Flash Flooding and Debris Flow in New Mexico, June 26 to 28, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1150 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1149 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

- Shower and storm coverage gradually lowers through Saturday, but
  slow storm motion will keep the risk for flash flooding going,
  mainly on recent burn scars.

- Another surge of monsoon moisture moves in for the first week of
  July resulting in greater coverage of showers and storms and an
  increasing flash flood threat in the days leading up to the
  Fourth of July holiday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1231 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Drier mid level air has moved into western and much of central NM
this morning thanks to the weak upper level trough moving into
Arizona with the plume of monsoon moisture situated across south
central NM and along and east of the central mountain chain. PWATs
greater than 0.7 inches look to be present along and east of the
central mountain chain and along and south of U.S. 60 in Socorro and
Catron County. With this, shower and storm coverage will look to
favor these aforementioned areas. Storms will start across the
southwest and central mountain chain midday with very slow and
erratic motion to the east-southeast during the afternoon and
evening hours. With the higher available moisture and very slow
storm motion, locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will still
exist across southern and eastern areas, including the Ruidoso area.
With CAMS and the HREF showing mean rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.25
inches across the Sacramento Mountains during the early afternoon
hours, a new Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the zone. Note,
today could end up being a more problematic day for the Ruidoso area
due to more clearing this upcoming morning, unlike the last 2 days
where dense morning cloud cover limited instability and hampered
storm development. For the HPCC burn scar, some storms do look to
develop over the scar, but the CAMs and the HREF show pretty low QPF
over the burn scar with max 3 hr ensemble amounts of 0.25 to 0.5
inches on the far eastern portion of the burn scar. These storms
will have a little more progressive motion to the east-southeast
with higher rainfall amounts over the northeast plains. This makes
sense given that the burn scar is on the western edge of the higher
moisture with much drier air just to the west. For that reason, no
Flash FLood Watch is needed for the HPCC burn scar. Showers and
storms linger across the lower RGV and far eastern plains this
evening with most activity done after midnight. Friday looks to be a
repeat of today, so another Flash Flood Watch will be needed for the
Ruidoso area. Decided to let the day shift issue this watch since
one is already in effect for today's activity and to keep things
simple. With more typical shower and storm coverage and much less
cloud cover than earlier in the week, temperatures will warm back up
close to average across western and central NM and slightly below
average across eastern NM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1231 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

