Abundant monsoonal moisture resulted in scattered to numerous afternoon thunderstorms developing over the high terrain of NM before moving over surrounding lower elevations during the late afternoon and evening hours of July 16th and 17th. While a few thunderstorms became severe and produced large hail in a few spots of northeastern NM on the 16th, flash flooding over the Ruidoso area burn scars…
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
Abundant monsoonal moisture resulted in scattered to numerous afternoon thunderstorms developing over the high terrain of NM before moving over surrounding lower elevations during the late afternoon and evening hours of July 16th and 17th. While a few thunderstorms became severe and produced large hail in a few spots of northeastern NM on the 16th, flash flooding over the Ruidoso area burn scars was the main source of impacts. Swift water rescues and evacuations were ordered while flood waters and debris overflowed roads and bridges through the Village of Ruidoso, mainly on the 17th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 11:10 AM MST, 2 hours earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1210 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1155 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Scattered showers and storms today become more numerous Thursday and Friday, increasing the threat of flash flooding. Heavy rainfall is most likely in north-central and northeastern New Mexico. - Gusty outflow winds, small hail, and dangerous lightning could accompany storms each day around the area. A few storms in northeastern New Mexico may become severe both today and Thursday. - Rain chances decrease this weekend into early next week, however a minor to moderate risk of burn scar flash flooding will persist. Temperatures rise above seasonal averages early next week, creating moderate heat risk concerns in the Rio Grande Valley and eastern New Mexico. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 151 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025 The center of the H5 ridge will move directly over central NM today, which will make storm motion very slow and erratic. Overall, storm coverage will be similar to Tuesday, but storm intensity may be a tad higher with the influx of moisture from the southwest. Models have been consistent with showing a cluster of storms developing in the southwest mountains, with sfc convergence supporting its maintenance for several hours into the evening despite near- stationary storm motion. The other area to watch will be the northeastern quadrant of the state because of a frontal passage that will come southward down the High Plains. This will support the intensification of storms as they come off the Sangre de Cristo mountains and a few of these storms may become severe in the northeast plains. Most models show a rapid reduction in storm intensity as the backdoor front accelerates south and west. There is reason to suggest that a few storms could initiate in the highlands and along the central mountain chain as the front sweeps through, but they would struggle to maintain their strength for very long given that the atmosphere will be becoming increasingly stable. A moist east canyon wind will blow through the gaps of the central mountain chain early Thursday morning, surging PWATs to over 1" at KABQ and setting the stage for a more active Thursday. The center of the H5 ridge will be all the way in east TX by the time of convective initiation on Thursday afternoon, allowing southerly flow to develop across New Mexico. A moist and unstable atmosphere will support numerous showers and storms on Thursday afternoon, which will trek northward and expand in coverage through the afternoon. Deterministic QPF amounts are quite light (generally 0.2" or less in most areas), but locally heavier totals can be expected. The off-scar flash flood risk will be greatest in northeastern NM where several key ingredients are in place. First of all, there is plenty of moisture and instability. Second, a weak mid- level shortwave will provide additional forcing for storm initiation and maintenance as they come off the mountains into the highlands and plains. And lastly, east to southeast flow in the 850-700mb layer will provide a constant source of moisture advection that will make it difficult for the atmosphere to work itself over. For this reason, WPC has introduced a Slight risk area across the northeastern quadrant of the state and a Flash Flood Watch may be issued in future forecast packages. The threat for flash flooding in the Ruidoso are does increase on Thursday due to the potential for heavy rainfall rates, however confidence remains low to moderate at this time. The S to N storm motion has not been a heavy rainfall producer over the Ruidoso area burn scars thus far this monsoon season. Model QPF bullseyes generally show the heaviest rainfall off-scar which is good news, but it may not matter given their sensitivity. Soil moisture analysis shows 70%+ saturation over the burn scars, further supporting even more efficient runoff. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 151 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Friday's forecast is slightly more tricky than Thursday. The H5 ridge will still be well off to the east, but the upper-low over Baja California will finally eject northward into AZ. Storm motions will be faster than on Thursday, but the near uni-directional flow aloft will make it more difficult for storms to train and there is always a chance that debris clouds from the night before prevent destabilization and therefore limit rainfall rates. Saturday will be similar to Friday, except that precipitation chances come down a tad in response to dry air advection from the west. The downward trend in storm chances continues into Sunday and Monday. Both ENS and GEFS ensemble mean PWATs show a gradual drying trend, but each have a few members (including the deterministic Euro) which show a rapid drying trend, with only isolated storms over the high terrain as early as Monday. Isolated to scattered convection is the most likely scenario, with mountain areas favored for rain with this pattern since storms will struggle to maintain their strength as they move into the lower elevations. The downtrend in rain chances will coincide with an increase in temps, which will rise above seasonal averages early to mid-next week. This will introduce moderate heat risk concerns to the lower elevations of central and eastern NM, with minor risk elsewhere. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected over northern and western parts of the forecast area this afternoon and evening, with scattered to isolated activity elsewhere, except for dry weather along and east of a line from Fort Sumner to Dunken. Some storms may turn severe this afternoon and evening across far northeast areas with a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Elsewhere, wet microbursts from some thunderstorms will be capable of producing localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts up to 45 KT this afternoon and evening. Late tonight, isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to linger over western areas, and along and east of the Sangre de Cristo, Sandia, and Manzano Mountains. Further, late tonight until mid morning Thursday, areas of low clouds are expected to produce MVFR and IFR conditions as far south as I-40 and potentially as far west as the central mountain chain. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 151 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected the next 7 days. Scattered showers and storms today will become more numerous Thursday and Friday, bringing wetting rainfall to much of the region, The heaviest rainfall is likely in the northern mountains and northeast plains, where rainfall totals will likely exceed 2" in a few spots. The increased rain chances will help to keep temperatures below average, eventually warming above average early next week as precipitation chances drop. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 95 67 89 65 / 10 30 40 60 Dulce........................... 92 49 87 49 / 40 40 70 70 Cuba............................ 90 59 85 57 / 30 60 70 80 Gallup.......................... 89 55 84 53 / 60 60 80 70 El Morro........................ 85 55 81 54 / 70 60 80 80 Grants.......................... 90 56 84 56 / 50 60 70 70 Quemado......................... 86 55 81 57 / 90 80 70 80 Magdalena....................... 88 62 84 62 / 50 40 60 70 Datil........................... 85 54 80 56 / 80 50 70 60 Reserve......................... 89 52 86 54 / 90 70 80 60 Glenwood........................ 92 57 90 60 / 90 70 70 50 Chama........................... 84 49 79 48 / 50 40 80 70 Los Alamos...................... 86 63 82 60 / 40 50 80 70 Pecos........................... 87 58 80 57 / 50 50 80 70 Cerro/Questa.................... 85 55 82 54 / 60 60 90 70 Red River....................... 75 45 72 46 / 60 60 90 60 Angel Fire...................... 78 42 74 43 / 60 50 90 60 Taos............................ 88 55 83 54 / 50 50 80 60 Mora............................ 83 51 75 50 / 60 50 80 60 Espanola........................ 95 62 90 60 / 40 50 80 70 Santa Fe........................ 88 63 83 61 / 40 50 80 70 Santa Fe Airport................ 92 62 87 59 / 40 50 70 70 Albuquerque Foothills........... 95 70 89 67 / 30 50 60 80 Albuquerque Heights............. 96 70 90 67 / 20 50 60 70 Albuquerque Valley.............. 98 69 92 66 / 20 50 50 70 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 97 70 90 66 / 20 50 60 70 Belen........................... 97 65 91 64 / 20 40 40 70 Bernalillo...................... 98 68 91 65 / 30 50 60 70 Bosque Farms.................... 97 66 90 63 / 20 50 40 70 Corrales........................ 98 69 92 66 / 20 50 60 70 Los Lunas....................... 97 67 90 64 / 20 50 40 70 Placitas........................ 94 67 88 64 / 30 50 60 70 Rio Rancho...................... 97 69 91 66 / 20 50 60 70 Socorro......................... 98 69 93 68 / 20 40 40 60 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 89 60 83 58 / 30 50 70 70 Tijeras......................... 90 62 84 60 / 30 50 60 70 Edgewood........................ 90 57 85 56 / 30 40 60 60 Moriarty/Estancia............... 92 57 85 55 / 30 40 60 60 Clines Corners.................. 85 57 79 56 / 30 40 60 60 Mountainair..................... 89 59 83 58 / 30 40 50 60 Gran Quivira.................... 88 59 82 59 / 30 40 50 60 Carrizozo....................... 91 65 85 65 / 30 20 50 50 Ruidoso......................... 84 59 78 58 / 40 10 60 30 Capulin......................... 84 54 77 54 / 50 70 70 60 Raton........................... 89 54 81 54 / 50 70 80 50 Springer........................ 90 57 82 56 / 40 60 80 50 Las Vegas....................... 86 55 79 54 / 40 50 70 60 Clayton......................... 92 60 83 63 / 20 80 40 50 Roy............................. 88 59 81 59 / 20 60 60 60 Conchas......................... 95 65 90 65 / 5 40 40 60 Santa Rosa...................... 93 64 87 63 / 10 30 40 50 Tucumcari....................... 93 63 89 64 / 0 30 20 50 Clovis.......................... 96 67 93 67 / 0 10 10 40 Portales........................ 96 68 93 67 / 0 10 10 30 Fort Sumner..................... 95 67 93 67 / 5 20 20 40 Roswell......................... 100 72 97 72 / 0 5 10 20 Picacho......................... 93 64 89 64 / 20 5 30 30 Elk............................. 89 62 86 61 / 30 5 40 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...44
The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 48 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:09 UTC.
5 flash flood, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain over the South Fork burn scar resulted in floodwaters overtopping Main Road Bridge 2. A swiftwater rescue was also conducted at Sleepy Hollow Bridge.
Quarter to ping pong ball size hail with accumulation of dime to nickel size hail on roadways. Location estimated via radar.
Flash Flooding made Trigg Road impassable near the confluence of Conejo and Vallentine Creeks with a concrete culvert becoming inundated and damaged. Location is approximate.
Heavy rains over the South Fork and Salt burn scars near Ruidoso produced flash flooding. Water and debris overflowed U.S. Highway 70 at Sudderth Dr. and Ruidoso Downs, White Mountain Dr., Gavilan Canyon Rd. from Alto Cafe to Meander, and Alpine Village Road. The Cherokee Mobile Home village was evacuated with swiftwater rescues performed there, and at Big-O Tires and on Friedenbloom Drive. Damage is an estimate.
Heavy rains over the Laguna burn scar produced water and debris over a dirt road making it impassable.
Heavy rain over the Hermit's Peak/Calf Canyon burn scar produced high flow in an arroyo feeding into Manuelitas Creek. This overflowed banks and splashed over the bridge on County Road A4A.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1264494, 1264495, 1264496, 1264497, 1264498, 1264499.