A stalled frontal boundary produced thunderstorms, concentrated north of Highway 70, with the greatest coverage along and north of Highway 264. Several storms became severe and produced damaging winds, large hail up to tennis ball size, and an isolated tornado.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MHX wrote it up.
A stalled frontal boundary produced thunderstorms, concentrated north of Highway 70, with the greatest coverage along and north of Highway 264. Several storms became severe and produced damaging winds, large hail up to tennis ball size, and an isolated tornado.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 15, 1:34 PM EST, 1 hour 36 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 234 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather continues today as a trough axis moves through the region. Summer-like weather arrives late this week as a ridge of high pressure builds through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 235 PM Thu... KEY MESSAGES - Conditional severe thunderstorm risk late this afternoon and evening, best chances across the northern forecast area between 5-11 PM. Latest analysis shows wavy front draped through the Mid-Atlantic with weak troughing extending through the Carolinas. Isolated seabreeze showers beginning to develop now. This afternoon, heating of a moist boundary layer should lead to a gradual erosion of the cap, with most guidance suggesting an area of moderate to strong instability developing (MLCAPE of 2000-3000j/kg). Meanwhile, northwesterly flow aloft overtop south to southwest SFC winds should lead to deep layer shear increasing to 30-40kt. The overlap of strong instability and moderate shear is more anomalous for this time of year. Essentially we will be overlapping summer instability with spring shear. At face value, the shear/instability combo today is more than sufficient for severe thunderstorms, including the potential for some higher end severe weather. However, convection this afternoon and evening will be fighting against warming temps aloft and upper level ridging building in from the SW. At the sfc, forcing looks to be primarily driven by sea/bay/river breezes, as well as a weak lee trough. Aloft, a mid-level shortwave translating east out of the TN Valley may also provide some support for lift. Short-term guidance remains in good agreement depicting isolated to scattered convective development where lift is maximized...best chances across the northern portions of the forecast area. Of note, some guidance is a bit more aggressive, showing supercells upstream congealing into one or two clusters that eventually move SE towards the coast during the evening hours. With any deep convection that can develop, and be sustained, the environment appears supportive of some higher end severe weather (large hail of golf ball size or larger, and damaging winds of 70+ mph). A low-end tornado potential appears evident as well, although higher LCLs and weaker low-level flow should keep this risk limited/more brief in nature. Lastly, should clusters of thunderstorms develop, there would be a locally enhanced wind risk. This appears to be one of those potential high impact, but low confidence scenarios. The environment supports some higher end severe potential, but the above-mentioned limitations make it unclear whether or not deep convection can develop and be sustained. Warming temps aloft and mid/upper level ridging should lead to a gradual decrease in convective coverage and intensity after midnight. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... As of 235 PM Thu... KEY MESSAGES - Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and evening Ridge continues to build Friday combined with SW winds will usher in a very warm airmass. Though dependent on cloud cover, will likely see temps climb into the low 90s inland (possible mid 90s) and low to upper 80s for the beaches. Main question will be the convective potential Fri afternoon and evening. Strength of the ridge should limit widespread convection, though with sea/sound breezes, the strong instability (ML CAPE 3-4000 J/kg) and shear, there is potential for isolated to widely scattered development (best chances across the northern 2/3 of the area. If any showers or storms are able to develop there is potential for a few stronger storms given the instability in place. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 0400 Thursday... Hot again on Saturday in downsloping flow, push highs into the lower or mid 90s with dew points still in the upper 60s. Heat indices in the upper 90s FRI, mid 90s SAT. Westerly flow intersecting the sea breeze could produce isolated storms during the afternoon with a slight uptick in rain chances during the evening as a cold front approaches the area, crossing overnight. Followed by a secondary backdoor front end of the weekend. Quiet and relatively cool early through midweek ahead of the next vertically stacked low to dig toward the Carolinas late week. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 235 PM Thu... KEY MESSAGES - Modest TSRA potential through late this afternoon and evening, with potential for brief periods of sub-VFR VFR conditions expected through the period, outside of convection. With daytime heating and destabilization, isolated to scattered TSRA may redevelop by late afternoon into the evening hours. There are a couple of limiting factors for TSRA later today into tonight, however if TSRA manage to develop, there will be a subsequent risk of large hail (>1" in diameter) and 50-60kt+ winds. A low-end tornado risk appears evident as well. Sub-VFR conditions would occur with any TSRA as well. It appears that the TSRA risk will gradually decrease late tonight, with isolated chances Friday afternoon and evening. LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 0400 Thursday...Shower chances decrease late this week and into the weekend, but isolated to scattered coverage will be possible each day (primarily during the afternoon). && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 235 PM Thu... KEY MESSAGES - Thunderstorms risk returns this afternoon and this evening Latest obs show SW winds 5-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft this