What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 31, 3:28 PM EST, 43 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 31, 3:28 PM EST, 43 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
428 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Shower and thunderstorms are expected today as cold front moves
through the area. A few of these storms could be severe. High
pressure returns Tuesday and a ridge builds in, resulting in well-
above-normal temperatures through the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 425 PM Monday: Quick update to lop off a few more zones on the
west side of WW87 behind the convective line. Lowered precip probs
to the west as well. Temp modified based on observation trends.
Otherwise...thye remainder of Svr Tstm Watch 87 remains in
effect thru 23Z for eastern Upstate SC, and row of zones along
NC/SC border including most of metro CLT. Environment ahead of
this line continues to slowly destabilize in spite of extensive
low cloudiness, with a plume of sfc-based CAPE climbing into the
1000-1500 range, which should be enough fuel to keep the line going
and perhaps support some transient supercell structures given
expected effective shear of 30-40kt thru late afternoon. Given
the more linear organization at the time, some line breaks with
mesovortices are also possible. Note that a few tornadoes are
still possible as this convection makes its way east, mainly in
the vicinity of a weak remnant outflow boundary from the morning
convection. A few of the CAMs show brief rotating cores mainly
once the activity gets farther east toward the Charlotte metro
area. Slightly better low level shear/helicity in the vicinity of
this remnant boundary could be just enough to support the brief
tornado threat. The CAMs generally show this activity making it
east of the fcst area around 22Z to 23Z, with the trailing precip
and some scattered shower activity moving out as the main short
wave sweeps thru during the early-mid evening. Precip probs taper
quickly after that to some lingering activity on the TN border.
In the wake of this system, the model guidance doesn't depict any
really big pattern change. The flow pattern remains relatively flat
thru Tuesday with a low amplitude mid/upper ridge moving in. This
supports a large high located well to our north but ridging down
late tonight and thru Tuesday. Temps should drop back to near
normal overnight with clearing sky and a northerly wind. The air
mass will be drier for sure, but not overly dry, so the fcst RH
values in the afternoon remain above the level of concern. That
should buy a little more time to assess the impact of the recent
rain on the fire situation. High temps will be on the order of a
category above normal under a sunny sky.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:
1) Mostly dry weather returns Wednesday and Thursday.
2) Above normal temperatures Thursday.
As of 155 PM Monday: The synoptic pattern puts a strengthening
trough out west with an amplifying ridge over the southeast.
Guidance from the GFS/EURO both show a stout ridge expanding over
the CWA Wednesday with continuing height rises through Thursday.
This is trending rainfall potential even drier as the area of better
lift/convergence is off the NW of the CWA. Given the southerly
surface flow and ample moisture, cannot rule out a pop up shower
during the short term. However, the lower QPF response keeps
confidence in rainfall low. Will cap PoPs into the slight chance
range. With the moisture increasing over the area, this staves off
most fire weather concerns as RH values increase. Winds across the
mountains could be breezy Wednesday and Thursday as a tighter
pressure gradient at the surface is present as an area of low
pressure lifts to the north. Additionally, these height rises bring
temperatures well above normal through the short term and into the
next.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages
1) Dry weather continues into the weekend as a strong ridge builds
across the Southeast
2) Temperatures warm to near record highs Friday and Saturday.
3) Rain chances may return Sunday with a pattern change.
As of 200 PM Monday: Height rises continue to trend toward an
amplifying ridge over the southeast into the weekend. Guidance from
the GFS/EURO amplify a persistent ridge across the southeast in
response to a deepening trough to the west. Southerly flow remains
dominate during the time, so moisture remains in the area. Despite
the moisture, most of the better precipitation chances remain to the
northwest of the CWA through at least Saturday. By Sunday, high
pressure moving down from Canada expands southward This is highly
uncertain since it's a week away, but the signals do point at a
pattern change. Given the moisture in the region, won't rule out a
few scattered showers, so will keep slight chance PoPs for most of
the extended. Additionally, confidence is increasing that the area
could have temperatures nearing records this weekend depending on
the strength of the building ridge.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: No shortage of restrictions for the afternoon
at all terminals. Radar trends and CAMs show the main push of a
convective band crossing the region between now (west) and roughly
23Z (east). All terminals get a TEMPO for 2-4 hours for TSRA, given
the proclivity of lightning. Expect brief IFR/LIFR vis/cig as the
line of storms moves across. Hard to say how severe this will be
at any terminal, but a Svr Watch remains in effect thru 23Z. Ahead
of the line, scattered showers and a few tstms will continue to
develop in the southerly warm advection upglide regime over the
western Piedmont/nrn Upstate. Cig continues to improve to MVFR
there, but wind has been slow to mix down occasional gusts from
the S to SW. Once the line passes, wind will shift more SW to W,
but the real wind shift to NW will probably hold off until the end
of the trailing precip after 01Z to 03Z. Rapid improvement to VFR
can be expected once the main precip exits to the east. VFR at
all terminals east of the mtns from roughly sunset onward. Some
brief upslope cloudiness/showers could linger on the TN border
into the early morning hours, with a cig restriction possible at
KAVL thru daybreak Tuesday possible. High pressure will build in
Tuesday with a N to NE wind and only scattered high clouds.
