Flash Flood in New Mexico, May 31, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1133 AM MDT Sat May 31 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1126 AM MDT Sat May 31 2025

- Deeper moisture over New Mexico today will contribute to a high
  threat of burn scar flash flooding during the afternoon. A Flash
  Flood Watch is in effect for the Ruidoso burn scar area.

- A few dry storms with little to no rainfall and erratic
  downburst winds will develop tomorrow over the Continental
  Divide and Rio Grande Valley. These storms have the potential to
  start new fires.

- Two Pacific storm systems, the first late Sunday into Monday and
  a second late Tuesday into Wednesday, look to bring more
  widespread precipitation and a higher threat for burn scar flash
  flooding.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 727 AM MDT Sat May 31 2025

Outflow from storms pushed smoke from active fires over northern
Mexico last evening northward up the Rio Grande Valley this
morning. Haze is being reported with lowered visibility from
Socorro to Belen and into portions of the southwestern ABQ metro
area. Satellite imagery is also showing this area of smoke and
haze following the terrain of the Rio Grande Valley quite well as
the sun comes up. Have added this into the weather forecast for
this morning with conditions looking to clear out by late morning
and just before noon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 213 AM MDT Sat May 31 2025

An upper level low will remain positioned just west of the Baja
Peninsula while another upper low slides southward across the
Midwest today. In between, upper level high pressure remains over
much of NM. East canyon winds were not as strong overnight, so
richer low level moisture is struggling to push westward, but an
outflow boundary emanating from Mexico is pushing better low level
moisture northward across the lower Rio Grande Valley and Southwest
Mountains. Though some of this low level moisture will mix out
today, plenty of mid level moisture will persist. Models continue to
advertise large inverted-V soundings this afternoon west of the
Central Mountain Chain. Thus, any showers or thunderstorms that
develop in this area this afternoon will likely be a mix of wet and
dry storms (though confidence is moderate to high that they will be
mostly dry) with gusty outflow winds. Meanwhile, another round of
showers and thunderstorms are expected along and east of the central
mountain chain with locally heavy rainfall, small hail and gusty
winds. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Ruidoso area burn
scars. Latest guidance suggests between 0.25 and 0.50 inches of rain
is most likely, but a reasonable worst case scenario (90th
percentile) would be between 0.75 and 1.00 inch of rainfall. Since
this area has received rainfall over the last few days, soils are
primed for increased runoff this afternoon. Storms across eastern NM
will move toward the east-southeast through the afternoon and early
evening hours. A secondary area of showers and thunderstorms is
expected to move into NE NM from Colorado in the evening as
northwest flow aloft continues in this area. These storms should
diminish shortly after midnight.

On Sunday, the Baja low finally ejects toward southwest AZ. PWATs
will increase throughout the day and will be more than 2 standard
deviations above normal across western NM by late afternoon.
However, through the day, storm coverage should remain in the
isolated to scattered categories and focused across the high terrain
as the main forcing with the low arrives Sunday night into Monday.
Nonetheless, all storms will be of the 'wet' variety. Another round
of storms is expected for the Ruidoso area per latest CAMs Sunday
afternoon, so concern is increasing for burn scar flash flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 213 AM MDT Sat May 31 2025

The upper low that has been spinning off the southern CA and Baja CA
coastline finally gets picked up northeast over the Desert SW and
Four Corners region Sunday night into Monday due to another trough
digging south and closing off into a 2nd low along the California
coast. As the first low moves towards the Four Corners, while
opening up into a trough Sunday night into Monday morning, it will
result in the widespread shower and thunderstorm activity across
western and central NM due to picking up subtropical and tropical
moisture from the remnants of Allen in the eastern Pacific. This
would bring much needed precipitation to this part of the state due
to the fact that these areas are currently experiencing severe to
exceptional drought. Higher shower and storm coverage shifts to
northern and eastern NM Monday afternoon and evening as the opening
trough axis merges with a larger scale trough over the northern
Rockies and Great Plains. In terms of the risk of flash flooding on
the area burn scars, the threat for the Ruidoso burn scars looks to
be focused during the mid morning to early afternoon before drier
southwest flow along and west of the trough axis moves into the
area. The greatest storm coverage and higher threat for flash
flooding on the HPCC burn scar looks to be during the afternoon to
early evening hours as the trough axis swings through that part of
the state. Storm motion will be quick to the northeast at around 20
to 35 mph, so it will take training and repeated rounds of showers
and thunderstorms to result in flash flooding on the burn scars.
With the higher cloud cover and storm coverage during the day on
Monday, temperatures will be much cooler and 6 to 12 degrees below
average across western and central NM and near to slightly below
average across eastern NM for early June.

Shower and storm chances will remain confined to far northern NM
after sunset Monday into Tuesday morning as the trough exits from
the central Rockies into the central Great Plains. As this occurs it
will send a backdoor front into northeast NM Tuesday morning
resulting in even cooler highs, 10 to 15 degrees below average. The
aforementioned 2nd upper low off the CA coast Monday dives southeast
into southern AZ come Tuesday evening. Lift ahead of this low, along
with weak troughing over the central and southern Rockies and well
above average moisture (indicated by PWATs around 0.6 to 0.8
inches) will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms across
northern NM during the afternoon and evening. Highs on Tuesday will
generally be around 5 to 10 degrees below average for most, except
near average across southeast NM. Convection over Colorado and
northern NM will help to push the backdoor front through all of
eastern NM and likely through the gaps of the central mountain chain
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Meanwhile the upper low over
southern AZ Tuesday evening opens up into a trough moving into NM
Wednesday morning. This will tap into the well above average
moisture still in place across the state resulting in another round
of widespread showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning shifting more toward northern and eastern NM Wednesday
afternoon and evening as the trough axis shifts east into the High
Plains. With the higher storm coverage and cloud cover, temperatures
will remain cool with highs 10 to 15 degrees below average for most.

