Flood in North Carolina, April 7, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
652 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Key Messages:

1. Light rain will continue off and on through the day before
diminishing along the mountains tonight. A brief transition to light
snow is possible along the highest peaks of the mountains, but
accumulations are not expected.

2. Temperatures will be cool through the day with many places
dropping to near freezing tonight.

Today

Currently early this morning, a trough is centered just to our west
with a jet streak extending into the eastern Great Lakes. At the
surface, a frontal boundary has pushed just off to the east. Upper
divergence with this upper jet and lingering moisture will keep
chances for light showers in the area this morning and into the
afternoon. By later this afternoon into the evening, northwesterly
flow will strengthen with the upper divergence associated with the
jet streak having pushed off to the east. This will shift the focus
for lingering showers along the mountains of East Tennessee and
southwest Virginia.

Tonight

Continued CAA will usher in conditions that do look sufficient for a
brief transition to light snow along the highest peaks of the
mountains. However, based on how quickly moisture exits, this is
still not expected to amount to much in those region. By early
Tuesday morning, deep troughing will remain in place with Canadian
high pressure becoming centered just to our northwest. The
increasing subsidence and recent CAA will allow temperatures to drop
to around freezing area-wide. The lingering cloud cover may limit
frost development in some locations, but many places can expect to
see some.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 353 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Key Messages:

1. Much colder temperatures are expected Tuesday morning through
Wednesday morning with frost/freeze conditions.

2. A weak system will bring chances for showers Thursday into
Friday.

3. Cooler temperatures arrive again by next weekend.

Tuesday and Wednesday

At the start of the period, deep troughing will be centered just to
our east with Canadian high pressure arriving from the northwest.
Recent CAA will have funneled in anomalously cold air with 850mb
temperatures well below freezing area-wide. While mostly clear
conditions can be expected, most of the area will struggle to get
much above 50 degrees. While not record values, this is well below
normal for the time of year and more typical of February normals.
By Wednesday morning, better radiational cooling will allow for most
of the region to see subfreezing temperatures, which will raise
concerns for unprotected vegetation outdoors. As the surface high
shifts eastward, southerly flow will recover temperatures further.
Another shortwave and developing system will come into view in the
Midwest.

Thursday through Sunday

On Thursday, the aforementioned system will track towards the Great
Lakes with stronger southerly flow expected ahead of its associated
frontal boundary. This will bring another chance for rain to the
area by later Thursday into Friday. However, overall moisture and
surface heating will be limited, so mostly light showers are
expected. Behind the front, another cooldown is expected heading
into the weekend, which will be further strengthened by a deep
closed low expected to be centered just east of the region. This may
bring frost/freeze conditions during the morning hours. Some sources
suggest some moisture to move through the region, which could bring
light rain or even flurries to the mountains. Overall, the weekend
will be notably colder with many places likely staying dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Poor aviation conditions are expected this morning, especially at
TYS and TRI where IFR to LIFR remain probable. Most of the showers
have moved east of CHA and TYS with TRI expected to see the
activity for a couple of hours. By this afternoon, CHA is likely
to see improvement to VFR with TYS and TRI staying IFR to MVFR
much of the day. Throughout the evening, ceilings will increase
and allow for VFR conditions to prevail. Currently, fog potential
looks limited.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             60  40  58  35 /  30   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  57  36  54  32 /  50   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       57  34  54  32 /  40   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              59  32  51  28 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION...BW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
350 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-080800-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
350 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025 /250 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Tuesday morning, freeze conditions are expected across the
mountains, northern Plateau, and southwest Virginia. Portions of
the northern and central Tennessee valleys may see patchy frost.

For Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, freeze conditions are
expected to be widespread.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not needed at this time.