What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 6, 12:51 PM EST, 1 hour 24 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 6, 12:51 PM EST, 1 hour 24 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
151 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A moist cold front will bring scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms to our area this afternoon and evening. A few strong
to severe storms are possible. Cooler and drier weather returns on
Sunday and lingers through most of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Saturday: A broad area of showers with embedded
thunderstorms is slowly moving into the mountains at this time. This
convection will steadily spread across the area into the early
evening, moving east by midnight. Mesoanalysis shows sbCAPE greater
than 1500 J/kg for most of the area with effective bulk shear in the
30 kt range. Low level lapse rates are increasing and DCAPE is
generally 700 J/kg or greater along and south of the I-85 corridor.
Therefore, expect a better chance of semi-organized severe storms in
that area. That said, an isolated strong to severe storm is possible
north of I-85, especially as the storms initially move in. Damaging
winds are the main threat, but some marginally large hail is also
possible.
Winds shift to the N to NE overnight behind the departing cold front
as high pressure builds in from the north. Low level moisture also
increases on this flow leading to cloudy skies. Fog is also
possible, especially in the normally more foggy areas. Lows will be
near normal.
Low level moisture lingers across the area in the northeasterly flow
even as high pressure continues to build in. This will keep low
clouds across the area through the morning. Isolated to perhaps
scattered showers and a few storms will be possible in this moist
flow. Highs will show close to a 10 degree NE to SW gradient across
the area also due to the high pressure building in. Highs will range
from 5 to 10 degrees below normal with the warmest readings along
the Upper Savannah River Valley into the normally warmer NC mountain
valleys west of the French Broad.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1:35 PM EDT Saturday: The short-term fcst picks up at 00z on
Monday with long-wave upper trofing centered just to our north while
broad upper ridging covers the western CONUS. Over the next couple
of days, the upper trof will lift northward with heights rebounding
over our area. At the sfc, robust high pressure will be spreading
over the Southeast as the period begins late Sunday bringing cooler
and drier air for the rest of the period with no significant precip
chances for our fcst area. Temperatures are expected to remain 5 to
10 degrees below climatology thru the period.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1:15 PM EDT Saturday: The extended fcst picks up at 00z on
Wednesday with broad upper trofing having retreated northward as
heights rebound over our area. Over the next few days, the large-
scale pattern will amplify again as upper trofing digs down over
New England and stout upper ridging persists to our west over the
central CONUS. At the sfc, broad high pressure will be centered
well to our NE over the Nova Scotia area but still covering most
of the eastern CONUS. On Wednesday, the high will slide further
NE while a weak sfc low tries to develop within the baroclinic
zone just off the SE Coast. Most of the current long-range guidance
has this weak low move up the Eastern Seaboard on Wednesday and
Thursday, while its associated deeper moisture remains just east
of our fcst area. Another robust high is then expected to migrate
southward from Canada by late week and spread another round of drier
air back over the Southeast. Overall, the sensible fcst remains
largely unchanged. We can expect cool and mostly dry conditions
thru the period. Temperatures are expected to warm on Wednesday
and Thursday but still remain a few degrees below climatology.
They will cool again by the end of period as the next round of
high pressure spreads over the area.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A broad area of showers with embedded
thunderstorms will move into the area ahead of a cold front this
afternoon and cross the area into early evening. The period of
convection could be somewhat prolonged, with multiple rounds of
storms, even if direct impacts at the airfields will be relatively
brief associated with individual cells. Therefore, have kept the
PROB30 instead of a TEMPO for all sites to show the broader timing
potential. SW winds, NW at KAVl, may have some low end gusts ahead
of the front. Winds turn N to NE behind the front late this evening
and overnight. MVFR stratocu develops overnight in the developing
moist northeasterly flow. IFR is likely at KAVL and possible at
KHKY. Any vsby restrictions should end by 14Z but MVFR cigs will
linger until at least 16Z and could go longer. Some showers are also
possible in the moist NE flow which could prompt additional
restrictions. N to NE winds continue through the day.
Outlook: Dry high pressure is expected into the middle of next week.
