Showers and thunderstorms developed along a Lake Erie lake breeze boundary during the late morning of June 18th. With the very high moisture laden airmass over the area, heavy rain occurred within some of the showers and thunderstorms that developed.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BUF wrote it up.
Showers and thunderstorms developed along a Lake Erie lake breeze boundary during the late morning of June 18th. With the very high moisture laden airmass over the area, heavy rain occurred within some of the showers and thunderstorms that developed. Some of the thunderstorms, especially early, trained over the same area long enough to cause flash flooding issues. Additional showers and thunderstorms developed during the afternoon ahead of a slow moving cold front over Lake Ontario, causing additional heavy rainfall for portions of the area. Most of the flooding occurred in portions of the western Southern Tier and in the northern Finger Lakes.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 18, 5:50 AM EST, 5 hours 40 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 650 AM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Humid conditions with summer-time warm will continue today as a cold front stalls to our west. Showers and thunderstorms will again increase in numbers this afternoon and early evening, with inland areas from the Lakes again favored for convection. The cold front to our west will cross our region late tonight through Thursday with showers, thunderstorms and gusty winds before lower humidity and more comfortable conditions settle into the region for Thursday night and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Regional radars display sparse amount of showers and isolated thunder along a narrow ribbon of moisture ahead of a stalling cold front to our west over southern Ontario Canada. This convection will advance towards the northern Niagara Frontier with a low chance for precipitation through the morning hours. Otherwise we will wait till this afternoon and evening for showers and thunderstorms to blossom within the peak heating of the day, and a humid boundary layer. Wind fields this afternoon remain fairly weak for severe storms to develop, with thunderstorms pulsing up and down. The atmosphere will be moist, with Pwat values expected to reach above 1.5 inches this afternoon. This will place well into the 90th percentile for mid June Pwats and any thunderstorm, or training storms has the potential to produce poor drainage flooding. Activity will again be favored inland from the lakes, with the still cool lake waters bringing stabilizing lake breeze circulations. A stray shower within this muggy atmosphere will remain possible through the mid overnight time period, then attention turns to the west where a deepening area of low pressure advancing along the stalled frontal boundary passes by just to our west. Driving this deepening surface low will be a 1.5 PV anomaly that will be fairly deep for this time of year, dropping across the Western Great Lakes. Convergence ahead of an increasing 40 to 45 knot LLJ as well as general convergence around the surface low and lift and instability ahead of a shortwave trough will bring back showers and thunderstorms into our region for the second half of tonight. With the axis of the LLJ over far WNY, any thunderstorm could bring locally higher wind gusts to the surface. Additionally the tightening pressure gradient will produce synoptic southwest wind gusts into the 30 mph range near Lake Erie and western portions of WNY. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Cold front pushes through the region during the first half of Thursday with a renewed threat for showers and thunderstorms. Depending on the exact timing of the frontal passage, there may be enough instability for the eastern half of the area for some strong to severe thunderstorms within an area of favorable shear, with damaging winds the main threat. The greatest potential looks to be east of I-81. Precipitable water values over 1.5" suggest the additional threat for locally heavy rainfall. Convection will gradually diminish late Thursday as the cold front exits. Some guidance continues a few showers through Thursday night with the trough axis of the larger scale trough over the region. Friday, some showers will be possible with the remnants of upstream convection and a shortwave trough within a northwest flow. Guidance is starting to back off some on the potential for showers/storms, but this will be closely monitored. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ...Dangerous Heat Sunday Through Tuesday... The next stout upper level ridge will slide across the Gulf States Saturday before amplifying northeastward Sunday and into the start of next week. This upper level feature will bring steady increasing heat and humidity into the region for the weekend and into the start of the new work week. However, an ill-timed shortwave ridge-runner will support the possibility for a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms Saturday through Sunday before surface high pressure then dominates overhead for the start of the week. As alluded to previously, the combination of 500 mb heights building to near 600dm over the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes would support very hot and humid conditions with heat index values climbing well into the 90s starting Sunday, and continuing through the rest of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... For the 12Z TAFS, low ceilings and some patches of fog remain across the Southern Tier (KJHW) with mainly MVFR/VFR flight conditions elsewhere. Ahead of a cold front a ribbon of moisture will produce a few weakening showers over southern Ontario Canada that may advance into the northern Niagara Frontier this morning (KIAG/KBUF) before activity diminishes with the increasing