A weakening upper level disturbance moves northeast across southern and eastern during the morning and midday hours of May 17th. Mid level moisture combined with daytime heating resulted in the development of isolated virga showers across these aforementioned areas.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
A weakening upper level disturbance moves northeast across southern and eastern during the morning and midday hours of May 17th. Mid level moisture combined with daytime heating resulted in the development of isolated virga showers across these aforementioned areas. One of these virga showers resulted in a brief 58 mph wind gust at Sierra Blanca Regional Airport. Dry and breezy southwest winds quickly developed across the entire region in the wake of the exiting disturbance.
Key Words; Virga, High Wind Gust.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 17, 10:25 AM MST, 2 hours 30 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1125 AM MDT Sat May 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1121 AM MDT Sat May 17 2025 - Strong winds and dry conditions will lead to critical fire weather today through Monday. Winds will be strongest Sunday and Monday when gusts of 35 to 50 mph will be common, leading to an increased risk of rapid fire spread. - Scattered rain and high mountain snow showers will develop over northwestern to north central New Mexico Sunday and Monday with a few thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and early evening hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 220 AM MDT Sat May 17 2025 A weak upper-low over Baja California will eject into AZ this morning, eventually moving over central NM by the afternoon. This will help to increase wind speeds, mainly over the southern portion of the forecast area. Winds will mainly be a concern for fire weather although enhancement via virga showers may create locally stronger winds that pick up dust at times. Hi-res models are picking up on Lincoln and Torrence counties as the most likely areas to experience a virga shower so a mention of sprinkles was added to the forecast in these areas. While very unlikely, the there is a non- zero risk of a stray lightning strike or two in these same areas thanks to just enough mid-level cold air underneath the upper-low to allow for some slightly deeper convection to develop. Winds trend down Saturday evening, although mountain areas and mesas will continue to remain breezy (winds of 10 to 20 mph) through the overnight. The next storm system will quickly take shape to the west tonight as a N/S oriented jet streak forces and upper-low to dig into the Great Basin. The jet streak will round the base of the trough and push into New Mexico by Sunday afternoon, creating widespread gusty conditions. Wind speeds have trended up recently and NAEFs mean winds are now showing speeds above the 90th percentile across the entire forecast area, with winds approaching the 90th percentile in the south-central mtns near Ruidoso. As a result, some blowing dust will likely get lofted, including from White Sands given the southwesterly wind direction. Showers and even a few storms will focus across far northwestern NM on Sunday afternoon, although precipitation amounts will generally be below 0.1". && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 220 AM MDT Sat May 17 2025 Another unseasonably cold 549dm H5 low and associated 110kt polar jet will enter the Great Basin from the PacNW Sunday night. This speed max is modeled to cross northern NM Monday with a potent Pacific cold front. The recent NAEFS has H5 heights and H7 temps near -2 standard deviation below climo which translates to a chilly day for mid to late May. Max temps will be roughly 10 to 15F below normal across northern, central, and western NM with blustery winds, increasing cloud cover, and perhaps a few showers and storms across northern NM. Latest MOS guidance trended stronger with wind speeds and a couple Wind Advisories may be warranted with gusts >50 mph favored from near Clines Corners south to Corona and Ruidoso. The latest NBM even shows probabilities for sustained winds >30 mph in the 30 to 50% range for this area. The rest of next week will feature a strong warming trend with the warmest temps so far this spring for the entire region by Friday. Surface winds will be a tad breezy again beginning Wednesday with gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range each afternoon. Eastern NM will likely see several easterly wind shifts with low level moisture sloshing westward each morning. Otherwise, an overall tranquil pattern is in store with increasing heat risk across Chaves County where highs may reach 100F for the 1st time this year by late week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 AM MDT Sat May 17 2025 Scattered virga showers are crossing south-central NM and advancing into southeastern NM this hour. A few erratic gusty winds and a stray isolated cloud-to-ground lightning strike is possible with this activity before clearer conditions push in from the southwest later this afternoon and evening. Prevailing southwesterly winds this afternoon with gusts of 25 to 35 kts before diminishing this evening and overnight. Stronger prevailing southwest winds return Sunday in the morning, peaking in strength Sunday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 AM MDT Sat May 17 2025 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY... Critical fire weather conditions today will focus in south-central New Mexico where up