be the coldest day of the week
and highs might struggle to break 20 degrees in southern zones. Lows
will be in the teens with single digits possible by Wednesday
night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Complicated aviation weather scenario with multiple things going
on at once leading to a lot of snow in the forecast. Starting in
the western terminals, a surface low followed by an upper level
wave is bringing in larger scale light snow, but even light in
nature should bring IFR visibilities into play. Most terminals
will be affected by this at some point, mainly on the front end
of the TAF. In the meantime, lake effect with transient bands of
snow will begin again later in the overnight period, along with
cold air advection snow showers in during the rest of the
forecast for the eastern terminals. The result is TAFs that
contain a lot of light snow in the forecast lines with light
accumulations except where lake effect bands focus, likely
affecting ERI, and to some degree YNG the most. Some AMDs or
better focused TEMPO groups might be needed for the periodic
nature of the snow showers as we get into the daylight hours
today.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected in periodic snow and low ceilings
through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Went ahead and expanded the Small Craft Advisory for the
nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Vermilion as winds increase
into the 20-25 knot range Friday afternoon and briefly up to 30
knots on Friday night. The Small Craft Advisory is in effect
through 4 PM Saturday.

Previous discussion...
West winds will gradually diminish from 20 to 30 knots this evening
to 15 to 20 knots late tonight/early Friday morning, however waves
will likely remain elevated in the central and eastern basins during
the brief lull. Winds become more northwesterly and increase to 20
to 30 knots by Friday afternoon before backing to the west by
Saturday afternoon. Winds may briefly exceed 30 knots and possible
approach gales in the central and eastern basins Friday night into
early Saturday so will need to continue to monitor forecast trends.
Winds finally diminish as a ridge builds into the region Sunday.

Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Sunday from Vermilion
east and expect additional Small Craft Advisories to be issued from
Vermilion and nearshore zones west starting as early as late Friday
morning. Headlines should end once winds diminish and waves subside
Sunday afternoon, but additional Small Craft Advisories will likely
be needed as northeast winds increase to 15 to 25 knots Monday.

A cold weather pattern will persist through at least early next week
which will likely result in at least patchy ice growth primarily in
the western basin and along the immediate lakeshore. Light to
moderate freezing spray is likely late Friday through the
weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EST
     Saturday for OHZ010-020-023-032-033.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
     Saturday for OHZ011-021-022.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for OHZ012>014-
     089.
PA...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 PM EST Sunday for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 4 PM EST Saturday for
     LEZ142>144.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for LEZ145>149.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/Kahn
SHORT TERM...Maines
LONG TERM...Maines
AVIATION...26
MARINE...KEC/Maines

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
243 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>009-018-019-031945-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Seneca-Huron-
243 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central Ohio
and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ012>014-089-031945-
Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Ashtabula Lakeshore-
243 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Effect Snow Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Effect Snow Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ010-020-023-033-031945-
Lorain-Medina-Trumbull-Mahoning-
243 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio and
northeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ011-021-022-031945-
Cuyahoga-Summit-Portage-
243 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Effect Snow Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ001>003-031945-
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-Crawford-
243 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Effect Snow Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Effect Snow Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ017-027>031-036>038-047-031945-
Hancock-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-
Knox-
243 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A system will cross the Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday which
could result in several inches of wet snow, especially along and
south of the US-30 corridor.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ032-031945-
Stark-
243 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

A system will cross the Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday which
could result in several inches of wet snow, especially along and
south of the US-30 corridor.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
830 PM EST Thu Jan 02 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     Snow             2 E Edinboro            41.87N  80.08W
01/02/2025  M3.9 inch        Erie               PA   Trained Spotter

            12-hour snowfall.

0715 PM     Snow             4 SE Harpersfield       41.72N  80.90W
01/02/2025  M2.3 inch        Ashtabula          OH   Trained Spotter

            12-hour snowfall.

0730 PM     Snow             1 WNW Union City        41.90N  79.85W
01/02/2025  M3.2 inch        Erie               PA   Trained Spotter

            12-hour snowfall.

&&

Event Number CLE2500061
Event Number CLE2500062
Event Number CLE2500063

Clark

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
916 PM EST Thu Jan 02 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     Snow             1 NW Harborcreek        42.18N  79.98W
01/02/2025  M2.8 inch        Erie               PA   Trained Spotter

            12-hour snowfall.

0800 PM     Snow             4 S Wesleyville         42.08N  80.01W
01/02/2025  M5.3 inch        Erie               PA   Trained Spotter

            12-hour snowfall.

0830 PM     Snow             2 ESE Monroe Center     41.83N  80.53W
01/02/2025  M2.8 inch        Ashtabula          OH   Trained Spotter

            12-hour snowfall.

0836 PM     Snow             Northwest Harborcreek   42.15N  79.99W
01/02/2025  M3.3 inch        Erie               PA   Trained Spotter

            12-hour snowfall.

&&

Event Number CLE2500064
Event Number CLE2500065
Event Number CLE2500066
Event Number CLE2500067

Clark