Fog and/or low stratus is possible each morning, especially in the
favored mountain valleys.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...RWH
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 6, 12:40 PM EST, 1 hour 35 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
140 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-071745-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-
Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
140 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and the
western Carolinas.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and early evening ahead of
a cold front. A few isolated severe storms may develop with the main
hazard being brief damaging wind gusts. However, isolated large hail
will also be possible. Additionally, locally heavy rainfall may lead
to localized flooding.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
None.
AR
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Sep 6, 1:24 PM EST, 51 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
224 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
NCZ037-061900-
Davie NC-
224 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN DAVIE COUNTY
THROUGH 300 PM EDT...
At 224 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Mocksville, or near Bermuda Run, moving east at 15
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Bermuda Run, Farmington, and Advance.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3594 8049 3601 8055 3606 8046 3605 8046
3600 8041 3599 8042 3596 8038 3593 8037
TIME...MOT...LOC 1824Z 256DEG 12KT 3599 8046
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
ARSpecial weather statement, Sep 6, 1:40 PM EST, 35 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
240 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
NCZ065-509-SCZ103-061915-
Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-Greenville Mountains SC-
240 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON AND NORTH
CENTRAL GREENVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...
At 239 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Hendersonville, or 5 miles northeast of Jones Gap
State Park, moving northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Flat Rock, Saluda, Jones Gap State Park, Caesars Head State Park,
Dupont State Forest, Tuxedo, North Saluda Reservoir, Crab Creek, and
East Flat Rock.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3518 8232 3508 8263 3513 8263 3513 8262
3514 8261 3514 8258 3515 8259 3517 8259
3521 8260 3532 8238
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 244DEG 19KT 3519 8251
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ARSpecial weather statement, Sep 6, 1:52 PM EST, 23 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
252 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
NCZ068-061930-
Cleveland NC-
252 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN CLEVELAND COUNTY
THROUGH 330 PM EDT...
At 252 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southwest of Shelby, or near Patterson Springs, moving
northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Shelby, Kings Mountain, Boiling Springs NC, Patterson Springs, Waco,
Earl, and Grover.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3542 8146 3536 8141 3533 8136 3531 8137
3530 8136 3528 8136 3526 8132 3523 8132
3517 8146 3517 8164 3526 8171 3544 8147
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 235DEG 19KT 3523 8158
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
ARSpecial weather statement, Sep 6, 2:06 PM EST, 9 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
306 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
NCZ069>071-061930-
Gaston NC-Lincoln NC-Mecklenburg NC-
306 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN...WEST
CENTRAL MECKLENBURG AND NORTHEASTERN GASTON COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM
EDT...
At 306 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Gastonia, or over Stanley, moving northeast at 35
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Gastonia, Huntersville, Dallas, Stanley, Ranlo, Mt Holly, Lowesville,
and Lucia.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
If on or near Mountain Island Lake, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.
&&
LAT...LON 3527 8116 3533 8120 3545 8100 3535 8088
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 240DEG 30KT 3535 8110
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ARSpecial weather statement, Sep 6, 2:10 PM EST, 5 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
310 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
GAZ018-SCZ104-061945-
Stephens GA-Greater Oconee SC-
310 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN STEPHENS AND
SOUTHWESTERN OCONEE COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...
At 309 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northeast of Toccoa, moving northeast at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Stephens and southwestern Oconee Counties.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
If on or near northern Hartwell Lake, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.
&&
LAT...LON 3458 8328 3463 8332 3473 8321 3461 8311
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 241DEG 8KT 3463 8326
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
ARSpecial weather statement, Sep 6, 2:12 PM EST, 3 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
312 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
SCZ013-109-061945-
Southern Spartanburg SC-Union SC-
312 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN SPARTANBURG AND
WEST CENTRAL UNION COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...
At 312 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles northeast of Laurens, or 8 miles southeast of Woodruff, moving
east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Enoree and Cross Anchor.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3462 8193 3465 8195 3465 8197 3466 8198
3466 8200 3475 8184 3468 8175 3460 8191
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 291DEG 13KT 3468 8190
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
AR