A southwesterly low level jet developed over the Southern Plains into the Ozarks during the early morning hours of May 15th, ahead of a broad upper level trough well to the north across Kansas/Nebraska into Missouri. A weak cool front extended near the base of the trough over Western and Central Oklahoma, with sufficient elevated instability ahead of the trough coupled with subtle forcing aloft…
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SHV wrote it up.
A southwesterly low level jet developed over the Southern Plains into the Ozarks during the early morning hours of May 15th, ahead of a broad upper level trough well to the north across Kansas/Nebraska into Missouri. A weak cool front extended near the base of the trough over Western and Central Oklahoma, with sufficient elevated instability ahead of the trough coupled with subtle forcing aloft contributing to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms well southeast of the front over portions of extreme Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and adjacent sections of Southwest Arkansas along the low level jet axis. One isolated thunderstorm did briefly become severe over Northern McCurtain County Oklahoma, producing large hail several miles southwest of Hochatown.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Shreveport, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 15, 5:48 AM CST, 22 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 648 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday Night) Issued at 415 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025 The early morning water vapor imagery indicates that upper ridging continues to expand NE over the Mid MS Valley, with elevated cigs still spilling E through and atop this ridge. Low stratus has again developed over portions of SE TX and much of S/Cntrl LA, and should make a little more progress N this morning especially by and after daybreak, before lifting by mid and late morning. Meanwhile, a weak cool front continues to make Ewd progress across Wrn and Cntrl OK, reinforced by the base of upper trough now ejecting NE through Nrn KS/Ern NE. As this trough lifts NE and closes off over the Upper Midwest later today, the attendant frontal bndry will become stationary over the Ozarks into Ern OK and portions of N TX, just NW of the region. Despite the presence of a 50kt SWrly LLJ sampled by the KSHV VAD, the low level moisture profile will remain somewhat shallow today but gradually begin to deepen through the afternoon ahead of the front. Capping in VC of the front remains progged to hold through much of the afternoon, but could weaken enough for isolated convection to develop from portions of NE TX into SE OK/Wrn AR. The main question though is whether or not the cap can weaken sufficiently enough with the marginal deep lyr forcing for isolated deep (strong to severe convection) to develop given the strong deep lyr shear and sfc/layered instability that will develop. The NBM has finally jumped on board with slight chance pops NW of the I-30 corridor this afternoon, but did expand pops farther SSW a bit given some the CAM consensus which may linger into the evening. But again, the severe threat remains conditional over this area given the cap strength, weak overall forcing, and lack of deep lyr moisture along the front. Forcing should be a bit better later tonight over Wrn and Cntrl AR closer to the front, before it begins to lift back N and wash out by daybreak Friday. Even with the mostly elevated cigs this afternoon and S winds, max temps today should be comparable to what what observed Wednesday, generally climbing to near 90/lower 90s, shy of the daily records. The pressure gradient will remain sufficient tonight such that low stratus development should occur/advect farther N over the region overnight, with mixing inhibiting temps from falling much below the lower/mid 70s. Upper ridging will be shunted farther E into the Virginias and the Ern Gulf Coast region, with the Upper Midwest closed low maintaining a SWrly LLJ over the Srn Plains/Ozarks. Meanwhile, the next shortwave rounding the base of the closed low late tonight off the Cntrl Rockies into NE/KS will help to reinforce another weak cool front E through OK/N TX Friday, which will slow upon entering NCntrl AR/SE OK along the Middle Red River Valley. The low level moisture profile should be more sufficient along/just ahead of this front, with H925-850 theta-e ridging evident especially during peak heating into the evening. Forcing aloft should be a bit more sufficient as the aforementioned shortwave trough along the base of the closed low translates E through the Ozarks into the MS Valley Friday evening, which should erode capping enough for scattered convection to develop late in the afternoon and especially during the evening. In fact, the 06Z run of the HRRR has become more robust in convection development along the front around/after 00Z Saturday, with strong instability and sufficient shear enough to result in scattered strong to severe convection in VC of the I-30 corridor. Have maintained chance pops for this area Friday night, with the convection potentially reinforcing the front SE into Srn AR/extreme NE TX. Any severe threat should diminish late as the greater forcing aloft shifts farther ENE of the region. 