afternoon. Modest southwesterly flow of 10-20 kt expected through tonight. Within this flow, occasional gusts up to 25 kt will be possible across the central waters and the Pamlico Sound. However, the risk doesn't appear significant enough to warrant any marine headlines. The modest southwesterly flow will keep seas elevated (3-5 ft). Similar pattern expected Fri, SW 5-15 kt early increasing to 10-20 kt late. The thunderstorm risk returns late afternoon into this evening, with sct coverage. Where thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening, there will be a risk of large hail and wind gusts in excess of 50kt. LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 0400 Thursday...Boating conditions deteriorate Saturday ahead of the next cold front to cross area waters leading to probable SCA conditions in SWerly 15-25kt winds SAT afternoon and evening. Secondary backdoor front sinks S across waters late Sunday. High pressure builds in with Nerly surge late SUN night/MON AM. Generally 10-15kt winds slowly through early week N-NEerly Tuesday becoming Eerly Wednesday as offshore high departs SEward and next low approaches from the W. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...CEB AVIATION...CQD/CEB MARINE...CQD/CEB
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1121 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025 NCZ029-044>047-079>081-091-092-094-193-194-203-161530- Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Greene-Beaufort- Mainland Hyde-Lenoir-Jones-Pamlico-Northern Craven-Southern Craven- Northern Outer Banks- 1121 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and this evening. Where thunderstorms manage to develop, the potential exists for large hail up to golf ball size and damaging winds of 50 to 70 mph. A low end, and brief, tornado potential exists as well. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ204-205-161530- Ocracoke Island-Hatteras Island- 1121 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025 ...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Moderate Rip Current Risk. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and this evening. Where thunderstorms manage to develop, the potential exists for large hail up to golf ball size and damaging winds of 50 to 70 mph. A low end, and brief, tornado potential exists as well. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ090-198-161530- Duplin-Inland Onslow- 1121 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ195-196-199-161530- West Carteret-East Carteret-Coastal Onslow- 1121 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025 ...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Moderate Rip Current Risk. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
346 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025
NCZ092-094-193-194-152015-
Jones NC-Northern Craven NC-Pamlico NC-Southern Craven NC-
346 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL JONES...SOUTH
CENTRAL CRAVEN AND SOUTHWESTERN PAMLICO COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM
EDT...
At 346 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
New Bern, moving northeast at 5 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
New Bern, Havelock, James City, Trent Woods, River Bend, Rhems,
Olympia, Croatan, Riverdale, Catfish Lake, Neuse Forest, Fairfield
Harbour, Coastal Carolina Regional Airport, Bridgeton, and
Pollocksville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3486 7707 3504 7727 3520 7703 3499 7681
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 235DEG 4KT 3501 7707
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
RJThe Morehead City radar (KMHX), 32 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:11 UTC.
6 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind, 1 flash flood, 1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
A report of half dollar sized hail came in from social media. The time was estimated based on radar data.
A picture of quarter size hail was sent by WOBX.
Pictures of tennis ball size hail near Stokes was sent by a viewer to WITN. The time was estimated based on radar data.
Dominion Power reports 130 customers without power due to thunderstorm winds blowing down powerlines.
The report came in through mPING.
The hail fell approximately 2 miles northwest of Washington.
Stalled vehicles were reported due to high water along South Old Oregon Inlet Road in South Nags Head.
A brief, weak tornado touched down Thursday evening just south of|Wanchese on Roanoke Island. Video of the tornado was sent to the|office of a brief touchdown over the baseball fields of Pigum|Walker Park. The path consisted mainly of a mix of medium and|large limbs across the field. A bleacher was tossed about 10 to 15|feet into a concessions building where it then lifted toward the|parking lot. The concessions building lost shingles on both the|south and north side of the building, a strong indication of |rotation in this area, as confirmed by the video submitted to the |office. Peak wind speeds here were estimated at around 80 MPH.
A narrow and sporadic damage path continued to the southeast|across Brinkly Road, and near Old Schoolhouse Road. Damage here|again consisted of mainly medium sized limbs, but a few larger |limbs were noted. One tree was snapped halfway up the base but|were likely weaker due to disease in the middle, with winds |estimated around 75 MPH.
The path continued toward the southeast on Holly Lane, where a |medium, healthy tree was uprooted. Numerous medium to large |branches were found all along the path. While the tree was |uprooted to the south, numerous tree branches were bent back |toward the right of the path (or toward the east), confirming |rotation continued in this area. The damage path finally ended |near E R Daniels Road, where a shed was blown over, a few more |medium limbs were broken, and some horse training equipment was |blown over. Winds here likely weakened to 70 MPH.
The hail fell several miles east of Blounts Creek.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for North Carolina, 2025Warnings in North Carolina, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1245869, 1247715, 1245870, 1245875, 1245871, 1245872, 1245868, 1245878, 1245873.