Drought in Oklahoma, November 1 to 30, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1255 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

  - A cold front brings a low chance for light rain showers and
    cooler temperatures on Saturday.

  - Freeze Watch across portions of northern, central and southern
    Oklahoma from 2 AM to 7 AM Sunday morning.

  - Above-average temperatures and dry conditions returning from
    Sunday onward into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Cooler weather, with low chances for light rain/sprinkles, will
greet us as we begin November 2025. Early morning water vapor
imagery captures a southward-advancing upper low across portions
of the Central Plains. An attendant cold front continues to
advance southward across northern Oklahoma at this hour.

Weak ascent atop the front will offer low chances for light rain
showers over the coming hours this morning, mainly along and
south/east of a line from Vernon, TX to Cherokee, OK. Evening RAOBs
from across the region depicted a pronounced dry layer below
cloud base such that most generated precipitation will likely
evaporate before reaching the surface. As such, most locations
will likely remain dry this morning, and any areas of rain will
move south and east of the forecast area towards midday.

Cooler temperatures and clearing skies will be left in the wake of
the front by this afternoon and evening. Portions of northern
Oklahoma may remain in the 50s during this time (despite clearing
skies), with 60s forecast across southern Oklahoma and western-north
Texas.

Ungar

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Saturday night into the predawn hours of Sunday morning will offer
another chance for a widespread fall freeze across portions of
Oklahoma. While many locations saw their first freeze of the
fall/winter on Thursday morning, the potential for ambient
temperatures in the upper-20s towards sunrise, along with being a
few days prior to the average first freeze date, promotes the need
for another round of freeze headlines. The previous Freeze Watch
has even been expanded further across central and southern
Oklahoma due to these factors.

After a chilly start, Sunday will be a splendid day of fall
weather. The previous upper low will continue to dive across the
southeast U.S., leaving an evolving upper ridge in its wake. The
arrival of a warmer low-level airmass and re-establishing
southerly flow will help in warming daytime temperatures towards
the upper-60s to low-70s (west & south). Clear skies will
accompany these fall-like temperatures. Enjoy!

Monday looks to be even warmer across the region, as the upper ridge
spreads further east. Portions of the Red River Valley may even warm
into the low-80s ahead of a weak (dry) front across the northern
Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

The bulk of next week returns us towards unseasonable warmth and
mostly dry conditions. The background synoptic regime looks to
generally transition from quasi-zonal flow towards a more dominant
western CONUS ridge with time. While potential for weak (mainly dry)
frontal intrusions exists, mainly during the midweek, a pronounced
southerly flow regime and advecting warm airmasses from higher
western terrain will likely promote +10-25 degree daytime
temperature departures throughout this period. This includes
potential for multiple days with highs in the 80s across southern
portions of the forecast area.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025

VFR conditions will continue with broken to overcast mid to high
level clouds (10,000 to 25,000 ft), which will clear from
northwest to southeast tomorrow.

There remains a low chance of showers tonight into tomorrow
morning, but the chance of impacting a terminal is too low to
include in the TAFs with most of the activity likely being virga.

Winds will shift from the east/southeast to the north/northeast
as a cold front moves through tonight. These winds will become
light and variable toward the end  of the TAF period.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  58  36  65  47 /  20   0   0   0
Hobart OK         63  34  71  45 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  66  38  71  46 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           56  32  70  41 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     56  32  64  43 /  10   0   0   0
Durant OK         65  39  66  45 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
     OKZ006>008-011>013-017>020-023>032-040>042.

TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...10