Drier and hotter weather is favored late in the work week into next
weekend as the upper high over Mexico strengthens to around 594 dam
at 500 mb and builds north. PWATs drop to 0.3 to 0.5 inches across
western and central NM. Higher moisture with PWATs around 0.8 to 1
inch look to remain across eastern NM, so this will keep the chance
for isolated showers and storms across this part of the state.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Sat May 31 2025

Smoke and haze from fires in northern Mexico continue to spread
MVFR visibility across swaths of the Rio Grande Valley from KONM
to KABQ and KAEG this hour. This is still expected to mix out over
the next couple of hours, and have maintained a mention of it at
KABQ and KAEG thru to 20Z. Otherwise, thunderstorms are developing
over the high terrain over central and western NM this hour.
Storms will be slow moving with relatively short lifespans.
Subsequent storm activity moving southeastward over adjacent lower
elevations will continue through the later afternoon and early
evening hours. Localized MVFR conditions from rainfall and gusty
winds will accompany these storms. Conditions clear out late this
evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 213 AM MDT Sat May 31 2025

Abundant mid level moisture remains on tap for today, though any low
level moisture moving into western NM this morning will largely mix
out this afternoon. For now, expect a mix of wet and dry storms
across western NM, with 'wetter' storms likely further south (zone
109). Gusty and erratic winds are likely with any storm. Showers and
thunderstorms will also develop along and east of the Central
Mountain Chain this afternoon with locally heavy rainfall, gusty
winds and small hail a concern. Moisture will continue to increase
Sunday and Monday as an upper low west of the Baja ejects
northeastward across crosses just west of the Four Corners early
Monday. Widespread wetting rainfall and isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected Sunday night and Monday. Another upper
level low will arrive late Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing for
widespread storm coverage to continue through mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  92  55  93  61 /   0   0   5  60
Dulce...........................  87  44  88  47 /  10   5  10  40
Cuba............................  85  51  86  52 /   5  10  20  60
Gallup..........................  89  48  89  51 /   5   0  10  80
El Morro........................  84  52  84  50 /  10  10  30  80
Grants..........................  88  49  88  51 /  10   5  20  70
Quemado.........................  85  53  84  51 /  10   5  30  70
Magdalena.......................  84  59  85  57 /  20  20  20  70
Datil...........................  83  54  83  52 /  20  10  30  70
Reserve.........................  90  48  89  49 /  10  10  20  70
Glenwood........................  92  54  92  52 /  10  10  20  60
Chama...........................  79  44  81  46 /  10  10  20  30
Los Alamos......................  81  56  82  57 /  20  10  20  40
Pecos...........................  81  52  83  54 /  40  10  30  40
Cerro/Questa....................  80  49  81  53 /  20  20  40  20
Red River.......................  70  41  72  46 /  20  20  40  30
Angel Fire......................  73  38  76  44 /  30  10  30  20
Taos............................  83  46  84  50 /  10  10  20  20
Mora............................  76  46  77  49 /  40  20  50  30
Espanola........................  88  54  90  57 /  20  10  20  40
Santa Fe........................  83  57  85  57 /  20  10  20  40
Santa Fe Airport................  87  55  88  57 /  20  10  20  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  90  63  92  63 /   5  10  10  60
Albuquerque Heights.............  91  64  93  62 /   5  10  10  60
Albuquerque Valley..............  93  61  95  62 /   5  10  10  60
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  92  63  93  63 /   5  10  10  60
Belen...........................  94  57  95  59 /   5  10  10  50
Bernalillo......................  93  60  94  62 /   5  10  10  60
Bosque Farms....................  93  57  95  58 /   5  10  10  60
Corrales........................  93  62  95  62 /   5  10  10  60
Los Lunas.......................  93  59  95  59 /   5  10  10  50
Placitas........................  88  60  90  62 /   5  10  10  60
Rio Rancho......................  93  62  94  62 /   5  10  10  60
Socorro.........................  95  62  97  64 /  10  10  10  60
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  84  56  85  56 /  10  10  10  50
Tijeras.........................  86  58  88  57 /  10  10  10  50
Edgewood........................  86  53  88  54 /  20  10  20  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  86  50  89  51 /  20  10  20  40
Clines Corners..................  81  51  81  53 /  20  10  20  40
Mountainair.....................  85  54  87  54 /  10  10  10  50
Gran Quivira....................  84  54  86  54 /  20  10  20  50
Carrizozo.......................  86  61  89  61 /  30  10  20  30
Ruidoso.........................  77  57  80  56 /  60  10  50  40
Capulin.........................  77  47  79  53 /  20  40  40  20
Raton...........................  82  49  82  51 /  20  30  50  20
Springer........................  82  49  82  52 /  20  30  50  20
Las Vegas.......................  79  49  80  52 /  40  20  40  30
Clayton.........................  83  54  82  59 /  10  30   5  10
Roy.............................  81  51  81  55 /  20  30  20  20
Conchas.........................  88  57  89  61 /  30  30  20  20
Santa Rosa......................  86  56  86  59 /  30  20  20  20
Tucumcari.......................  88  57  88  62 /  20  30   5  20
Clovis..........................  88  60  89  64 /  20  30   5  20
Portales........................  89  59  90  62 /  20  30   5  10
Fort Sumner.....................  89  57  91  61 /  20  30  10  20
Roswell.........................  93  65  98  69 /  20  10  10  20
Picacho.........................  87  59  90  61 /  30  10  30  20
Elk.............................  85  57  88  58 /  50  10  40  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 5 PM MDT this afternoon for NMZ226.

&&

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...24