A weak frontal zone was oriented southwest to northeast across central North Carolina. Scattered showers and storms developed during the late afternoon and evening within a highly anomalous moisture environment.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
A weak frontal zone was oriented southwest to northeast across central North Carolina. Scattered showers and storms developed during the late afternoon and evening within a highly anomalous moisture environment. Some training storms led to several instances of flash flooding over the eastern and northeastern Piedmont, especially across Wake County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 11, 1:05 PM EST, 2 hours 38 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 205 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast will drift toward Bermuda through mid-week. A weak, backdoor cold front will move south through NC Friday or Friday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 145 PM Monday... While one band of rain developed along the US-64 corridor and moved north this morning, the next area of rain that appears likely to impact the region is currently developing across northern South Carolina and southern North Carolina, moving from south to north oriented along an east-to-west line. Multiple runs of the HRRR seem to have a good handle on this, and have heavily blended the forecast towards the HRRR-time lagged ensemble. This forecast brings the line into southern counties during the mid afternoon and fading out around sunset as it approaches US 64. The band is moving slowly to the north, and with high moisture content in the atmosphere, cannot rule out the possibility for some isolated flooding. Luckily, it does not appear that much training of showers should occur, although the entire area is under a marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall. Conditions should dry out this evening before another area of rain develops across the southwest late tonight. Below normal highs continue, with values ranging from the upper 70s to the mid 80s. Lows will be similar to last night, in the upper 60s and lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 145 PM Monday... Moist flow out of the south will continue on Tuesday as an upper level low to the east of Florida drifts closer to land. There will already be some showers across western counties from the overnight hours with coverage expanding to the east during the day. Instability looks to be slightly higher than today, although shear should still be minimal, minimizing any severe weather potential. However, the area will still remain under a marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall. The HREF indicates that the heaviest rainfall would be likely to occur across southern counties during the morning hours. Highs will rise a few degrees from today, with nearly all locations in the 80s. An isolated low temperature in the upper 60s is possible, but most locations will be in the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 205 PM Monday... *Showers and storms Wednesday, with heat returning Thursday. *The weekend is expected to be mostly dry with near normal temperatures. A few upper level shortwaves will move across the region Wednesday budging up against a ridge centered over Florida that is building north. By late week and over the weekend the ridge will expand across much of the Southeast. At the surface a few frontal boundaries are expected to to move over the Midwest and into the Northeast mid to late week generally staying north of Central NC. Wednesday is expected to be the best day for showers and storms as the surface trough moves across the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday into Thursday. Thursday through Friday afternoon showers and storms are still expected to develop as PW values of 2+ inches will stick around until the surface trough moves off the coast and weak high pressure builds in. Isolated flash flooding is possible over portions of Central NC through Friday as vertical wind shear will be weak, most models are indicating shear values of 10 kts or less Thursday and Friday (days with higher chance for flash flooding). As upper level ridging and high pressure builds into the region over the weekend drier weather along with slightly below normal temperatures is expected. Saturday a backdoor cold front will try and push through the region, but expected to wash out before making it through the region. Isolated afternoon showers and storms are possible Saturday and Sunday but models seem to be trending dry. Monday another day of afternoon showers and storms are possible but limited PoPs to slight chance (< 24%) as confidence is low. Temperatures will start off below normal on Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Temperatures will warm up Thursday (warmest day in the forecast) with high in the upper 80s to low 90s. Friday into the weekend temperatures will be near normal with most areas in the upper 80s and warmer spots reaching the low 90s. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM Monday... Onshore flow will maintain a very moist airmass that will favor redevelopment of LIFR-IFR ceilings tonight-Tue morning, after MVFR to low VFR ones this afternoon. Generally scattered showers and storms will concentrate along merged outflow and become briefly numerous, most likely in the near term at FAY and also GSO/INT this afternoon. Outlook: Like Mon, ceilings on Tue will lift through MVFR and scatter to VFR from mid to late morning through early to mid- afternoon. The forecast for the rest of the week will be characterized by mostly afternoon-evening showers/storms and patches of overnight-early morning fog and/or low stratus. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...Green SHORT TERM...Green LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...MWS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 431 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-120930- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance- Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake- Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson- Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson- 431 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. There is a marginal risk (level 1 out of 4) of excessive rainfall today into tonight. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated pockets of minor flooding are possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Isolated areas of excessive rainfall are again possible Tuesday, as well as Thursday and Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.
The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 54 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:40 UTC.
10 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A vehicle was stuck in floodwaters near the intersection of E US Highway 70 and North William Street.
The 860 block of Pilot-Riley Road was completely flooded, with water flowing across the roadway.
Clyde Pearce Road near the 80 block of the roadway was washout out.
Pigeon House Creek at Fenton Street exceeded minor flood stage, with impacts of inundated buildings adjacent to Capital Boulevard.
WRAL reported flooding at the 400 block of North Harrington Street in Raleigh.
There was a flooded roadway near the intersection of New Bethel Church Road and North Carolina Highway 39.
The USGS Marsh Creek gage at New Hope exceeded minor flood stage, flooding a parking lot upstream of Stony Brook Drive and water approaching residential areas.
The USGS Walnut Creek gage at Rose Lane in Raleigh exceeded minor flood stage.
Flooding was reported along Opie Frazier Road near Frazier Dement Road.
Marks Creek Road near Knightdale Boulevard was closed due to the road being washed out.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, August 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1280655, 1280650, 1280652, 1280640, 1280641, 1280656, 1280642, 1280645, 1280653, 1280646.