to 10 hours of single digit relative humidity will aid with the drying of fuels. The winds are marginal for rapid fire spread, however a few gusty virga showers could bring wind gusts as high as 50 mph down to the surface briefly. There is a very low chance (<10%) of a stray lightning strike or two in south- central and east-central NM with this isolated convective activity. Sunday will be windier than today and forecast wind speeds have continued to trend higher. The strongest gusts (40 to 55 mph) will focus for areas along and just east of the central mountain chain, although winds will still be strong enough for the development of critical fire weather in southwest and central NM. Therefore, the Fire Weather Watch was upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for all areas and no additional expansions where made since fuel status remains unfavorable for rapid fire spread in the eastern and northeast plains. Showers and a few storms will focus over areas along and north of I-40 on Monday, however humidities will struggle to increase much in south-central NM where another round of critical fire weather conditions may develop Monday afternoon. Winds decrease and temperatures trend higher mid to late next week. Critical fire weather conditions are not likely Tuesday through next Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 78 48 64 39 / 0 5 40 20 Dulce........................... 72 38 59 28 / 0 5 40 20 Cuba............................ 72 41 62 35 / 0 0 10 10 Gallup.......................... 74 36 62 32 / 0 0 10 20 El Morro........................ 71 37 61 35 / 0 0 5 10 Grants.......................... 75 36 65 34 / 0 0 0 5 Quemado......................... 72 38 67 37 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 75 46 72 42 / 10 0 0 0 Datil........................... 71 38 68 38 / 5 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 74 37 71 33 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 80 39 75 38 / 5 0 0 0 Chama........................... 66 35 53 27 / 0 0 30 10 Los Alamos...................... 72 47 64 40 / 0 0 5 5 Pecos........................... 71 43 67 41 / 5 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 68 39 61 35 / 0 0 5 0 Red River....................... 59 34 54 28 / 0 0 5 0 Angel Fire...................... 65 30 58 30 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 73 37 63 32 / 0 0 5 0 Mora............................ 70 39 64 37 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 78 45 70 41 / 0 0 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 72 45 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 76 44 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 78 53 73 50 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 80 50 76 47 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 82 48 78 46 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 80 50 75 47 / 5 0 0 0 Belen........................... 83 45 80 45 / 10 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 81 50 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 82 44 79 43 / 5 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 81 49 75 46 / 5 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 82 45 79 45 / 5 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 78 51 73 47 / 5 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 80 51 75 47 / 5 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 84 48 83 48 / 10 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 72 46 68 41 / 5 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 75 47 71 43 / 5 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 75 44 72 39 / 10 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 76 38 74 37 / 10 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 72 41 69 39 / 10 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 73 44 73 41 / 10 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 74 42 74 41 / 10 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 78 51 76 48 / 10 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 71 47 69 46 / 10 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 73 42 70 39 / 5 0 0 0 Raton........................... 77 41 73 38 / 5 0 0 0 Springer........................ 79 41 74 39 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 74 43 70 40 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 80 48 80 47 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 78 46 75 43 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 86 49 84 48 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 82 48 81 47 / 10 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 86 49 85 50 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 85 53 85 52 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 87 50 86 51 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 85 49 85 49 / 5 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 92 56 91 55 / 5 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 83 50 81 50 / 5 0 0 0 Elk............................. 79 50 77 50 / 5 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ106-124. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ106-109- 124-125. && SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...24
The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 69 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:57 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A virga shower resulted in a brief 58 mph wind gust at Sierra Blanca Regional Airport.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1245362.