An upper high will build over the region through the weekend to
near 592dam at 500mb and become centered along the AZ/NM border.
This trend will bring rising temperatures to western NM, while
sufficient moisture remains in place along/east of the central
mountain chain for scattered daytime heating triggered convection
and a continued threat for burn scar flash flooding. PWATs are
forecast to increase westward across the area Mon/Tue as the upper
high weakens and easterly low level flow increases in response to
a Pacific trough making slow eastward progress from central CA
into western NV. Expect an uptick in coverage of storms across
central and western NM Mon/Tue as a result of the moisture surge.
PWATS will continue to rise Wed/Thu as the upper high diminishes
and flow turns from the south in the mid/lower levels of the
atmosphere. Both the latest ECMWF and GFS show the potential for a
tropical moisture tap to develop late next week as the more
dominant upper high sets up along the Gulf coast and a weak
Pacific trough along the west coast steer a potential tropical
system toward the Baja Peninsula. So, expect an increasing threat
for flash flooding next week, especially on area burn scars.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop this
afternoon across southern and southeast NM. To TAF sites, eastern NM
terminals are most likely to be affected, though confidence was only
high enough at KTCC to place a TEMPO from 00z to 04z. KLVS and KROW
maintain PROB30s for TS development after 21z. MVFR conditions can
be expected in any thunderstorm, and VFR conditions are expected to
prevail elsewhere. Of all terminals in the state, KSRR shows the
highest likelihood of showers and thunderstorms based on its
proximity to a common initiation point with the Sacramento
Mountains, with a timeframe of 18z to 03z. Showers are likely to
exit the state between 04-06z, with SCT to BKN clouds remaining
across eastern NM overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1231 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Shower and storm coverage will favor southern and eastern New Mexico
today and Friday with little to no storm coverage along and west of
I-25 and along and north of U.S. 60 due to drier air aloft mixing
down to the surface during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will be
hotter and closer to average compared to the last few days due to
much less morning cloud cover. High pressure builds back overhead
for the weekend resulting in the lowest storm coverage of the period
favoring the central mountain chain and Gila Mountains midday
shifting to the nearby lower elevations and eastern plains during
the evening. The high shifts to the Four Corners region early next
week with moisture increasing from east to west behind a backdoor
front. This will result in higher shower and storm coverage
areawide. Higher shower and storm coverage will favor western and
central NM for the first few days of July as a traditional monsoon
setup develops over the desert southwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  91  55  93  56 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  86  44  88  42 /   0   0   5   0
Cuba............................  84  53  86  52 /   0   0  10   5
Gallup..........................  88  47  89  47 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  84  51  84  53 /   0   0  10   0
Grants..........................  87  50  86  50 /   5   5  10   5
Quemado.........................  85  53  81  55 /  10   5  10   5
Magdalena.......................  84  59  83  59 /  20  10  30  10
Datil...........................  83  54  82  55 /  20  10  20  10
Reserve.........................  85  50  87  50 /  10  10  20   0
Glenwood........................  88  55  89  55 /  20  10  20   5
Chama...........................  79  45  82  45 /   0   0   5   5
Los Alamos......................  81  59  83  59 /  10   5  20  10
Pecos...........................  80  54  80  56 /  20  10  30  10
Cerro/Questa....................  80  51  83  52 /  10   0  10   5
Red River.......................  71  43  72  44 /  10   5  20   5
Angel Fire......................  76  38  78  38 /  20   5  20   5
Taos............................  83  50  86  48 /  10   0  10   5
Mora............................  76  47  78  48 /  30  10  30  10
Espanola........................  87  58  90  57 /  10   5  10   5
Santa Fe........................  84  59  84  60 /  10   5  20  10
Santa Fe Airport................  86  58  87  57 /  10   5  20  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  89  65  90  66 /   5   5  20  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  90  65  90  64 /   5   5  10  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  92  63  93  62 /   5   5  10  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  91  64  91  64 /   5   5  10  10
Belen...........................  93  61  93  60 /   5   5  10  10
Bernalillo......................  92  62  93  62 /   5   5  10  10
Bosque Farms....................  92  61  93  60 /   5   5  10  10
Corrales........................  91  63  92  63 /   5   5  10  10
Los Lunas.......................  93  61  93  61 /   5   5  10  10
Placitas........................  90  63  90  63 /   5   5  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  91  64  91  63 /   5   5  10  10
Socorro.........................  92  64  92  65 /  20  10  20  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  85  57  85  57 /  10   5  20  20
Tijeras.........................  86  59  87  59 /  10   5  20  20
Edgewood........................  84  54  84  52 /  10  10  20  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  86  51  85  50 /  20  10  20  20
Clines Corners..................  81  55  80  54 /  20  10  30  20
Mountainair.....................  84  56  83  56 /  20  10  30  20
Gran Quivira....................  84  56  81  55 /  30  20  40  20
Carrizozo.......................  83  62  81  62 /  50  30  50  20
Ruidoso.........................  74  55  72  56 /  70  20  70  20
Capulin.........................  79  52  83  52 /  40  20  20  20
Raton...........................  83  51  86  51 /  30  10  20  10
Springer........................  86  52  89  51 /  30  10  20  10
Las Vegas.......................  81  52  81  52 /  30  10  30  20
Clayton.........................  87  60  90  61 /  40  30  10  20
Roy.............................  83  57  85  57 /  40  30  10  20
Conchas.........................  90  63  92  62 /  40  30  10  20
Santa Rosa......................  88  61  88  60 /  30  20  20  20
Tucumcari.......................  88  62  91  63 /  30  30  10  20
Clovis..........................  88  64  89  64 /  30  30  20  20
Portales........................  89  64  90  65 /  40  30  20  20
Fort Sumner.....................  89  63  90  62 /  30  20  20  20
Roswell.........................  89  68  92  68 /  30  20  30  20
Picacho.........................  84  60  84  60 /  50  20  60  20
Elk.............................  80  58  81  57 /  70  20  70  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226-240.

&&

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...77