A weak disturbance rounded a ridge centered over the Rocky Mountains and Desert Southwest on September 9th. Along with increasing surface moisture, this resulted in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across central and eastern NM.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
A weak disturbance rounded a ridge centered over the Rocky Mountains and Desert Southwest on September 9th. Along with increasing surface moisture, this resulted in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across central and eastern NM. One thunderstorm produced a severe wind gust of 63 mph at Tucumcari Municipal Airport as it moved through the site. Shower and thunderstorm activity slowly tapered off across central New Mexico overnight.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 9, 1:12 PM MST, 3 hours 9 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 212 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 159 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025 - Isolated showers and storms the western and central high terrain and eastern plains this afternoon and evening may produce strong outflow wind gusts and small to medium sized hail. - Storm chances increase in coverage Wednesday through Friday, with the highest rainfall expected in the northwest. Strong to severe storms may produce gusty outflow winds and large hail. There will be a low risk of flash flooding in western and northern areas as well. - Drier weather across western and central New Mexico Saturday with scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage along and east of the central mountain chain. Storm chances will likely trend up again early next week (moderate confidence). && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025 Convection has been quick to start today despite the building ridge overhead. Models have struggled with storm initialization and therefore will likely struggle with storm evolution through the rest of the afternoon and evening. This morning's 18Z sounding at KABQ shows higher moisture to this time compared to yesterday and and an already deep boundary layer (up to nearly 500mb). As the sfc warms, DCAPE will only continue to increase, suggesting the HREF mean of 1500 j/kg of DCAPE for Albuquerque may be on the low side. This means that seemingly weak showers and storms will have the potential to produce very strong wind gusts this afternoon. Instability is much higher in the eastern plains where there is a low chance of damaging wind gusts and large hail with storms that develop. Shear is better north of I-40, but even pulsy storms that move off the Sacramento mountains into the southeast plains have the potential to produce very strong winds and localized blowing dust given the combination of steep low-level lapse rates and dry soils in the Pecos River Valley. A batch of gusty showers and storms is progged to move into the Rio Grande Valley late evening, but conditions should clear after Midnight around the whole region. The center of the H5 ridge will move northward into the TX Panhandle tomorrow afternoon at the same time that a trough digs into The Great Basin. A plume of mid-level moisture will be advected in- between the two focusing showers and storms over the western high terrain tomorrow. A light southerly breeze will develop in most areas and high based showers will mix down even stronger wind gusts as they quickly move from south to north. Models disagree on whether storms will develop along and east of the central mountain chain given dry air advection from the southeast and greater subsidence from the ridge aloft. That being said, hi-res models such as the HRRR and RRFS are showing scattered storms along and the central mountain chain, with these storms trekking northeast through the afternoon so storm chances were at least mentioned in the forecast for these areas. Given the forcing aloft, storms will be less diurnally driven than past days and may persist past Midnight in north-central and northwestern NM. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025 Sub-tropical moisture will continue streaming in from the south late week as a trough over The Great Basin slowly digs southeast. The plume of moisture will be quite concentrated across the northwest, but heavier rainfall rates may actually occur outside of this area where warmer temps allow for higher instability. While there is a low risk of flash flooding because of the moisture surge, very fast storm motions (25-35kts) should limit the duration of heavy rainfall. This can also be illustrated by high-end (90th percentile) rainfall amounts which only show 1-2" over the high terrain of the Tusas and Jemez mountains. It should be noted that precipitation will be less diurnally driven than the past couple of months due to the forcing aloft driving much of the precipitation. Rain rates will likely peak during the afternoon hours, but showers and storms could linger through the night both Thursday and Friday. The bigger threat will likely be strong to severe storms during the Thursday/Friday time period given bulk shear of 30-50kts over the Four Corners. Both instability and low-level moisture will be limiting factors for supercell development so these will be the variables to watch in the coming days. An early season Pacific front will dry the region out from west to east on Monday, but its timing remains a big question mark due to strong disagreement between the EPS and the GEFS. The EPS continues to favor a deeper and faster-moving trough with storms confined to eastern NM on Saturday while the GEFS solution would keep enough moisture around central and western areas for additional storms on Saturday afternoon. The weekend dry air intrusion will be short-lived however as increasingly active westerlies look to draw more suptropical moisture into New Mexico early next week. Both the GEFS and EPS ensemble mean PWATs show above normal moisture across all of central and northern New Mexico by Tuesday of next week so the pattern should continue to remain active. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025 Isolated to scattered showers and storms will favor areas from the Continental Divide eastward this afternoon and evening. A few storms may intensify near the TX border, but gusty outflow winds to 35kts are possible with any showers and storms around the area. A batch of showers and storms will likely move into the RGV between 00Z and 06Z this evening, creating gusty and erratic outflow winds, however confidence in exact location/timing of showers and storms today is low. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the next 7 days. Isolated to scattered showers and storms today and tomorrow will favor areas from the Continental Divide eastward, then storm activity increases across the west Thursday and Friday, with the highest coverage in the Four Corners region. Widespread wetting rainfall is likely in western and central NM, with more spotty coverage in the east. Strong wind gusts and hail will be a threat Thursday and moreso Friday in the west with stronger storms that develop. A southerly breeze with prevail around the region Wednesday through Friday, with more intermittent gusty winds at times when showers and storms mix down stronger winds aloft. After a brief decrease in storm chances next weekend, rain chances trend up again early next week as moisture surges back into the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 60 87 60 82 / 5 40 50 50 Dulce........................... 45 82 47 78 / 10 40 50 60 Cuba............................ 54 82 54 78 / 20 30 30 50 Gallup.......................... 52 85 52 81 / 10 30 20 30 El Morro........................ 52 81 53 78 / 20 40 30 50 Grants.......................... 52 84 53 81 / 20 40 30 50 Quemado......................... 53 83 53 80 / 10 20 20 20 Magdalena....................... 59 84 59 82 / 10 10 20 20 Datil........................... 53 81 54 78 / 10 20 20 30 Reserve......................... 54 88 53 84 / 5 10 20 10 Glenwood........................ 59 92 58 88 / 5 10 20 20 Chama........................... 47 76 47 72 / 20 40 40 60 Los Alamos...................... 57 80 57 78 / 20 20 20 30 Pecos........................... 54 81 54 78 / 20 20 30 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 52 80 52 77 / 10 20 20 20 Red River....................... 44 70 45 68 / 10 30 30 20 Angel Fire...................... 39 74 40 72 / 20 30 30 20 Taos............................ 50 83 51 79 / 20 20 30 20 Mora............................ 49 79 49 76 / 20 30 30 20 Espanola........................ 56 87 57 85 / 20 20 20 20 Santa Fe........................ 58 82 58 80 / 20 20 20 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 56 85 57 83 / 20 20 20 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 66 89 66 87 / 20 10 20 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 63 91 64 89 / 20 10 20 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 62 93 63 90 / 20 10 20 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 64 91 65 89 / 20 10 20 10 Belen........................... 60 92 60 90 / 20 10 10 10 Bernalillo...................... 62 92 63 90 / 20 10 20 10 Bosque Farms.................... 59 92 60 90 / 20 10 20 10 Corrales........................ 63 92 63 90 / 20 10 20 10 Los Lunas....................... 60 92 61 90 / 20 10 20 10 Placitas........................ 62 87 62 86 / 20 20 20 10 Rio Rancho...................... 63 91 63 89 / 20 10 20 10 Socorro......................... 63 95 63 91 / 10 10 10 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 57 83 57 82 / 20 10 20 10 Tijeras......................... 59 85 59 83 / 20 10 20 10 Edgewood........................ 54 85 55 84 / 20 20 20 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 52 87 52 85 / 20 20 20 10 Clines Corners.................. 56 82 55 80 / 20 20 20 5 Mountainair..................... 56 85 57 83 / 20 20 10 10 Gran Quivira.................... 56 85 56 83 / 20 20 10 10 Carrizozo....................... 61 87 61 85 / 10 20 20 5 Ruidoso......................... 57 79 55 78 / 10 20 20 5 Capulin......................... 52 82 55 80 / 10 20 30 0 Raton........................... 50 85 52 82 / 10 30 30 5 Springer........................ 50 87 53 85 / 20 30 30 0 Las Vegas....................... 52 82 52 80 / 20 30 30 10 Clayton......................... 60 90 62 87 / 10 10 20 0 Roy............................. 56 86 57 83 / 10 20 30 0 Conchas......................... 61 92 62 89 / 10 20 20 0 Santa Rosa...................... 57 88 58 86 / 10 20 20 0 Tucumcari....................... 60 90 60 89 / 20 10 20 0 Clovis.......................... 62 92 60 91 / 20 10 20 0 Portales........................ 62 93 60 91 / 20 10 20 0 Fort Sumner..................... 61 92 60 89 / 20 10 20 0 Roswell......................... 64 94 63 92 / 20 10 10 0 Picacho......................... 58 90 56 87 / 20 20 10 0 Elk............................. 57 87 55 85 / 20 20 10 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...16
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
401 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
NMZ226-239-092230-
South Central Mountains NM-Eastern Lincoln County NM-
401 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY
UNTIL 430 PM MDT...
At 401 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Arabela, or 26 miles northeast of Ruidoso, moving southeast at 5 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.
Locations impacted include...
Arabela.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
&&
LAT...LON 3360 10531 3363 10524 3354 10502 3345 10516
3344 10528 3352 10531
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 327DEG 5KT 3356 10525
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
24Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 403 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025 NMZ233-234-092230- Quay County NM-Guadalupe County NM- 403 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN GUADALUPE AND WEST CENTRAL QUAY COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM MDT... At 403 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8 miles southeast of Newkirk, or 27 miles east of Santa Rosa, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Locations impacted include... Montoya and Newkirk. This includes Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 294 and 317. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening weather conditions. && LAT...LON 3483 10433 3505 10438 3515 10398 3489 10389 TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 249DEG 16KT 3497 10420 MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH 24
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
428 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
NMZ233-234-092300-
Quay County NM-Guadalupe County NM-
428 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN GUADALUPE AND WEST
CENTRAL QUAY COUNTIES UNTIL 5 PM MDT...
At 428 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Montoya, or 24 miles southwest of Tucumcari,
moving northeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.
Locations impacted include...
Montoya.
This includes Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 304 and 320.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
&&
LAT...LON 3506 10422 3518 10405 3520 10399 3502 10384
3491 10409
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 235DEG 11KT 3501 10411
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
24The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 61 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:22 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A 63 mph wind gust was observed at Tucumcari Municipal Airport as a severe thunderstorm moved through the site.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, September 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1282326.