boundary layer this morning. Will carry a PROB30 for this activity. Showers and thunderstorms will again develop this afternoon and evening, generally away from the still cooler Lakes. Flight conditions will likely range from MVFR to VFR today, except for locally brief IFR in a heavier downpour of rain. This evening convection will begin to wane with the loss of daytime heating, though a still muggy airmass will allow for a spot shower through the late evening hours. Along the stalled frontal boundary to our west a wave of deepening low pressure will ride along the boundary. This feature will return showers and thunderstorms to WNY later overnight. In addition the low level wind field will increase such that southwest LLWS will become possible for KBUF/KIAG late tonight before surface winds increase. Outlook... Thursday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely. Breezy morning synoptic winds. Friday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly east of KROC. Saturday...Mainly VFR. Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Sunday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... A cold front will stall to our west today, with a southwest push of wind across the Lower Great Lakes that generally will remain 10 knots or less through the day as lake breeze circulations become established with the inland warming. A light chop will be found on the northeast portions of the Lakes. Tonight a wave of deepening surface low pressure on this stalled front, advancing from the Ohio Valley to northwest of the Lower Great Lakes will bring an increase in the southwest winds late tonight and into Thursday morning. Sustained southwest winds well over 15 knots will bring likely small craft advisories to the Lower Great Lakes Thursday. These winds will veer to westerly and then northwesterly tomorrow night behind the cold front, with ample speed to support waves of 4 feet or great on Lake Ontario deep into Thursday night. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...Thomas NEAR TERM...Thomas SHORT TERM...SW/TMA LONG TERM...EAJ/TMA AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...Thomas
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 513 AM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025 NYZ008-011>014-020-021-190915- Lewis-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany- 513 AM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Showers and thunderstorms today could bring heavy downpours of rain producing poor drainage ponding of water. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. A strong cold front will cross the region on Thursday, with isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms possible with damaging winds the main threat. Additionally...there is increasing confidence of elevated heat and humidity levels beginning Sunday and lasting through at least the middle part of next week. Heat index values are anticipated to climb well into the 90s and possibly even touch triple digits in some spots. Please continue to monitor the forecast for updates on this potential. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-190915- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lower Niagara River- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 513 AM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. There is a marginal risk for strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday, with the main threat damaging wind gusts. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ001>007-010-019-085-190915- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson- Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie- 513 AM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Showers and thunderstorms today could bring heavy downpours of rain producing poor drainage ponding of water. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Strengthening southwest winds late tonight and Thursday will bring increasing wave heights producing an elevated risk for rip currents. A strong cold front will cross the region on Thursday, with isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms possible with damaging winds the main threat. Additionally...there is increasing confidence of elevated heat and humidity levels beginning Sunday and lasting through at least the middle part of next week. Heat index values are anticipated to climb well into the 90s and possibly even touch triple digits in some spots. Please continue to monitor the forecast for updates on this potential. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 55 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:27 UTC.
14 flash flood, 6 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Water flowing down Sand Hill Road over US Route 62 in Gowanda.
Report of numerous streets in Gowanda with flooding, including Route 39.
Several reports of flooded roads in Canandaigua.
Two buildings flooded in Farmington due to heavy rain.
Water over Irish Road in Ripley due to flash flooding.
Spotter reported almost 1.00 inch of rainfall in 20 minutes.
Water flooding entire building west of Canandaigua.
Rochester ASOS reported 0.85 inches in 14 minutes.
Rochester ASOS reported 1.44 inches in 22 minutes.
Numerous reports of flooded roads and flooded underpasses in Rochester.
NY332/RT21 closed due to flooding in Canandaigua.
RT5/RT20 closed due to flooding in downtown Canandaigua.
Brooks Ave. closed due to flooding.
Several roads and basements flooded around the area.
Route 251 closed due to water over the roadway.
Water rescues occurred between Avon and Lima.
NYS Thruway/I-90 at exit 46 flooded.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, June 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1273889, 1273896, 1273901, 1273905, 1273912, 1273925, 1273921, 1273926, 1273927, 1273929, 1273933, 1273937, 1273941, 1273945, 1273950, 1273956, 1273954, 1273955, 1273958, 1273959.