Hail and Damaging Wind in New Mexico, September 29, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
Issued by National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
126 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1237 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025

 - Thunderstorms will return to the higher terrain of New Mexico
   this afternoon, but dry conditions are expected area-wide
   beginning Tuesday.

 - Temperatures will climb to around 5 to 8 degrees above normal
   by Thursday, as a drier air mass takes over. Southerly winds
   may also become a little breezy Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1237 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025

An upper level trough that has been draped over NM the past few
days will lift out of the region tonight. Before the trough exits,
there is still a 20-30% chance for showers and storms thru late
this evening mainly north of a line from Silver City to T or C and
Alamogordo. PWATs are still close to 1" with light steering flow
so a couple cells may produce very localized heavy rainfall. Some
near-term hi-res model guidance is hinting that a weak outflow
boundary from these storms may drift south toward Deming and Las
Cruces this evening with a slight chance for additional showers
and broken cloud cover to form. Otherwise, the remainder of the
night is likely to see gradually clearing skies with perhaps a
few patchy areas of low cigs near the high terrain.

Weak upper level ridging is expected to crest over the region
Tuesday with warming temps, light winds, and slightly lower
humidity. The upper ridge will break down quickly Tuesday night
then give way to zonal flow Wednesday. Temps will continue to
trend warmer with even drier air sliding into the region. A
stronger upper level ridge will build over northern MX Thursday
and Friday with temps trending around 5-10 degrees above normal.
Precip chances Wednesday thru Friday will be near zero with high
confidence. Southerly winds may trend a tad breezy toward this
weekend as the next upper level trough moves into the Great Basin.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025

Patchy MVFR cigs late this morning around Deming, Silver City,
and T or C will continue lifting thru 1pm. Showers and storms will
initiate around the high terrain near Silver City and Alamogordo
after 2pm then drift erratically north and east into nearby
valleys thru late this afternoon. A few cells may form on outflow
boundaries farther to the south toward T or C and Las Cruces this
evening. Direct hits will be capable of strong gusty winds and
brief heavy rain. Mid level clouds lingering thru midnight will
gradually clear thereafter.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1237 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025

There are no significant fire weather concerns through at least
Friday. A few showers and storms over portions of the area thru
this evening will have potential to produce small footprints of
heavy rainfall. Drier air will push into even more of the region
Tuesday. However, there will be very low chances of showers or
storms over the high terrain within the Gila and Sacramento Mts.
Wednesday thru Friday will feature an upper level high building
over northern MX with increasing temps, light winds, and lowering
humidity each day. The ridge is likely to break down quickly by
Saturday as an upper level trough approaches from the Great Basin.
Southerly winds increase over the weekend with minimum humidity
falling into the 15 to 20% range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  63  85  64  89 /  10   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            52  79  54  83 /  10   0   0   0
Las Cruces               58  81  58  84 /  10   0   0   0
Alamogordo               56  80  58  83 /  20   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               40  59  42  63 /  30  10   0   0
Truth or Consequences    58  79  57  83 /  20   0   0   0
Silver City              52  75  53  78 /  20  10   0   0
Deming                   58  83  57  87 /  10   0   0   0
Lordsburg                60  82  58  83 /  20   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       63  82  64  86 /  10   0   0   0
Dell City                55  82  56  86 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             60  86  62  89 /  10   0   0   0
Loma Linda               55  76  58  80 /  10   0   0   0
Fabens                   59  84  61  88 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             59  81  59  85 /  10   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           59  80  62  84 /  10   0   0   0
Jornada Range            57  79  58  83 /  10   0   0   0
Hatch                    58  82  58  86 /  20   0   0   0
Columbus                 59  83  60  87 /  10   0   0   0
Orogrande                55  78  57  82 /  10   0   0   0
Mayhill                  45  70  48  75 /  30  10   0   0
Mescalero                44  71  46  75 /  30  10   0   0
Timberon                 44  68  46  71 /  20   0   0   0
Winston                  47  73  46  76 /  30  10   0   0
Hillsboro                54  79  54  83 /  30  10   0   0
Spaceport                55  78  56  82 /  20   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             48  76  47  79 /  30  10   0   0
Hurley                   54  78  53  81 /  20   0   0   0
Cliff                    55  82  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               52  78  52  81 /  10   0   0   0
Faywood                  55  76  55  80 /  30   0   0   0
Animas                   58  83  57  85 /  30   0   0   0
Hachita                  57  81  56  84 /  20   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           57  83  57  85 /  30   0   0   0
Cloverdale               55  78  56  81 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

FORECASTER...99

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1036 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     Flash Flood      2 SE Ft Hancock         31.28N 105.82W
09/28/2025                   Hudspeth           TX   Emergency Mngr

            Flooding from short arroyos draining from
            the mesa to the north caused flooding in
            colonias southeast of Fort Hancock, with
            water surrounding at least one home on
            Blackfoot Rd.

0230 PM     Flash Flood      Ft Hancock              31.30N 105.85W
09/28/2025                   Hudspeth           TX   Emergency Mngr

            Unnamed arroyo flooded across Ross Ave, East
            El Paso St, and Helms Rd, too deep to safely
            cross.

0514 PM     Flash Flood      Hueco Tanks             31.92N 106.04W
09/28/2025                   El Paso            TX   Emergency Mngr

            Corrects previous flash flood report from 10
            NE Montana Vista. Visitors stuck at Hueco
            Tanks State Park Historic Site from Flash
            Flooding at low water crossings.

0334 PM     Hail             5 NW Alamogordo         32.94N 106.02W
09/28/2025  M0.88 Inch       Otero              NM   Cocorahs

            Cocorahs observer NM-OT-8. Mostly dime-sized
            hail, with some nickels mixed in. Time
            approximated.

0339 PM     Hail             4 NW La Luz             33.01N 105.98W
09/28/2025  M1.00 Inch       Otero              NM   Cocorahs

            Cocorahs observer NM-OT-46. Duration of hail
            about 7 minutes.

0340 PM     Hail             5 W La Luz              32.98N 106.02W
09/28/2025  M1.25 Inch       Otero              NM   Public

            Via social media, with photo.

0344 PM     Hail             4 NW La Luz             33.01N 105.99W
09/28/2025  M1.00 Inch       Otero              NM   Public

            Via social media, with photo.

0220 PM     Hail             8 NNE Antelope Wells    31.47N 108.51W
09/28/2025  M1.50 Inch       Hidalgo            NM   Public

            Hail just under the size of golf balls
            reported at Hatchet Farms.

&&

MPH