NWS Binghamton, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 14, 8:08 PM EST, 2 hours 20 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 14, 8:08 PM EST, 2 hours 20 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
908 PM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak warm front will cross the region overnight with isolated
rain showers. A cold front will move through Tuesday with
showers and even isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Snow showers
with light accumulations are expected Tuesday night into
Wednesday as colder air pours into the region. High pressure
will bring drier conditions Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
900 PM Update...
A small thunderstorm popped up across the northern Finger Lakes.
There was instability aloft looking at the SPC mesoanalysis
page. Models show instability aloft passes east and south
overnight with the most instability aloft over northeast PA
later tonight. Looking at model soundings it looks like the
equilibrium layer is below 20000 feet which is where the -20C
line is suggesting sub-severe storms. DCAPE values were not that
impressive either. Will add some thunder to the grids for the
overnight.
815 PM Update...
Radar shows mainly light rain showers or just sprinkles moving
into central NY and northeast PA. This activity was associated
with a low-level jet at 850 mb which was leading to warm air
advection and ascent. However, the low-level jet was moisture
starved and also there was convection south across WV, southern
PA and MD that was "stealing" moisture from this flow pattern.
Hence overnight we won't see much precipitation overnight. Radar
does show a little in the way of a few isolated cells in the
higher terrain of Steuben County suggesting upslope was
triggering a little instability aloft. This activity will remain
light and move through the region overnight.
Then for Tuesday, a decent short wave will cross the region and
force a cold front through. This will trigger plenty of showers
and even a few isolated thunderstorms as there will be some
CAPE. Interestingly enough, the winds aloft will be decent
running between 40 and 50 knots from 2 to 6 km. All model
soundings show an inverted V like sounding. This suggests some
gusty winds with any cell that can punch high enough Tuesday
afternoon. Also, wet bulb zero heights are very low around 3000
feet or lower suggesting some small hail.
Once this front passes by west to northwest low-level winds will
engulf the region as an upper level low churns over Northern new
England Tuesday night. The flow around this feature will be
moist and much colder. This moisture combined with lake
enhancement from Lake Ontario and a 290-300 degree flow pattern
will bring snow showers to much of central NY. Some
accumulations will be likely over the higher terrain north and
east of BGM as well as northern Oneida County. Winter weather
advisories may be needed for northern Oneida County for 3-6" of
snow. We highlighted this potential in our HWO. We also
messaged this in slack and social media.
In addition to the snow, wind gusts could flirt with wind
advisory levels between 45 mph and 50 mph Tuesday afternoon and
night. This is a close call as NAM suggests sub-advisory winds
with GFS suggesting low-end advisory winds. So we opted to put
wind gust potential in the HWO and message it via Slack and
social media.
215 PM Update...
Flow has switched to southerly as the mid-level ridge moves
eastward and a trough slides into the Great Lakes region from
the west. This has allowed temperatures to quickly climb into
the upper 50s to low 60s, with a few more degrees of warming
expected over the next couple of hours. NBM guidance was too
cool so had to blend in NBM90 for temps this afternoon.
A warm front moves into the region from the west this evening
ahead of the approaching trough. This will kick off rain shower
chances across the Twin Tiers this evening. There is a slight
chance some convection gets going late this evening across NEPA,
with a rumble or two of thunder possible, but severe storms are
not expected. Most of the region should stay dry through the
mid-evening hours as dry air in the lower levels of the
atmosphere should evaporate the rain before it hits the ground.
The Mohawk valley could see some rain this evening with slightly
more moisture available from the lakes. Temps tonight will be in
the low to mid 40s, thanks to continued SW flow behind the warm
front.
The upper level trough moves into the region Tuesday morning,
pushing a weak cold front in from the west. The initial airmass
behind the front is not drastically cold, but will increase low
and mid level lapse rates as the surface warms. This will allow
for CAPE to develop along and east of I-81 in the afternoon.