15 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 415 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025 The presence of the residual sfc bndry Saturday should be the focal point for increasing convection later Saturday afternoon/night as another series of perturbations aloft translate E near and atop the front during peak heating. Given ample instability that will be present, should again be posing with the potential for scattered severe convection from N/NE TX into SE OK/SW AR and possibly portions of N LA. The frontal placement will make the overall storm track a little tricky, but am confident enough to raise pops to high chance N of the I-20 corridor, although the potential for cold pooling may allow for more organized coverage to reach I-20 especially during the evening/overnight hours. The severe potential should diminish though as we move into the overnight hours with bndry lyr stabilization and as the weaknesses aloft shift farther E over the Lower MS Valley. The next upper trough that should translate through the Great Basin and into the Rockies Sunday will help to amplify upper ridging once again from the TX Coastal Plains NE into the MS Valley late in the day, with increasing subsidence over our region deflecting the mean storm track farther N and W into the Srn Plains/Ozarks/Mid-South region. However, where the ridging will be weakest (ie over SE OK/SW AR), isolated to widely scattered convection can't be ruled out Sunday afternoon where low chance pops remain in place, before the ridging is able to build far enough N to suppress convection development by Sunday night/Monday. This reprieve will be temporary though as this next closed low out W enters the Four Corner Region, eventually ejecting E out into the Cntrl/Srn Plains Tuesday. This next attendant trough should again displace the ridging aloft farther E, invigorating deep (potentially severe) convection development along/E of the W TX dryline and attendant cold front as the trough axis takes on a neutral to negative tilt Tuesday afternoon. Surprisingly good agreement exists amongst the various ensembles with the low/trough ejection Tuesday afternoon/night, with the resultant squall line shifting E through the region. One question that remains though is whether the primary trough ejects farther NNE into the Mid-South thus weakening the convection late Tuesday especially over Deep E TX into NCntrl/NE LA. The resultant weak cold frontal passage in wake of this system by the end of the extended period (around midweek) should allow for slightly cooler but drier/calmer conditions over the region through the latter half of the work week and into the start of the Memorial Day weekend. 15 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 640 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025 For the ArkLaTex terminals, we are seeing some brief MVFR cigs 11-16Z this morning. Windy day once again with LLWS around 50KT from S/SW attm that will mix down with heating soon with S/SW10-20G30KT. KTXK may see a window for convection tonight with our I-20 terminals potentially seeing same window late Friday/eve and once more late Saturday. A weak cool front approaches with touchy convection, but we will keep Southerly winds all wknd. /24/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 415 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon through this evening northwest of the Interstate 30 corridor of extreme Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and Southwest Arkansas, should any isolated storms develop. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 94 75 94 74 / 0 0 10 20 MLU 92 74 92 74 / 0 0 0 30 DEQ 89 71 88 66 / 20 20 20 30 TXK 94 74 92 71 / 10 20 20 30 ELD 92 73 92 70 / 0 10 10 40 TYR 92 75 92 74 / 10 10 20 20 GGG 92 74 92 73 / 10 10 10 20 LFK 93 74 93 74 / 0 0 10 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....15 AVIATION...24
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
645 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025
OKZ077-151245-
McCurtain OK-
645 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MCCURTAIN COUNTY UNTIL
745 AM CDT...
At 645 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles north of Manchester, or 12 miles northwest of Valliant, moving
east northeast at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.
Locations impacted include...
Broken Bow, Wright City, Valliant, Hochatown, Mount Herman,
Sherwood, Glover, Slim, Rufe and Plunketville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
If on or near Pine Creek Lake, get out of the water and move indoors
or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.
&&
LAT...LON 3445 9447 3412 9447 3398 9516 3416 9516
3416 9515 3420 9515
TIME...MOT...LOC 1144Z 250DEG 33KT 3408 9518
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
15The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 130 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 12:12 UTC.
1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A picture of quarter to half dollar size hail was posted to social media that fell along Sugarberry and Grape Trail southwest of Hochatown.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oklahoma in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Oklahoma, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1262427.