A shortwave trough and attendant surface cold front impinging on a weak shear, but very warm and moisture-laden atmosphere led to the development of showers and thunderstorms late in the day into the evening hours which produced isolated severe winds and flash flooding.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BUF wrote it up.
A shortwave trough and attendant surface cold front impinging on a weak shear, but very warm and moisture-laden atmosphere led to the development of showers and thunderstorms late in the day into the evening hours which produced isolated severe winds and flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 6:36 PM EST, 9 minutes earlier.
<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
<meta charset="utf-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
<title>Service Notice</title>
<link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
<main class="wrap">
<section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
<div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
<h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
<p id="message1">
The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
</p>
<p id="message2">
Please try again in a few minutes.
</p>
<p class="small" id="detail">
If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
</p>
</section>
</main>
<script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 531 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 NYZ001>004-010-011-172145- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Erie-Genesee- 531 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ005-172145- Northern Cayuga- 531 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Heat Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ012>014-019>021-085-172145- Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany- Southern Erie- 531 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ008-172145- Lewis- 531 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall Thursday, with strong gusty winds and localized heavy rainfall the primary hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ006-007-172145- Oswego-Jefferson- 531 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Heat Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall Thursday, with strong gusty winds and localized heavy rainfall the primary hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-172145- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lower Niagara River- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 531 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf SLZ022-024-172145- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 531 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Thursday, with strong gusty winds and locally higher waves the primary hazard. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf Hitchcock
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 122 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:47 UTC.
5 flash flood, 3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Water flowing across a portion of County Road 29 in Alma.
Flash flooding reported on State Route 417 in the Town of Genesee.
Flash flooding reported on State Route 417 in Bolivar.
Water flowing across Broad Street in Richburg.
Water flowing over the road on State Route 21 in Andover.
Trees and wires downed in the town of Wolcott.
Trees and wires downed around the town of Red Creek.
Trees and wires downed in the town of Fair Haven.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1286821, 1286822, 1286823, 1286824, 1286825, 1286834, 1286857, 1286860.