Outlook: A small chance of showers and associated restrictions
Wednesday and Thursday. Most likely VFR from Friday thru the
weekend.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 04-03
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 88 1963 31 1936 64 1946 23 1936
KCLT 90 1946 42 1915 62 1986 26 2021
1946
KGSP 87 1967 44 1901 62 2014 27 2021
1963 1993
1946 1902
RECORDS FOR 04-04
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 83 1999 33 1891 61 1893 22 1936
1978
KCLT 87 1999 43 1911 63 1986 29 1936
1899 1945
1934
KGSP 88 1963 44 1936 62 1999 25 1975
1934
RECORDS FOR 04-05
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 86 1909 30 1891 60 2023 20 1944
1910
KCLT 88 1942 38 1891 62 1910 26 1891
KGSP 90 1934 43 1899 60 2023 25 1904
1888
RECORDS FOR 04-06
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 88 1967 36 1950 64 2023 22 1898
KCLT 90 2010 43 1931 67 2023 28 1891
1929
KGSP 88 2010 47 1950 65 2023 26 1904
1945
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 31, 1:51 PM EST, 2 hours 20 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
251 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ064-065-068>072-082-507>510-SCZ008>014-
019-101>109-011900-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Transylvania-Henderson-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
251 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 87 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
A line of showers and thunderstorms cross the area from the west
through this evening. Some of these storms may be strong to severe
with damaging winds being the main threat. Also hail and isolated
tornadoes will be possible, especially across the Piedmont.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.
NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062-063-501>506-011900-
Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-
Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
251 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Piedmont North Carolina and
western North Carolina.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
A line of showers and thunderstorms cross the area from the west
through this evening. Some of these storms may be strong to severe
with damaging winds being the main threat. Also hail and isolated
tornadoes will be possible, especially across the Piedmont.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Mar 31, 12:45 PM EST, 3 hours 26 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
145 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
NCZ048-052-053-059-311815-
Buncombe NC-Haywood NC-Madison NC-Northern Jackson NC-
145 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL JACKSON...SOUTH
CENTRAL MADISON...WESTERN BUNCOMBE AND CENTRAL HAYWOOD COUNTIES
THROUGH 215 PM EDT...
At 145 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northwest of Waynesville, or near Maggie Valley, moving east at
40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Candler, Lake Junaluska, Leicester, Waynesville, Maggie Valley, Cove
Creek, Clyde, West Asheville, Canto, and Balsam.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3553 8255 3540 8311 3554 8317 3556 8316
3558 8318 3579 8267
TIME...MOT...LOC 1745Z 249DEG 36KT 3553 8307
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
RWHSpecial weather statement, Mar 31, 12:55 PM EST, 3 hours 16 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
155 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
NCZ052-059-062>064-311830-
Transylvania NC-Haywood NC-Southern Jackson NC-Northern Jackson NC-
Macon NC-
155 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN MACON...CENTRAL
TRANSYLVANIA...CENTRAL JACKSON AND SOUTHEASTERN HAYWOOD COUNTIES
THROUGH 230 PM EDT...
At 155 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Franklin, or 6 miles southwest of Cullowhee,
moving east at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Graveyard Fields, Ellijay, Savannah, Tuckasegee, Balsam Grove, Cruso,
Wolf Mountain, Lake Glenville, Looking Glass, and B.R. Parkway-Black
Balsam To Mount Pisgah.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for
western North Carolina.