Thunderstorms with gusty winds will be possible. This matches up
with SPC guidance as this area is progged for general
thunderstorms. Temps will not be too warm, climbing into the low
to mid 50s, but cold air aloft will allow for strong enough
lapse rates to get some low topped convection going. Colder air
spills into the region from the NW later in the afternoon,
dropping temps to the upper 30s to low 40s by 6pm. Showers
continue through the evening and overnight hours, changing to a
rain/snow mix in the early evening and all snow by midnight.
Winds will increase Tuesday afternoon as there will be decent
enough mixing at the surface to bring stronger winds to the
surface. 30-35kt gusts will be possible across much of the
region in the afternoon and evening hours. Winds remain active
Tuesday night, with gusts in the 20kt range possible into the
morning hours.
QPF amounts today and Tuesday look to be light, with a trace to
0.10 inches of rain possible. Snowfall amounts Tuesday night
will be light and relegated to mostly higher elevations along
and north of the Southern Tier. 1-2 inches of snow will be
possible by Wednesday morning for higher elevations south of the
Mohawk Valley and northern Oneida county. The lower elevations
across the aforementioned area could see a trace to a half inch
of snow. This snow will stick to elevated surfaces and grassy
areas. Roads are not expected to see major impacts outside of
some isolated slick spots.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM Update...
The passing of a cold front will bring scattered mixed rain and
snow showers across the Central NY and NE PA going into
Wednesday. As the front sweeps by, high temperatures will drop
from the mid to upper 50s on Tuesday to the low to mid 40s
Wednesday, and precipitation continues into Wednesday. Higher
elevations in Central NY, such as the hills south of Onondaga
and Madison counties, as well as northern Oneida County, could
receive a few inches of snowfall through Wednesday evening.
Precipitation will taper off Wednesday evening, and high
pressure builds in overnight.
Thursday's high temperatures recover a little, increasing into
the high 40s to low 50s. High pressure continues building into
the area, resulting in a precipitation free day Thursday and
Thursday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 PM Update...
It'll start feeling quite like springtime for the long term
period. Ridging builds over the Northeast, allowing for warm,
southerly flow to increase temperatures into the low to mid 60s
on Friday. Another system approaches Friday night. A weak warm
front passes through, which will result in our area being deep
into the warm sector, and getting rain showers. As of now, we're
following NBM guidance since this is 5-6 days out, but modeled
temperatures surge into the mid 60s to low 70s Saturday. This
system's cold front sweeps across the area Saturday afternoon.
It's too far out in time to start looking at severe parameters
and likelihood, but it's fairly confident to maybe see
thunderstorms and moderate rainfall Saturday as the front passes
through. After the passage of the cold front Saturday, high
pressure from the north builds in, and temperatures decrease
into the mid to upper 50s Sunday, and will be precipitation
free, as of right now, thanks to the high pressure.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF forecast for
the NY terminals. Scattered showers moving through this evening
are expected to be light with no associated restrictions.
Farther to the south, scattered showers are also expected around
AVP, and there is the potential for borderline MVFR restrictions
with this activity, but confidence is low. There is also a low
chance of thunder for AVP this evening, but again confidence is
low as the best chance for thunder will be south of the
terminal.
Scattered showers are expected to develop for all terminals
tomorrow afternoon and continue to be around through the rest of
the TAF. Isolated thunderstorms are possible as well, but
confidence is too low to include this far out. Near the end of
the TAF, ceilings are expected to lower with possible MVFR
restrictions, especially around RME, SYR and ITH as winds start
to become more northwesterly off of Lake Ontario. As cold air
filters in rain showers are expected to mix with and change to
snow showers shortly after the end of the TAF period which can
lead to additional restrictions.
Winds pick up across all terminals tomorrow morning, with
westerly gusts of 25-30kts late morning into the afternoon.
Outlook...
Tuesday night... Scattered rain showers changing to snow.
restrictions possible at ITH/SYR/RME.
Wednesday...Scattered rain and snow showers possible with
associated restrictions.
Thursday and Friday...Likely VFR.
Saturday...Chance of showers and thunderstorms with associated
restrictions.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...DJN/JTC
NEAR TERM...DJN/JTC
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...DK/JTC