&&
LAT...LON 3511 8327 3529 8335 3549 8282 3524 8271
TIME...MOT...LOC 1755Z 249DEG 36KT 3523 8323
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
RWHSpecial weather statement, Mar 31, 1:02 PM EST, 3 hours 9 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
202 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
GAZ010-017-018-026-SCZ101-104-311845-
Franklin GA-Rabun GA-Stephens GA-Habersham GA-Greater Oconee SC-
Oconee Mountains SC-
202 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT FRANKLIN...STEPHENS...EASTERN
HABERSHAM...CENTRAL RABUN AND CENTRAL OCONEE COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM
EDT...
At 202 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Clayton to near Toccoa to 3 miles north of
Commerce. Movement was east at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Westminster, Long Creek, Carnesville, Avalon, Gumlog, Tiger, Canon,
Tallulah Gorge State Park, Victoria Bryant State Park, and Lake
Rabun.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for
northeastern Georgia...and Upstate South Carolina.
&&
LAT...LON 3426 8334 3432 8339 3443 8338 3446 8340
3448 8347 3449 8352 3459 8348 3488 8348
3502 8302 3449 8305 3441 8310 3428 8310
3424 8317 3425 8320 3424 8325 3426 8330
3423 8335
TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 249DEG 35KT 3487 8336 3458 8335 3427 8347
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
TWSpecial weather statement, Mar 31, 1:15 PM EST, 2 hours 56 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
215 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
NCZ048>050-052-053-059-063>065-311845-
Buncombe NC-Transylvania NC-Haywood NC-Yancey NC-Henderson NC-
Southern Jackson NC-Madison NC-Mitchell NC-Northern Jackson NC-
215 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL TRANSYLVANIA...
NORTHWESTERN HENDERSON...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON...CENTRAL MADISON...
NORTHWESTERN MITCHELL...BUNCOMBE...SOUTHEASTERN HAYWOOD AND YANCEY
COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...
At 215 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles north of Marshall to 11 miles west of
Downtown Asheville to 17 miles southeast of Franklin. Movement was
northeast at 60 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Buladean, East Asheville, Green Mountain, Flat Creek, West Asheville,
Poplar, Marshall, B.R. Parkway-Nc Arboretum To East Asheville,
Burnsville, and Biltmore Forest.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for
western North Carolina.
&&
LAT...LON 3614 8218 3615 8215 3595 8222 3531 8264
3501 8312 3505 8315 3594 8270 3600 8262
3597 8261 3595 8257 3598 8251 3601 8246
3608 8241 3612 8236 3614 8229 3613 8225
3616 8222
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 229DEG 52KT 3593 8262 3558 8276 3507 8310
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
RWHSpecial weather statement, Mar 31, 1:45 PM EST, 2 hours 26 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
245 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
NCZ033-049-050-053-065-503-505-507-311915-
Buncombe NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Yancey NC-Burke Mountains NC-
Henderson NC-Rutherford Mountains NC-Avery NC-Mitchell NC-
245 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN MCDOWELL...WEST CENTRAL
RUTHERFORD...NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON...SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL...
SOUTHWESTERN AVERY...BUNCOMBE AND SOUTHERN YANCEY COUNTIES THROUGH
315 PM EDT...
At 245 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southwest of Burnsville to 5 miles
south of Downtown Asheville. Movement was east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Ingalls, East Asheville, Linville Falls, West Asheville, Swannanoa,
North Cove, Chimney Rock Village, Celo, Little Switzerland, and
Warren Wilson College.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for
western North Carolina.
&&
LAT...LON 3603 8186 3544 8221 3548 8276 3580 8249
3582 8241 3587 8243 3590 8241
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 259DEG 26KT 3584 8237 3551 8257
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
RWHSpecial weather statement, Mar 31, 2:26 PM EST, 1 hour 45 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
326 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
NCZ036-056-057-069-312000-
Rowan NC-Iredell NC-Lincoln NC-Catawba NC-
326 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CATAWBA...
NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN...SOUTHEASTERN IREDELL AND WESTERN ROWAN
COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...
At 325 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles east of Newton, or near Lake Norman, moving east at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Westport, Enochville, Mount Ulla, Bandys, Lake Norman, Mooresville,
Piedmont Research Station, Cleveland, Lake Norman State Park, and
Landis.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for
the Piedmont of North Carolina.
&&
LAT...LON 3551 8074 3551 8091 3549 8094 3547 8115
3565 8119 3582 8058 3578 8051 3553 8045
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 252DEG 33KT 3560 8100
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
RWH